Schepaschenko, D.

Shvidenko, A.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 15, EGU2013-10406, 2013EGU General Assembly 2013© Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License.Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forestsAnatoly Shvidenko and Dmitry SchepaschenkoInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361 Austria (shvidenk@iiasa.ac.at)On-going climatic changes substantially accelerate current fire regimes in Northern Eurasian ecosystems, partic-ularly in forests. During 1998-2012, wildfires enveloped on average ∼10.5 M ha year-1 in Russia with a largeannual variation (between 3 and 30 M ha) and average direct carbon emissions at ∼150 Tg C year-1. Catastrophicfires, which envelope large areas, spread in usually incombustible wetlands, escape from control and provide ex-traordinary negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, economics, infrastructure, environment, and health ofpopulation, become a typical feature of the current fire regimes. There are new evidences of correlation betweencatastrophic fires and large-scale climatic anomalies at a continental scale. While current climatic predictions sug-gest the dramatic warming (at the average at 6-7 ºC for the country and up to 10-12ºC in some northern continentalregions), any substantial increase of summer precipitation does not expected. Increase of dryness and instabilityof climate will impact fire risk and severity of consequences. Current models suggest a 2-3 fold increase of thenumber of fires by the end of this century in the boreal zone. They predict increases of the number of catastrophicfires; a significant increase in the intensity of fire and amount of consumed fuel; synergies between different typesof disturbances (outbreaks of insects, unregulated anthropogenic impacts); acceleration of composition of the gasemissions due to enhanced soil burning. If boreal forests would become a typing element, the mass mortality oftrees would increase fire risk and severity. Permafrost melting and subsequent change of hydrological regimesvery likely will lead to the degradation and destruction of boreal forests, as well as to the widespread irreversiblereplacement of forests by other underproductive vegetation types. A significant feedback between warming andescalating fire regimes is very probable in Russia and particularly in the permafrost areas. Overall, Russia shouldexpect a disproportionate escalation of fire regimes compared to increasing climatic fire danger. Thus, developmentand implementation of an efficient adaptation strategy is a pressing problem of current forest management of thecountry. An appropriate system of forest fire protection which would be able to meet challenges of future climatesis a corner stone of such a strategy. We consider possible systems solutions of this complex problem including (1)integrated ecological and socio-economic analysis of current and future fire regimes; (2) regional requirements toand specific features of a new paradigm of forest fire protection in the boreal zone of Northern Eurasia; (3) antici-patory strategy of the prevention of large-scale disturbances in forests, including adaptation of forest landscapes tothe future climates (regulation of tree composition; setup of relevant spatial structure of forest landscapes; etc.); (4)implementation of an effective system of forest monitoring as part of integrated observing systems; (5) transitionto ecologically-friendly systems of industrial development of northern territories; (6) development of new/ im-provement of existing legislation and institutional frameworks of forest management which would be satisfactoryto react on challenges of climate change; and (6) international cooperation.

Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forests

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)