Low fertility levels in many countries are creating aging populations whose demands for health care and income maintenance (social security) will increase to unprecedented levels, thereby calling forth policies that will promote increased family care and worklife flexibility. The Population Project at IIASA is examining current patterns of population aging and changing lifestyles, projecting the needs for health and income support that such patterns are likely to generate during the next several decades, and considering alternative family and employment policies that might reduce the social costs of meeting these needs.
The project is seeking to develop a better understanding of how low fertility and mortality combine to create aging populations, with high demands for health and income maintenance, and reduced family support systems that can provide that maintenance. The research will produce analyses of current demographic patterns, primarily in IIASA countries, together with an assessment of their probable future societal consequences and impacts on the aging. It will consider the position of the elderly within changing family structures, review national policies that promote an enlarged role for family care, and examine the costs and benefits of alternative systems for encouraging worklife flexibility by transferring income between different periods of life.
Although not a member of IIASA, Mexico offers a particularly interesting example of a country whose population aging has only started. Mexico has a young population structure and a combination of public and private pension systems. Fertility apparently has begun to decline, and the number of elderly people is expected to rise sharply in the future. In this paper, Roberto Ham, the director of the Population and Urban Development Center at El Colegio de Mexico, examines the evolution of Mexico's aging population and describes current social security policies