Climate change scenarios and behavioural change : Navigating between heuristics of deliberative planning processes and astroturfing

Abstract

In constructing normative scenarios images of the future are generated illustrating potential ways of living, travelling and consuming products and services where certain goals such as a reduced climate impact are fulfilled (Börjeson et al, 2006; Myers and Kitsuse, 2000). This paper analyses the sustainability framing of behavioural changes in such normative scenarios (Larsen and Höjer, 2007) and how it relates to the participatory processes used to generate the scenarios. We discuss this building on concepts of deliberative planning processes as a means to achieve legitimate, effective and sustainable futures (Connelly and Richardson, forthcoming; Hendriks et al., 2007). The theoretical arguments are combined with examples from environmental scenario construction in practice (Carlsson-Kanyama et al., 2003, Dreborg et al., forthcoming). This illustrates fields of tension arising when either sustainability or process values are veneering goals of a scenario making process. When focus is on content values such as reduced climate impact, the process values might be depreciated. On the other hand, when focus is on process values such as legitimacy, content sustainability and possibilities for actual change might be downgraded.QC 2012011