Sponsored Report (for Acquisition Research Program)The need to effectively and efficiently provide emergency supplies and services is increasing all over the world.  We investigate four policy options''prepositioning supplemental resources, preemptive as well as phased deployment of assets, and a surge of supplies and services''as potential strategies for responding to a disaster.  We illustrate the linkage between our four policy options and a disaster classification based upon disaster localization (dispersed or local) and speed of disaster onset (slow or sudden).  We summarize our work by introducing a matrix that aligns logistics strategies with disaster types in order to assist policy-makers in their resource management decisions.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Apte, Aruna

Yoho, Keenan D.

Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)The need to effectively and efficiently provide emergency supplies and services is increasing all over the world. We investigate policy options: prepositioning supplemental resources, preemptive as well as phased deployment of assets, and surge of supplies and services. We hypothesize that there exists a correlation between these policies and our disaster classification based on localization (dispersed or local) of the disaster and its speed of onset (slow or sudden). We believe that the creation of a matrix and designation of policies based on disaster type will facilitate the policy makers'' decision process. Exploring the efficacy of each policy option with respect to several crisis scenarios to assist policy makers to better prepare their disaster response is critical in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Acquisition Research Progra

Yoho, Keenan

Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School

Strategies for Logistics in Case of a Natural Disaster

Sponsored Report (for Acquisition Research Program)The need to effectively and efficiently provide emergency supplies and services is increasing all over the world.  We investigate four policy options''prepositioning supplemental resources, preemptive as well as phased deployment of assets, and a surge of supplies and services''as potential strategies for responding to a disaster.  We illustrate the linkage between our four policy options and a disaster classification based upon disaster localization (dispersed or local) and speed of disaster onset (slow or sudden).  We summarize our work by introducing a matrix that aligns logistics strategies with disaster types in order to assist policy-makers in their resource management decisions.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

Symposium Presentation (for Acquisition Research Program)Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

