Air  traffic  demand  is  increasing,  but  capacity  is  constrained  by  an  antiquated  air  traffic control (ATC) infrastructure.  The number of air traffic passengers in the U.S.  is  expected  to  grow  from  738  million  in  2005  to  1  billion  in  2015.   The number of commercial airline flights is expected to grow from 13 million in 2005 to 15 million in 2015.  [22] Figure 1-1 shows the growth in air traffic demand in the United States in recent years.This research was funded by the Federal Aviation Administration's Surveillance and Broadcast Services program under contract DTFA01-C-00030

Hu, Xiaojie

DSpace@MIT

Technology Transition in the National Air Transportation System: Market Failure and Game Theoretic Analysis with Application to ADS-B

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2008.Includes bibliographical references (p. 103-105).This research analyzes the problem of technology transition in the national air transportation system, focusing on the implementation of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B). ADS-B is a key technology in the Federal Aviation Administration's plan to modernize the national civil air transportation surveillance system. Data regarding airline perception of benefits, barriers, and knowledge of ADS-B is presented. Market mechanisms that could potentially cause technology implementation failure are identified through game theoretic analysis of airline interview data. Potential market failures identified include public goods failures, cost-benefit asymmetries, information asymmetries, and risk dominance. Potential institutional failures identified include organizational process failures and bureaucratic interests and politics. Government action to correct market failures is explored. Government mechanisms to correct market failures include technology value, support infrastructure development, positive incentives, putative measures, and mandates.by Xiaojie Hu.S.M