Amann, M.

Bertok, I.

Borken-Kleefeld, J.

Kiesewetter, G.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

J Borken‐Kleefeld/IIASA 12/13/20121The impact of future vehicles on pollutant emissions and air quality in Europe7th A3PS Conference „ECO-MOBILITY 2012”Vienna, 11-12 Dec 2012 Jens Borken-Kleefeld, Gregor Kiesewetter, Imrich Bertok, Markus AmannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis  (IIASA)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schloss Laxenburg/Lower AustriaWhat is IIASA? IIASA is an international scientific institute that conducts policy-oriented research into problems too large or too complex to be solved by a single country, founded in 1972.“Who” is IIASA? Nearly 200 natural and social scientists, mathematicians, and engineers from over 35 countries research at IIASA. J Borken‐Kleefeld/IIASA 12/13/20122Widespread air quality problems in Europe EEA 2012 –Air quality in Europe• How big is contribution from road vehicles – now and in future?• Possible improvement through alternative fuels or vehicles?PM10 and PM2.5 limits exceeded – not only at traffic sitesEEA 2012 – Air quality in EuropeLimit value for protection of human health: 40 μm/m3 annual average, not to be exceeded .All stations mean [PM10] 2001-2010J Borken‐Kleefeld/IIASA 12/13/20123Trend development of PM10 emissions and their health impact in EU27IIASA 2012 – gains.iiasa.ac.at/TSAPRoadNon-roadAbrasion etc.Low share of emissions from road vehicles, declining.20202010 2030Environmental objective could be met in 2020 with additional measures – yet little progress beyond.PM10 emissions all sectorsNO2 limit values exceeded – particularly at traffic sitesEEA 2012 – Air quality in EuropeAll stations mean [NO2] 2001-2010Limit value for protection of human health: 40 μm/m3 annual average.J Borken‐Kleefeld/IIASA 12/13/20124Trend development of NOx emissions and exceedance of [NO2] limit values in EU27IIASA 2012 – gains.iiasa.ac.at/TSAPRoadNon-roadAvg. [NO2] – baselineTraffic stationsurban stationsHigh share of traffic emissions, declining Exceedance at traffic stations strongly declining….IF….NOx emissions all sectorsTrend development of NOx emissions and exceedance of [NO2] limit values in EU27IIASA 2012 – gains.iiasa.ac.at/TSAPRoadNon-roadHigh share of traffic emissions, declining Exceedance at traffic stations strongly declining….IF EURO 6 diesel cars have lower unit NOx emissions.Euro 6 failureEuro 6 successTraffic stationsAvg. [NO2] NOx emissions all sectorsJ Borken‐Kleefeld/IIASA 12/13/20125RoadNon-roadCO2 emissions all sectorsTrend development of CO2 emissions in EU27Official EC projection: Trend 2020: -14% vs. 2005Share road in total emissions: 22%CO2 emissions road vehiclesIIASA 2012 –gains.iiasa.ac.at/TSAPTrend 2030: -3% vs. 2005Share cars/trucks in total road : 55%/25%2020=1990-20% vs. 1990How much can alternative fuels and vehicles deliver?‐200‐150‐100‐50050100150200250‐12%‐10%‐8%‐6%‐4%‐2%0%Cost curve: By vehicle type - EU27 in 2020 (lifetime payback, GHG)Euro / t CO2CarReduction below 2020 BLImproved ICEBiofuelsHybrid carsData: A40 25/05/09J Borken‐Kleefeld/IIASA 12/13/20126‐200‐150‐100‐50050100150200250‐12%‐10%‐8%‐6%‐4%‐2%0%Abatement for road vehicles - EU27 in 2020 (lifetime payback, GHG)Euro / t CO2CarReduction below 2020 BLImproved ICEBiofuelsHybrid carsLDTRetrofitHDTAerodyn. + tyresRetrofitBiofuelsAuxiliariesData: A40 25/05/0960 Euro / t CO2 = 0.15 Euro / lBorken-Kleefeld et al. 2009, data need update, but ranking indicative. Strongly declining pollutant emissions from national road transport, yet• NO2 compliance depends on effectiveness of EURO 6 for diesel cars.• Local conditions might differ from national average.Zero-emission vehicles might help in specific cases, also reducing traffic noise.For CO2 reduction intensified efforts needed:• Much more efficient conventional and alternative vehicles and• Sustainable low-C fuels and• Adapted driving and purchase behaviour and• Improved freight logistics and• Modal shift and• Adapted land use planning and• Demand management and…Not addressed: Accidents, congestion, landscape fragmentation, resource infrastructure financing,…SummaryJ Borken‐Kleefeld/IIASA 12/13/20127Further readingReports and calculations on the EU’s Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution gains.iiasa.ac.at/TSAPDr. Jens Borken-KleefeldIIASAEmail: Borken@iiasa.ac.atTel.: +43/2236/807-570The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent the positions of IIASA or its collaborating and supporting organizations.The orientation and content here cannot be taken as indicating the position of the European Commission or its services.Contribution of local & urban road traffic to [PM10]J Borken‐Kleefeld/IIASA 12/13/20128Problems linked to traffic & light duty diesel vehiclesNOx/CO2 vol* 10000Year manufactured 1980 -2010Remote sensing UKCarslaw et al. (AE 2011)NOx unit emissions from diesel cars increased in real driving Diesel carsGasoline carsMean [NO2] 2001-2010Traffic stationNO2 limit values exceeded almost only at traffic stations –persistent over the yearsEEA 2012 – Air quality in EuropeEcosystems impactsResults020040060080010001200BaselineMTFR‐EUBaselineMTFR‐EUBaselineMTFR‐EU2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 20301000 km2TSAP target for 2020: ‐31%050100150200250BaselineMTFR‐EUBaselineMTFR‐EUBaselineMTFR‐EU2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 20301000 km2TSAP target for 2020: ‐74%Baseline leaves biodiversity unprotected at 950,000 km2(55%) of all ecosystems areaMTFR measures could provide protection to another 200,000 km2 after 2020Soil acidification will remain a threat to 50,000 km2(~4%) of European forests.MTFR measures could protectanother 30,000 km2Eutrophication (unprotected area)Acidification(unprotected forest area)% of unprotected ecosystems area% of unprotected forest areaJ Borken‐Kleefeld/IIASA 12/13/20129Natura2000 areasThreat to biodiversity from excess nitrogen input20102020 CLE2030 MCE• Nitrogen input will continue to threaten biodiversity at about two thirds (350,000 km2) of these nature protection zones in the baseline case.• MTFR measures could provide protection to another 100,000 km2after 2020• An incomplete assessment, as not all countries have reported critical load data for Natura2000 areas % of unprotected ecosystems areaCompliance with NO2 AQ limit valuesMethodologyStreetcanyonstationNearestbackgroundstationComputeddifference,i.e., road sideincrementModelledbackgroundModelledroad sideincrementModelled withEMEP/CHIMERE 7 kmUnexplained share  Direct dispersion of street emissions, calculated from‐ road NO2 emissions,‐ mixing time in street canyonderived by regression from  weekly  observations Chemistry component, derived from ‐ observed background of NO2, O3, ‐ road NOx emissions,‐ NO/NO2 ratios of traffic emissionsObservations from AIRBASE 2009 How these are explained with models for 2009How are they modeled for the futureScaled with future traffic NO2 emissionsFuture changes in ‐ NO2, O3 background ‐ traffic NOx emissions,‐ NO/NO2 ratios of traffic emissionsModelled for scenario with EMEP/CHIMERE 7kmConstant

The impact of future vehicles on pollutant emissions and air quality in Europe

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