In order to measure Japan's energy system's stability under
an uncertain future availability of energy resources, we built a
mathematical programming / economic equilibrium model based upon
linear programming techniques. Future uncertainty is expressed
as random variables with a given probability distribution, and
the economic equilibrium point is obtained by iterative
convergent computation.
Numerical experiments show an optimal energy supply-demand
structure with equilibrium prices of primary energy resources at
the future target year, then we obtain supply stability and
instability probabilities of our energy system. From shadow
price analysis of an optimal solution our energy policy is
quantitatively evaluated
