The threat to US Operations in the Middle East has changed significantly since the end of the Cold War, and although counterintelligence methodology has changed with it, additional modifications are needed. This thesis demonstrates the gap that has emerged in the ability of counterintelligence forces to counter the threat. Increased military presence in the Middle East and the removal of the Cold War's checks and balances increase the impact of "rogue states" and non-state actors. Current counterintelligence methodology fails to adequately address the non-state-based threat. Revolutionary information technologies and the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons ensure that non- state actors will pose a counterintelligence threat as great, or greater, than the state-based threat. The implication of this is significant. The Air Force Office of Special Investigations (AFOSI), the USAF Agency tasked with counterintelligence support, must restructure itself to meet this emerging threat. A Classified annex to this thesis is published under separate cover. This annex outlines current AFOSI methodology and makes policy recommendations to allow AFOSI to better address the non-state-based threat.http://archive.org/details/theshiftingparad1094513527U.S. Air Force (U.S.A.F.) author.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
