Kangas, L.

Karvosenoja, K.

Kukkonen, J.

Kupiainen, K.

Paunu, V.-V.

Savolahti, M.

Tohka, A.

Tuomisto, J.T.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Cost-efficient reduction of population exposure caused by primary PM2.5 emissions in Finland (#66)N. Karvosenoja(1), K. Kupiainen(1), V.-V. Paunu(1), M. Savolahti(1), A. Tohka(1), L  Kangas(2)  J  Kukkonen(2)  . , . ,J. T. Tuomisto(3)(1) Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) (2) Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) (3) National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL)ContentsIntroduction•Fine particulate matter (PM ) in Finland   2.5   Methodology•Finnish Regional Emission Scenario (FRES) model13.9.2010     Results•Primary PM2.5 emissions in Finland 1984-2020•Primary PM2.5 reduction potential and cost-efficiency in 2020 for:•Reduction of emissions•Reduction of population exposure   ConclusionsFine particulate matter (PM2.5) in FinlandFinland:? Land area 340 000 km2, population 5.4 million, low population density? Low annual average concentrations of PM2.513.9.2010Source: ETC/ACC, Leeuw, Horálek 2009Greater Helsinki Area:Population 1.3 millionComponents of PM concentrations in Europe vs FinlandEuropeLocal sourcesµg/m3 Finlandµg/m3Regional backgroundUrban backgroundLocal sources13.9.2010Regional backgroundUrban background10 20 30 40 kmModeling resolutions and components of PM concentrations:?50km: Regional background (Urban background)10 20 30 40 km?10km: Regional/Urban background?1km: Urban background / Local sourcesIn Finland vs Central Europe:Contribution to average winter/autumn concentrations 20% in Helsinki (Saarikoski et al. Water Air Soil Pollut 2008 191:265-277)     ?lower regional/urban background?strong local sources (e.g. domestic wood combustion, traffic spring/winter suspension)Major source for PM10, significant also in PM2.5 in spring/winter time(Vallius et al. Sci Total Environ 2005; Pakkanen et al. Atm Environ 2001) MethodologyFinnish Regional Emission Scenario (FRES) model part of the Finnish Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) frameworkFinnish Meteorol. Inst.(FMI):-Dispersion modelling FIN ( SILAM UDM FMI)EMEP / IIASA:-European emissions-Long-range transport (LRT) e.g. , -  Emission module Dispersion moduleKuopio university, VTT etc.-Emission measurements13.9.201013.9.2010Technical Research Center of Finland (VTT) Activity Emission scenariosEmission factors, emission controltechnologies and costsAir pollutionconcentrationsand depositionsSource-receptormatrices (FIN and LRT)Finnish Nat. Institute for Health and Welfare (THL):-Health risk assessment PM-FIN activity projections (e.g. MARKAL/TIMES)pathwaysEmission reduction requirementsPM and ozone exposure and health effectsEffect module C iti l l dFRES-model, SYKEr ca  oa  exceedances Finnish Regional Emission Scenario (FRES) modelwww.environment.fi/syke/pm-modeling?Anthropogenic emissions 1990, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2050 (several projections)?Comprehensive and congruent calculation for primary PM and gases•primary PM (TSP, PM10 - 2.5 - 1 - 0.1, chemical composition, incl. BC/OC/sulfates)•SO2, NOx, NH3, NMVOCs•GHGs13.9.201055 - 20?Abatement technologies and costs?Aggregation: 154 sectors, 15 fuels (GAINS compatible)20 - 5050 - 200200 - 800800?Large point sources (>200), small point sources (> 200),   area emissions (1 × 1km2)PM2.5 SO2 NOx?Several emission heights?Dispersion with s-r matrices (10 × 10km2 and 1 × 1km2)?LRT from EMEP?Databases of population and critical loadsEmissions – 1 km / 1 hour resolution13.9.2010Road traffic (PM ) Domestic combustion (PM )  2.5   2.5Agriculture (NH3) Other area (PM2.5)Large point sources (SO2)Karvosenoja 2008Dispersion/impacts – Various tools1 L t t i t ith EMEP 50 k l ti. ong-range ranspor  mpac s w    m reso u on2. Finnish high-stack PM emissions with 10 km resolution3. Finnish near-ground PM emissions with 1 km resolution(S ) 3 G i UDM FMI b d SRM 1 1 k20101. EMEP source-receptor matrices RM  50 x 50 km 2. Lagrangian SILAM based SRM 10 x 10 km . auss an -  ase    x  m13.9.2ResultsPrimary PM2.5 emissions in Finland 1984 - 2020PPM2.5 emission 