This paper deals with the background, development and calibration of a model of innovation-diffusion, designed to help allocate government field test and demonstration resources in support of a photovoltaic technology across sectors, regions and over time. The paper reviews current work in the area of diffusion and substitution models, and gives a brief review of current theory in the buyer behavior area.
A model is developed, drawing upon concepts in these areas, and its computer implementation is reviewed. The measures needed to calibrate the model are performed in the agricultural-irrigation sector in conjunction with a field installation in Mead, Nebraska.
The analysis of those results indicated that
- only three to four demonstration projects are needed to eliminate new product risk-perception among farmers;
- exposure to a working PV site makes farmers more aware of potential energy savings than does a description of the system;
- key factors associated with PV are
- newness/expense
- complexity of the system and use of untried concepts
- independence from traditional fuel sources.
- exposure to the site has little effect on preference;
- PV is acceptable to a wide range of farmers;
- a premium would be paid for the product.
Additional model developments and the potential of a model-use to support decision-making for government programs are reviewed
