Elbern, Hendrik

Friese, Elmar

Kasradze, Ketevan

Paschalidi, Zoi

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Inverse Modeling for the anthropogenic emission estimation by 4D-var

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 16, EGU2014-6776, 2014EGU General Assembly 2014© Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.Inverse Modeling for the anthropogenic emission estimation by 4D-varZoi Paschalidi (1), Hendrik Elbern (1,2), Elmar Friese (1), and Ketevan Kasradze (1)(1) Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany (zp@eurad.uni-koeln.de),(2) Research Centre Jülich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research – Troposphere (IEK-8), Jülich, GermanyA key to better understanding the complex atmospheric processes is the quantitative determination of the emissionpatterns. Emissions of urban areas contribute to influence greater areas than the actual city area. These influencescan be local (air-pollution, heat islands), regional (air-pollution, precipitation) or potentially global (long rangetransport and vertical transport into the UTLS levels).That is why our study deals with the estimations of the anthropogenic emission strength and the chemical evolu-tion of urban air-sheds, using the techniques of Inverse Modeling. The chemical four-dimensional data assimilationsystem that is applied within the European Air Pollution and Dispersion chemistry-transport model and its inversemodeling module (EURAD-IM), is already generalized by including not only chemical state estimates, but alsoemission rate optimization. This achievement follows the objectives of data assimilation and provides an accurateand consistent image of the atmosphere.In the present work an extension of this state is done for a better estimation of the emission factors. A novelapproach has been produced, which gives the best estimation of the multivariate covariance matrices of the opti-mization problem. This is done by updating the emission factor error covariance matrix to 24 emitted species, aswell as by adapting the adjoint code to the new online emission model by TNO.Joint optimization of the initial values of the chemical constituents and the emission rates takes place in the studyof two special episodes in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) region in Germany: an ozone episode in July 2010 andan aerosol episode during the winter of 2012. The nesting techniques that are applied go from 15 km resolution, forthe European domain, down to 5 km resolution for Central Europe, and is scheduled to end with 1 km resolutionfor NRW, implying an indispensable knowledge of the emission patterns. For the assimilation, different kind ofobservational data are used, giving a more efficient result.

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Inverse Modeling for the anthropogenic emission estimation by 4D-var

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