Nagai, Y.

Pachauri, S.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

2005 2030 - No new policies00.20.40.60.81.21.41.61.81ALRI, Children < 5COPD, Women > 30COPD,  Men > 30Heart Disease, Adults > 30Potential lives saved Deaths in MillionsFig 5: Premature deaths attributable to solid fule use in homes02004006008000.00.30.60.91.2Cumulative costs of policies for cookingbetween 2010-2030 in billion 2005 US$Population without access to modern fuels in 2030 in billionsNo New Policyfuel price support 25%fuel price support 50%fuel price support 75%gaining accessSub-Saharan AfricaSouth AsiaPaciﬁc AsiaNo credit accesscredit access at 30%credit access at 15%    Fig 4: Relative cost-eectiveness of fuel price support (FPS) policies and microcredit schemes for stove prchasesUrban/RuralPopulationHouseholdsDemand for energy goodsFuel Preferences(energy goods only)Urban/RuralGDPMicroﬁnanceIncomeDistributionHouseholdSurvey DataInconvenienceCostExternal data / assumptionsDemandDiscountRatesPoliciesFuel Price SupportFuel PricesProductionEnergy SectorApplianceCostCarbon PriceConsumerFuel PricesElectriﬁcationFig 3: Schematic overview of the MESSAGE-Access Model02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000R0 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 U1U2U3U4U5Rural UrbanResidential Final Energy [MJ/cap-yr]- ElectricityLPGKeroseneCharcoalFirewood02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000R0 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 U1U2U3U4U5Rural UrbanResidential Final Energy [MJ/cap-yr]ElectricityLPGKeroseneCharcoalFirewood                          Sub-Saharan Africa                                                               South AsiaFig 2: Household energy use patterns across rural and urban expenditure quintiles in 2005Number of people without access to electricity per km2Number of people usingsolid fuel for cooking per km20-50  >2500 50-250>700450-700120-4500-120Uninhabited area and area with access to modern energyFig 1: Current global distribution of population without access to electricity and modern cooking fules + stoves in homesWe estimate that universal access to modern cooking stoves and fuels and complete rural electrication by 2030 is achievable in South and Pacic Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa if additional investments of USD2005 62 billion are made annually (~ 5% of global energy sector investments today).Dedicated policies and targets will be needed to achieve these goals. Universal access to modern cooking stoves and fuels can most eectively be achieved only when policies that lower modern fuel costs (e.g. subsidies on LPG) are implemented in combination with poli-cies that lower modern stove costs (either through cheaper credit from mi-cronance institutions or grants for stove purchases). The successful implementation of such policies can result in multiple benets. The most important of these are im-provements in human health. About 1.5 million lives could be saved in 2030, if all households gain access to modern fuels and stoves. Household demand for electricity and modern cooking fuels will rise due to im-proved access to these energy carriers, but total household nal energy use could decrease because of large eciency gains of transitioning away from the current in-ecient use of traditional solid fuels and kerosene/paran. The total greenhouse gas emissions impacts are thus also, likely to be negligible.•  Ambitious targets and dedicated policies are vital to achieving universal modern energy access goals by 2030. •  Additional investments of USD2005 62 billion per year are required till 2030, necessi-tating extra nancing from governments, the international community and private sector.•  Technological options and program design need to be context specific, locally ac-cepted and integrated with wider developmental and poverty alleviation eorts.•  Significant capacity building is required to support deployment of new technologies in remote rural regions and provide innovative nancing mechanisms to make these technologies aordable at a commercial scale.•  Tying income generation policies to energy access policies is desirable to raise living standards and improve the viability of such eorts in the longer term.•  About 20% of earth’s population is unelectrified. Another, almost equivalent number has irregular and unreliable access to electricity.•  Over 40% of global population depends on traditional solid fuels (unprocessed biomass – rewood, crop and animal residues – or coal and charcoal) for cooking and heating. •  A lack of access to modern energy has negative consequences for human health, well-being, and productivity. It also contributes to damages to the local and global environment.•  Without additional new policies and targets, we estimate by 2030: o The number of people dependent on solid fuels may  rise from current levels due to population growth;o About 800 million people in rural South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will stay unelectried. Results – Costs Signicant, But Potential Benets MultipleChallengesWe started with a bottom-up assessment of existing energy demands, choices, access, income levels and ability to pay of diverse household groups, distinguishing between rural and urban regions and ve or more expenditure quintiles or classes. We focused on those regions where the existing access gap is the largest. Using IIASA projections of urbanization, income growth and population growth, we then estimated how household energy demands were likely to develop over the next two decades.These data inputs and projections were used to calibrate a dynamic linear optimiza-tion model – MESSAGE-Access to assess the likely impacts of alternative policy sce-narios for achieving access goals by 2030.Analysis - Methods & ModelConclusions and Policy ImplicationsFor Further Details Refer to:Riahi, K. et al., 2012: Chapter 17 - Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Ap-plied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 1203-1306.Pachauri, S. et al., 2012: Chapter 19 - Energy Access for Development. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 1401-1458.Policy Scenarios for Achieving Universal Modern Energy Access by 2030Dr. Shonali Pachauri (Energy Program, IIASA; Vienna, Austria)Yu Nagai (Energy Program, IIASA; Vienna, Austria                    Technische Universität Wien; Vienna, Austria)

Policy Scenarios for Achieving Universal Modern Energy Access by 2030

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