A Demoeconomic Model of Interregional Growth Rate Differences

Abstract

Declining rates of national population growth, continuing differential rates of regional economic activity, and shifts in the migration patterns of people and jobs are characteristic empirical aspects of many developed countries. In several instances, they have combined to bring about a relative (and in some cases absolute) population decline of highly urbanized areas, e.g., New York, Tokyo, and Stockholm. In other cases, they have brought about rapid metropolitan growth, e.g., Houston, Miami, and Moscow. This paper argues for a demoeconomic modeling of multiregional systems. It proposes a model that accounts for interregional growth rate differences by means of an endogenous and simultaneous determination of labor force participation, migration, and unemployment