1984-2020 (kilotons/a)PPM i i 2020 (kil t / )2.5 em ss on  o ons aTraffic Domestic combustion Power plants,IndustryOtherPrimary PM2.5 emissions in Finland 1984 - 2020PPM2.5 emission 1984-2020 (kilotons/a)PPM i i d d ti t ti l 2020 (kil t / )2.5 em ss on an  re uc on po en a   o ons aTraffic Domestic combustion Power plants,IndustryOtherPPM2.5 emission, reduction potential and cost-efficiencyE i i d ti t ti l i 2020 ( i kil t (PM )/ ) d Euro 5/6 to all vehiclesm ss on re uc on po en a  n  ax s: o ons 2.5 a  ancost-efficiency per reduced emission (colors: 1000 € / ton(PM2.5))    Street cleaning ? / Dust suppression ?End-of-pipe measures (ESP)Accelerated change for low-emission stovesFabric filters in solid fuel plants >50MWFabric filters in solid fuel plants 10-50MWPPM i i d d ti t ti l 2020 (kil t / )13.9.2010      ESPs in solid fuel plants <10MWESPs in HFO plantsFabric filters in few individual industry plants2.5 em ss on an  re uc on po en a   o ons aTraffic Domestic combustion Power plants,IndustryOtherModeled PM2.5 concentrations in 2020 –Power plants and industryPopulation density?Largest emissions from industrial processes – not located near major cities?High-stack-emissions – efficient mixing – minor impact on i13.9.2010concentrat ons?Highest impacts on annual concentrations below 1 µg/m3f i d t i l l t tng/m3rom n us r a  process p an s, no  in high population density areasModeled PM2.5 concentrations in 2020 –Traffic sourcesPopulation densityMachinery and off-roadRoad traffic?Emissions to great extent in urban areas and along highways –near high population13.9.2010 densities?Low-altitude-emissions – highng/m3  impact on concentrations?Impact on annual concentrations 1 to 6 µg/m3 in many locationsModeled PM2.5 concentrations in 2020 –Domestic wood combustionPopulation densityResidential – supplementary heat.(stoves) below 2 µg/m3Residential – primary heating(small boilers) below 1 µg/m3Recreational wood use(stoves) below 0.5 µg/m313.9.2010ng/m3PPM2.5 emission, pop. exposure and red. potential 2020PPM2 5 emission and reduction potential 2020 (kilotons/a).      ?Strongly different emission –exposure relationships for different Traffic Domestic combustion Power plants,IndustryOtheremission sources categories (high-stack / near-ground, urban / non-urban)?T ffi h d id i l13.9.2010ra c non-ex aust an  res ent a  wood stoves biggest sources of population exposure to primary PM2.5in Finland in 2020Population exposure caused by PPM2.5 and red. pot. 2020 (µg/m3)   ?Reduction potential of population exposure largest for traffic sourcesTraffic Domestic combustion Power plants,IndustryOtherEuro 5/6 to all vehiclesPopulation exposure reduction potential in 2020 (axis: µg/m3) andcost efficiency per reduced pop exposure (colors: M€ / µg/m3)PPM2.5 pop. exposure, reduction pot. and cost-efficiencyEnd-of-pipe measures (ESP)    Street cleaning ? / Dust suppression ?-    .    Accelerated change for low-emission stovesFabric filters in solid fuel plants >50MWFabric filters in solid fuel plants 10-50MW13.9.2010      ESPs in solid fuel plants <10MWESPs in HFO plantsFabric filters in few individual industry plantsPopulation exposure caused by PPM2.5 and red. pot. 2020 (µg/m3)Traffic Domestic combustion Power plants,IndustryOtherConclusionsIn the future (2020) for primary PM2.5?Biggest cost-efficient emission reduction potential in power plants and industry?However only modest reductions of population exposure can be achieved with the emission,             abatement in power plants and industry?Population exposure reduction potential high on accelerated renewal of traffic vehicle fleet?Traffic non exhaust and residential wood stoves the biggest sources to cause population13.9.2010 -            exposure?Modest and uncertain emission reduction potential?Future challenge to develop efficient technologies for PM reduction       2.5Foto: M. RäisänenThank You13.9.2010Foto: M. Räisänen

Cost-efficient reduction of population exposure caused by primary PM2.5 emissions in Finland

Cost-efficient reduction of population exposure caused by primary PM2.5 emissions in Finland

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