Fiering, M.B.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Remarks on the Water ProjectFiering, M.B.IIASA Working PaperWP-74-0171974 Fiering, M.B. (1974) Remarks on the Water Project. IIASA Working Paper. WP-74-017 Copyright © 1974 by the author(s). http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/154/ Working Papers on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. All rights reserved. Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage. All copies must bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. For other purposes, to republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, permission must be sought by contacting repository@iiasa.ac.at REMARKS ON THE WATER PROJECTM. FieringJune 1974Working Papers are not intended fordistribution outside of IIASA, andare solely for discussion and infor-mation purposes. The views expressedare those of the author, and do notnecessarily reflect those of IIASA.WP-74-17•International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisSchloss laxenburg. AustriaMEMORANDUMIIASAＲ Ｓ ｾ Ｇ LaxenburgAustriaTel. 02236-7485Telex: 12243To: P.rofessors Rozanov, Haefele and Raiffa Date: 25 March 1974From: M. Fiering•M.\#Subject: Remarks on Water Project1. I am encouraged that Dr. Rozanov has agreed to provideactive leadership for the Water Project, and thisappointment ｨ ｡ ｾ my full support and cooperation. Iwelcome his suggestion for periodic meetings and con-ferences, and hope that they will lead to a clearlyidentified product.2. Given what we have learned these past few months, Ithink it appropriate to discuss options concerning thedirections we might take, and therefore I propose thatthe Water Project staff meet immediately to prepare aposition paper which would be amended by Belyaev andKoryavov when they return, and then be transmitted toHaefele and Raiffa, with a request for a full meeting.3. I propose further that we now schedule a small meetingfor the late summer or early fall in order to collectadvice from new participants in the Project, a few out-side experts and any other likely sources of support. Ianticipate we will have less to show for our year of ･ ｾ ｦ ｯ ｲ ｴthan other Projects, and that the fall meeting of theCouncil will be critical of our progress. I thereforethink it. very important to consolidate our efforts, tofocus on sharply defined goals and to invite a few (nota full representation from every NMO) guests to helpformulate new ideas and consolidate old ones. Isuggest early fall or late summer because it would belate enough to incorporate our new arrivals but earlyenough to be helpful to the Director in preparing forthe Council. One additional reason, frankly, is that Iwould hope to attend and would want no interference withmy academic calendar.4. The outside experts might be constituted as a formal Panelto visit the-Water Resources Project; its organizationand function could be similar to that of Visiting Committeeswhich serve many universities and research institutions.In this sense the Visiting Panel would provide a continuing- 2 -constructive review of the project work at IIASA, andlong-term overlapping appointments would guaranteecontinuity of this function. It could pass on thedetails of scientific work where the Council as a wholecannot, and would help the Project by pointing outsignificant trends and needs and in the area, relatedwork, and literature relevant to the enterprise. Itwouln thereby help the Director in defining the need fornew appointees. I submit that such a Panel might ulti-mately be constituted for each Project, and that perhaps4 or 5 persons be asked to serve. It would be useful ifsome members were appointments to more than one Panel.5. Let me add a few thoughts on what the Water Project mightprofitably consider for the remainder of this year. Ourexperience at IIASA suggests that major case studies,retrospective or not, are best undertaken by the govern-ments or agencies centrally interested. For example,Prof. Kaczmarak wants our help in studying advances forthe Vistula, but insists that the main thrust of the workbe carried on in Poland. Given what we have learnedabout the manpower requirements for these major modelstudies, it seems inappropriate that we accept the necessarycomputer hassle ｾ ｮ ､ date collection problems.It would also be unwise, I think, to pursue small problemsor pieces of problems; the cumulative result would not beimpressive. .IIt also seems unreasonable to try to develop a "model ofmodels," or a general water-resource model. Long personalexperience in this area has led me to conclude that thetraditional systems approach, dividing major projects intoa series of coupled sub-systems, does not work for watermodels. Enormous effort has been poured into this concept,virtually all without benefit; the literature is clutteredwith the corpses of these vain attempts. This means it isnot realistic to collect a data bank of economic benefitfunctioris for many potential uses, in the hope that somemodel user might need them a few years hence.I feel we can profitably concentrate in two areas. Oneconcerns the global considerations which we discussed muchearlier in the year: is there really a water shortage?Will there be one soon? If so, is it based on quality orquantity considerations? When and where will it becritical? How can water be used as an instrument of policywith respect to energy generation, human settlement, etc.?The second question concerns the use of existing watersystems for purposes other than those' for which they wereintended. Most large systems incorporate upland reservoirswhich service demands for consumptive withdrawals in up-ｾ ｴ ｲ ･ Ｒ ｭ reaches and which exert modest ｣ ｯ ｮ ｴ ｾ ｯ ｬ on reachestelow. Haefele's work suggests the need ｦ ｣ ｾ ｡ ､ Ｑ ｩ ｴ ｩ ｣ ｾ ｡ ｬ Ｚ ｑ ｷ ｾ ｾ Ｑ Ｐ ｷｾＢ- 3 -augmentation to serve the consumptive needs of wet"cooling towers for energy ｧ ･ ｮ ･ ｲ ｡ ｴ ｩ ｯ ｮ ｾ and we know thatthe lead time for construction of major storage andcontrol work is of the order of decades. This impliesthat pressing energy needs will impose demands longbefore we can build water systems to service them, andit will become necessary to operate existing systems"tomeet these ､ ･ ｭ ｡ ｮ ､ ｳ ｾ along with upstream requirementsin a systematic and disciplined way. Thus innovativeoperating ｰ ｯ ｬ ｩ ｣ ｩ ･ ｳ ｾ trans-basin ､ ｩ ｶ ･ ｲ ｳ ｩ ｯ ｮ ｳ ｾ ･ ｴ ｣ Ｎ ｾbecome essential factors in water-resource configurations.There has been intensive effort here, but littleimaginative use of control ｴ ｨ ･ ｯ ｲ ｹ ｾ coupled with modernanalysis of water quality standards. I think we shouldconcentrate in this area; the connections and opportunitieswith the ｅ ｮ ･ ｲ ｧ ｹ ｾ Ecology and Urban Projects are ｯ ｢ ｶ ｩ ｯ ｵ ｳ ｾand should be encouraged.One important result of all this collaboration is thata rational plan for plant siting might evolve. This isan area which is central to the concerns of almost allｰ ｲ ｯ ｪ ･ ｣ ｴ ｳ ｾ and I am assured by Haefele that the EnergyProject views this as among the most important questionswith which IIASA could deal. I strongly urge that wepursue it.International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisSchloss Laxenburg. AustriaMEMORANDUM- IIASA2361 LaxenburgAustria .Tel. 02236-7485Telex: 12243To:From:Professor RaiffaM. Fiering. (Date: 19 April 1974ｓ ｵ ｾ ･ ｣ ｴ Ｚ Involvement of the Water Project andOther Miscellaneous Items1. As you requested the other day; I submit this briefsummary of the several areas and outside projectswhich now seem to be drifting toward the water projectand which give it some promise of-'becoming, a strongforce in water-resource development. Our oldest in-volvement is that with the Tisza River. I have notspoken with Belyaev and Koryavov since their returnfrom the United States so I do not know the exactstatus of the network flow model which has been pro-posed, but it seems reasonable that their othercommitments made it imoossible for them to make muchprogress. The extent of our cooperation has neverbeen adequately defined because it depends in a largemeasure on how rapidly the simple model is replacedby other more sophisticated, versions. This is afunction of how forcefully the Hungarians press us,and generally speaking I do not envision this as amajor consulting or research effort for us.Second, we are, or soon will be, intimately involvedin the Vistula River program. The extent of ourcollaboration here will be to provide a high-levelmethodological study of some of the statistical and_ hydraulic issues which will then be incorporated inthe detailed simulation program being prepared by thepools.Third, as I described in the ｾ ･ ｰ ｯ ｲ ｴ of my trip to Italy,we have a wonderful opportunity to initiate a formaltraining session in regional and inter-regional decisionmaking on the conditions of conflict. The Italians areprepared to pay for this service, to staff it, and tohelp us generalize its results to international venturessuch as the ｾ ｩ ｳ ｺ ｡ or others. The issues here will beadequately to define the political and institutionalｭ ･ ｣ ｨ ｡ ｾ ｩ Sl:lS- whereby side payment s can be e ffectua ted.,,fｾIi. /,.T,- 2 -This is part of the political part of making trade-offsand depends to some extent on nuances of presentation,modes of output, and other subtleties.Fourth, the Rector of the new University in Cataniahas asked me to enquire about the availability ofassistants from IIASA with respect to establishinga systems program in his new faculty. Whether werespond as individuals or as an Institution, thisrepresents a level of enquiry which had not earlieroccurred to me.Fifth, Professor von der Emde and his colleagues fromthe Technische Hochschule in Vienna approached meto solicity our assistance in connection with the studyof the Leiter River south of Vienna. More sUbstantially"documentation on this proposal has presumeably reachedyou by now, and we will have to make some policy de-cision with respect to an official letter of enquirywhich will be forthcoming from the Technische Hochschule.Sixth, you have probably learned that Wolf Haefele,Harry Swain and I have been discussing a cooperativeventure with respect to studying the siting of powerplants in Germany. This involves management of waterresources for water quality control, and representsanother area of outside contact through the WaterResources Project.All in all, we seem to have quite a rich bag of con-sulting services and projects which should occupythe Project staff for quite some while. It is a goodfeeling. .2. I want to confirm the list of names which we discussedthe other night; Gilbert White, Harvy Brooks, George ,Carrier and Walter Rosendlith. In addition, I want toremind you to contact Dr. Robert White, Administratorof NOAA, US Department of Commerce, Washington DC.Please use my name.

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