McCallum, I.

Schepaschenko, D.

Shvidenko, A.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 13, EGU2011-11686, 2011EGU General Assembly 2011© Author(s) 2011Productivity of Russian forests during recent decades (1960-2010s)Anatoly Shvidenko (1,2), Dmitry Schepaschenko (1,3), and Ian McCallum (1)(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361 Austria, (2) V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest,Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, 660036 Krasnoyarsk Russia, (3) Moscow State Forest University,Mytischi-5, 141005, Moscow reg., RussiaKnowledge of long term indicators of forest productivity is very important for reliable assessment of interactionof forests with major global biogeochemical cycles. We present a systematic analysis of indicators of productivityof Russian forests (live and dead biomass, net primary production, net ecosystem production, net ecosystem ex-change; net and gross growth) for the last 50 years (1960-2010) using the diversity of available information sourcesand methods (forest inventories; different empirical and semi-empirical models; eddy-covariance; remote sensingproducts; dynamic vegetation models). Based on as comprehensive as possible adherence to the principles of ap-plied systems analysis, we made an attempt to provide a time series analysis of indicators of forest productivityin Russia aiming at (1) obtaining the most reliable results, and (2) comprehensively assessing the variability andbiases of the indicators. Practically all methods used resulted in biased estimates, sometimes significant. Takinginto account the fuzzy character of assessment of forest productivity for large areas, any of the existing methods(used individually) are not able to recognize structural uncertainties. In order to get the most probable results andrelated uncertainties, a special statistical procedure for harmonizing along with multiple constraints of the esti-mates obtained by independent methods is suggested. Application of the above methodology resulted in a ratherconsistent assessment of the major indicators of productivity. For instance, we showed that forest live biomass atthe country level could be estimated with uncertainty of 4-6% and net primary production – 7-10% (confidentialinterval 0.9) for individual years. These uncertainties decrease for about one-third in long-period time series. Thisallows us to observe the trend of increasing productivity of Russian forests during the last five decades at levels of0.5±0.2% year−1. However, the above results should be used with caution because the entire procedure inevitablyincludes expert estimates and judgments.

Productivity of Russian forests during recent decades (1960-2010s)

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