Calhoun: The NPS Institutional ArchiveReports and Technical Reports All Technical Reports Collection2011-05-12Strategies for Logistics in Case of aNatural DisasterApte, Arunahttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/33708Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICYStrategies for Logistics in Case of a Natural DisasterAruna Apteauapte@nps.eduKeenan D. Yohokdyoho@nps.edu8th Annual Acquisition Research SymposiumMay 11 12  2011- ,Operations and Logistics ManagementGraduate School of Business and Public PolicyNaval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CAGraduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICYIn 2009 – there were 335 natural disasters– that killed 10,655 persons– affected more than 119 million others– caused over $41.3 billion in economic damages2Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Questions of interest• How can a state of supply preparedness be established and maintained? • What are appropriate logistics strategies for different disaster types and during various stages of the disaster lifecycle? Answers depend on he likelihood of a disaster in the area–– the expected onset speed of the disaster– volume and weight of supplies to be moved– the expected magnitude of humanitarian relief required3Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Likelihood of disasterEarthquake – United StatesAruna Apte, Keenan D. YohoGraduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School 4Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Likelihood of disasterEarthquake – World5Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Likelihood of disaster6Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Likelihood of disaster7Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICYOur research focuses on four disaster scenarios:1 di d  dd t di t  . sperse , su en-onse sas ers2. dispersed, slow-onset disasters3 localized  slow onset disasters. , -4. localized, sudden-onset disasters 8Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Classification of Disasters (Adapted from Apte 2009) II: Dispersed and Slow OnsetI: Dispersed and Sudden OnsetDispersed L tiIII: Localized and Slow OnsetIV: Localized and Sudden OnsetLocalizedoca onTi9Slow Onset Sudden OnsetmeAruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICYWe divide the life cycle of a disaster into three stages: 1. being prepared in the pre-disaster stage2. response as the disaster strikes 3. recovery in post-disaster10Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICYLife Cycle of Disaster Response(Source: Apte 2009)PREPAREDNESS RESPONSE RECOVERYRampU SustainmentRampDAsset PrepositioningInfrastructure Preparationp ownDisaster EventPre-Disaster Post-Disaster11Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICYThe classification suggests – logistics execution is less onerous in the case of localized, slow-onset disasters because there may be adequate lead time to prepare for the response– dispersed, slow-onset disasters may take substantial planning, resource allocation and coordination– sudden-onset disasters, even if localized, create problems in all three stages of the lifecycle of the disaster12Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY MethodologyReview of the relevant logistics literature  Examination of disaster exemplarsII: Dispersed and Slow OnsetI: Dispersed and Sudden OnsetDispersed HurricanePandemicIII: Localized and Slow OnsetIV: Localized and Sudden OnsetLocalizedLocationVirulent Disease outbreakEarthquakeSlow Onset Sudden OnsetTimeConsideration of di  lif lInfrastructureRampUp SustainmentRampDownAsset PrepositioningPREPAREDNESS RESPONSE RECOVERYsaster ecyc eIdentified logistics strategies associated with each disaster 13 PreparationDisaster EventPre-Disaster Post-DisasterAruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  type and associated lifecycleGraduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICYSome relevant logistics lit t   •Coordinating activities and inventories over a spectrum of era urestages in the supply chain (Schoenmeyr and Graves 2009). S i  i  l  d  l i   • trateg c nventory p acement un er evo v ng or pre-determined forecasts (Schoenmeyr and Graves 2008, Simpson 1958) and under uncertain and non-stationary demand Graves and Willems (2002). •Managing humanitarian operations is similar to the management of response supply chains however there is a much higher level of uncertainty in an adverse environment.14Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Examination of disaster • Dispersed Suddenexemplars– 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami• Dispersed Slow– 2009 Avian Flu Epidemic• Localized Slow– 2005 Hurricane Katrina• Localized Sudden2 H E h k– 010 aiti art qua e15Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Examination of policies • We investigate four policy options based upon strategies that have been effective in the military and rivate sectorp :– prepositioning supplemental resources in or near the incident location; – proactive deployment of assets in advance of a local request;– phased deployment of assets, analogous to the “just in time” inventory control philosophy;– “surge” deployment of manpower and equipment from locations outside the disaster area.16Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Prepositioning• Pre-positioning in the private sector– spare parts in post-sales product support • location and timing of requests is not known exactly and can be iuncerta n– seasonal inventories • typically moved closer to retail during the peak season, then moved back into distribution centers in the off-season• Prepositioning in the military– Prepositioned stocks on land or at sea • in or near anticipated contingency areas• In a hardened or protected “safe haven” 17Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Prepositioning• Is prepositioning the best strategy for all types of disasters? • How should adequate prepositioned disaster relief inventory be established and sustained over time to i l d  th  t ti  f i h bl  t k ? nc u e e ro a on o per s a e s oc s• How can information regarding the location, quantity, and condition of prepositioned inventory be shared and what effect would this information sharing have on the total investment of prepositioned stocks? H  li bl   h  i l l  li  if i  i  • ow re a e are t e potent a supp y nes t sdetermined that supplies should be virtually stockpiled?• Should supplies be sourced locally or from outside the disaster zone? 18Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICYArmy Prepositioned Stocks Example of military prepositioning and forward distribution(APS) and DLA DistributionDDDEAPS-2APS-4DDKSDDDKDDGMDDOJDDYJDDPHDDSIAPS-1 (CONUS)Diego GarciaGuamAPS-3 (Afloat)APS-5 (SWA)Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  19Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Proactive deployment Refers to moving supplies into an area in advance of a local requestDays until landfall5432120Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Phased deploymentRefers to pushing inventory into a disaster area as it is needed and in the quantity in which it is needed 21Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Utilize surge capacityA surge in the deployment of manpower and equipment from locations outside the disaster area is an alternative that, rather than relying on prepositioned physical inventory, plans for excess capacity to deliver personnel and materiel in case f  o an emergency.In the case of a surge strategy, the “prepositioning” is with respect to capacity rather than inventory  .Aruna Apte, Keenan D. YohoGraduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School 22Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY SurgeRefers to the deployment of large quantities of supplies to the affected area23Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICYPreliminary assignment of st ategies to lifec cleP li i  R l d  Lif l  f  DiA preliminary look at the previously mentioned four strategies related to the lifecycle of a disaster suggests the assignment of strategies as follows:r yPrepositioning Supplemental ResourcesPreemptive Deployment of Assets Phased Deployment of Assets Surge of Supplies and Services Logistics StrategyPhased Deployment of Assets o c es e ate to ecyc e o a saster (Adapted from Apte 2009)PREPAREDNESS RESPONSE RECOVERYResponse PhaseRampUp SustainmentRampDownAsset PrepositioningLogistics PostureInfrastructure Preparation24Disaster EventPre-Disaster Post-DisasterDisaster LifecycleAruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Contribution• The proposed research will – Develop conceptual models that will serve as the theoretical base for future empirical work investigating appropriate policy options for different classifications of disasters– Contribute to a better understanding of strategies in logistics for HA/DR– Recommend strategies in logistics that are appropriate  diff   f di  d  h  diff  to erent types o sasters an to t e erentlifecycles of a disaster25Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY Way Forward Supplementing our literature review and analysis of disaster types and the disaster lifecycle, we will employ process analysis, cost analysis and specific case studies to develop policy options to respond to specific disaster types26Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  Graduate School of BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICYQUESTIONS?27Aruna Apte, Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School  

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Strategies for Logistics in Case of a Natural Disaster

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