Extreme Events Decision Making in Transport Networks: A Holistic Approach Using Emergency Scenarios and Decision Making Theory

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel method to analyse decision-making during extreme events. The method is based on Decision-making Theory and aims at understanding how emergency managers make decisions during disasters. A data collection framework and an analysis method were conceptualized to capture participant’s behaviour, perception and understanding throughout a game-board simulation exercise, which emulates an earthquake disaster scenario affecting transport systems. The method evaluates the participant’s actions in order to identify decision-making patterns, strengths and weaknesses. A set of case studies has shown two typical patterns, namely: a) Support immediate rescue; b) Support lifelines recovery. Good decision-making practices regard to objective-oriented decision making, understanding of conflicting priorities and appropriate resource management. Weaknesses are associated with comprehending relationships between community/environment and projecting future scenarios. Overall, the case study’s results demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of the proposed method to analyse decision making during disasters