The Syrian and Iraqi crises revealed that Turkey cannot guarantee its own security without solid
cooperation from its western allies. As Erdogan transitions from prime minster to president, he
must recognize this reality

Balci, Bayram

SPIRE - Sciences Po Institutional REpository

SUMMARY
 
A New Turkish Foreign Policy?
Bayram Balci
OP-ED
AUGUST 27, 2014 WORLD POLICY BLOG
 
Earlier this month, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was elected Turkey’s new president,
carrying almost 52 percent of the vote. Having been in power since 2003, Erdogan may leverage
this victory for an additional five years in office. However, while elected in the first round and
possessing both experience and charisma, he will nevertheless face many challenges—particularly
in foreign policy, where his multiple miscalculations and blunders have considerably damaged
Turkey's image abroad. At the same time, this presidency marks the beginning of a new chapter in
Turkey’s history and could be a good opportunity for Erdogan to reset Turkish foreign policy, an
urgent task that won’t be easy to implement. 
One of the most successful and popular governments until now in Turkey, the ruling Justice and
Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi,  AKP )built ambitious and responsible foreign policy.
The government's “Zero Problems With Neighbors” policy, formulated by then Minister of Foreign
Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu, improved Turkey’s relations with almost every country in the Middle East.
Turkey subsequently got on good terms with Israel, Syria, and Iran, improved its traditionally tense
relations with Greece and Armenia, and became a mediator between several disputing countries.
As the Arab Spring developed, eliminating powerful dictators and giving Islamic nations hope for
liberty and democracy, Turkey reached the height of its popularity. Erdogan and his team were able
to showcase Turkey’s exemplary achievements – a strong economy, an Islamic democracy, and an
ambitious foreign policy – that made Turkey a model for Muslim countries in the region.  
However, Turkey’s prestige started to erode when the Arab Spring was blocked in Syria—the
country with which Turkey shares its longest border. Unable to convince its former ally Bashar
al-Assad to undertake reforms, Turkey started to support the opposition. However, Syria’s ongoing
conflict began to have dramatic consequences for Turkey's economy and security. Ankara
renounced its initial support of the moderate opposition,  irresponsibly deciding to support both
directly and indirectly the jihadist part of the Syrian opposition. Jabhat al Nusra and ISIS forces
benefited from Ankara’s ambiguous policy and emerged as the most dangerous forces in the region,
The Syrian and Iraqi crises revealed that Turkey cannot guarantee its own security without solid
cooperation from its western allies. As Erdogan transitions from prime minster to president, he
must recognize this reality.
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though Ankara denies it. In other words, Turkey’s interference in the Syrian conflict, though inspired
more by desperation and miscalculation than by adherence to the ideas of Jabhat al Nusrat and
ISIS, has contributed to Syria’s disintegration—a scenario that Ankara wanted to avoid at the
beginning of the Syrian crisis. 
Turkey’s mistakes and miscalculations in Iraq were also greatly detrimental to its foreign policy.
Accusing the Baghdad regime of a sectarian, pro-Shia policy, Erdogan nevertheless employed a
similar policy in the Middle East. In effect, Turkey has encouraged the Kurdish leaders to achieve a
de facto independence from Baghdad, In doing so, Turkey has contributed to the disintegration of
Iraq, as it did in Syria. Moreover, Turkey’s ambiguous attitude towards the Jihadists was a factor in
their strength in Syria and Iraq, creating a new jihadistan in the heart of the Middle East. 
In addition to a catastrophic policy with its two major neighbors, Turkey has also remained on bad
terms with Israel, cutting ties in May 2010 when a Turkish humanitarian convoy linked to the AKP
government was targeted by the Israeli army, Turkey was just about to normalize its relations with
Israel, a rapprochement made necessary by the deterioration of security issues in the Middle East;
however, the Israeli army’s Operation Protective Edge broke out and put a new obstacle in the way
. 
Turkey's relations with the West are no better. When Erdogan rose to power, he spent his two first
mandates building a strong relationship with the EU, and Turkey's EU candidacy made significant
steps forward. However, the relations between Ankara and Brussels have since deteriorated
considerably—due to the Europeans' reluctance to admit Turkey into the EU, and Turkey’s
increasingly authoritarian domestic policies, 
In light of Turkey’s tumultuous foreign policy, the new president’s task is huge. Turkey currently
stands on good terms with Hamas, Iran, and the Kurds of Iraq. Its relations with the U.S. and EU are
tense, but very friendly with Putin’s Russia. This situation cannot be satisfying for a country with
aspirations of entering into the top ten greatest nations of the world by 2023, when the republic will
celebrate its centennial anniversary. 
Turkey must, therefore, establish a new foreign policy in the Middle East, Erdogan’s current strategy
is not paying off. His ambivalent relations with ISIS did not keep these jihadists from kidnapping
Turkish diplomats (who remain hostages in Iraq), while the Turkish consulate in Mosul became
headquarters for the terrorist organization. In terms of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Erdogan’s
sincere personal sympathy for the Palestinian cause should not stop him from reestablishing good
relations with Israel. If Turkey wants to play a positive role in the Middle East, it must be able to talk
to all the major actors in the region, including Israel. 
If Erdogan wants to give his country a real chance of resolving its security concerns in the Middle
East, a new relationship with the West is crucial. To be fair, Erdogan is not solely responsible for the
deterioration of relations between his country and the U.S. The Obama administration rightly
denounces Erdogan’s authoritarianism, particularly its assault against the media and interferences
with the justice system. However, the U.S. cannot blame him for his relations with the jihadists in
Syria, for the U.S. essentially abandoned him in the Syrian crisis as Washington’s inaction
weakened the moderate Syrian opposition. 
As prime minister, Erdogan strengthened his country during his first two terms. Elected for a third
term in 2011, he attempted to use this strength to assert more autonomy and independence in
Turkey's foreign policy. The Syrian and Iraqi crises revealed that Turkey cannot guarantee its own
security without solid cooperation from its western allies. As Erdogan transitions from prime minster
to president, he must recognize this reality. 
This article was originally published in the World Policy Blog.
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About the Middle East Program
The Carnegie Middle East Program combines in-depth local knowledge with incisive comparative
analysis to examine economic, sociopolitical, and strategic interests in the Arab world. Through
detailed country studies and the exploration of key crosscutting themes, the Carnegie Middle East
Program, in coordination with the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, provides analysis and
recommendations in both English and Arabic that are deeply informed by knowledge and views
from the region. The program has special expertise in political reform and Islamist participation in
pluralistic politics.
 
Source http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/08/27/new-turkish-foreign-policy/hmch
A New Turkish Foreign Policy? - Carnegie Endowment for In... http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/08/27/new-turkish-foreig...
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A New Turkish Foreign Policy?

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A New Turkish Foreign Policy?

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