Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015ENGLISH ABSTRACT : In this study we look at the syndemic of substance abuse and drug-related crime in
the Western Cape province of South Africa. The intent of this study is to provoke critical
thinking about the possibilities systems thinking and system dynamics posses for
social and health challenges in a diverse and complex environment like that of South
Africa, especially the Western Cape. This study ventures into cross-discipline work
between Epidemiology, Biomathematics and System Dynamics, with the hope of encouraging
researchers from different fields to collaborate in order to curb the scourge of
substance abuse and drug-related crime in South Africa. Substance abuse and the associated
health and social hazards such as drug-related crime is a major problem in the
Western Cape. Drug-related crime cases reported by the South African Police Services
(SAPS) for the Western Cape exhibited a 311.5% growth in the past decade. This highlights
how the reduction of substance abuse and drug-related crime within theWestern
Cape province, will be an elixir for the safety and development of the communities. The
fight against substance abuse has been driven by a multi-sectorial approach involving
several government departments, non-governmental organisations and communities.
With systems thinking the assumption is that the world is systemic, which means that
phenomena is understood to be an emergent property of the interrelated whole. Firstly,
using non-linear ordinary differential equations, we formulate a deterministic mathematical
model for the substance abuse and drug-related crime syndemic, evaluate the
threshold number and use sensitivity analysis to analyze the model. Secondly, a dynamic
system, called the Substance Abuse and Drug-related Crime in theWestern Cape
(SADC-WC) system is constructed using the STELLA in order to explore and classify the
underlying relationships and structures within the substance abuse and drug-related
crime system. Both the sensitivity analysis, and the simulations of the SADC-WC system
indicate that an increase of successful convictions will have a significant influence
on the syndemic, and promise to reduce drug-related crime cases.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : In hierdie studie ondersoek on die syndemie (‘syndemic’) van dwelmmisbruik en dwelmverwante
misdaad in die Wes-Kaap provinsie, in Suid-Afrika. Die moontlikhede wat
sistemiese denke en dinamiese sisteme inhou vir sosiale en gesondheid kwale in ’n diverse
en komplekse omgewing soos Suid-Afrika, word ondersoek. Hierdie studie waag
interdisiplinêre werk tussen Epidemiologie, Biowiskunde en Dinamiese sisteme, met
die hoop om navorsers van verskillende velde aan te moedig om saam te werk om
die plaag van dwelmmisbruik en dwelm-verwante misdaad in Suid-Afrika te bekamp.
Dwelmmisbruik en die gepaardgaande gesondheid en maatskaplike gevare soos dwelmverwante
misdaad is ’n groot probleem in dieWes-Kaap. Die SAPD se vermelde dwelmverwante
midaad het ’n groei van 311,5% ondergaan in die afgelope dekade, en is aanduidend
vir hoe die beheer en beperking van dwelmmisbruik en dwelm-verwante misdaad
in die Wes-Kaap provinsie bevordering van beide die veiligheid en ontwikkeling
van die gemeenskap sal verseker. Dit beklemtoon hoe die vermindering van dwelmmisbruik
en dwelm-verwante misdaad in dieWes-Kaapland, sal ’n elikser vir die veiligheid
en ontwikkeling van die gemeenskappe. Die stryd teen dwelmmisbruik is gedryf deur
’n multi-sektorale benadering waarby verskeie regeringsdepartemente, nie-regerings
organisasies en gemeenskappe. Stelsels denke en dinamiese sisteme is gebasseur op die
aanname, dat die wÃłreld is sistemiese en dat verskynsels verstaan word ten opsigte
van die ontluikende eienskap van die omvattende geheel. Eerstens stel ons ’n kompartementele
model op wat deur nie-liniêre gewone differensiële vergelykings beskryf kan
word vir die dwelmmisbruik en dwelm-verwante misdaad epidemies. Ons evalueer
die drumpel getal en gebruik sensitiwiteitsanalise om die parameters van die model te
analiseer. Tweedens, is ’n dinamiese sisteem genaamd die Middelmisbruik en dwelmverwante
misdaad in dieWes-Kaap (SADC-WC) stelsel gebou met behulp van die STELLA
platform om te verken en klassifiseer die onderliggende verhoudings en strukture binne
die dwelmmisbruik en dwelm-verwante misdaad stelsel. Beide die sensitiwiteitsanalise,
en die simulasies van die SADC-WC stelsel dui aan dat ’n toename in suksesvolle
vonisse ’n beduidende invloed op die epidemies sal hê; en beloof om sake van dwelmverwante
misdaad te verminder
