System Dynamics Simulation Modelling of the Impact of Technology Capital on Economic Growth of the Republic of Croatia

Abstract

Razvoj znanosti i tehnologije ima veliku ulogu u ekonomskom rastu. U nekim razvijenim zemljama utjecaj tehnološkog rasta dosegnuo je 60 - 70% izmjereno u postotku u usporedbi s drugim čimbenicima. Tehnologija postaje glavna snaga ekonomskoga rasta. Znanost i tehnika, teorija i praksa sve se više povezuju u jedinstveni lanac što potiče daljnji razvitak tehnike i tehnologije, dakle stvara potrebu trajne inventivnoinovacijske aktivnosti. Globalizacija, a posebno globalizacija gospodarstva, izravan je rezultat znanstvenotehnološke revolucije. Njome se stvaraju veze i prostor za dalji razvitak proizvodnih snaga. Glavna je osnovica globalizacije tehnološki razvitak kojim se svijet prostorno i vremenski smanjuje uz kvalitativne i kvantitativne promjene u ekonomskom, političkom i kulturnom području.Sistemskodinamičko simulacijsko modeliranje jedan je od najprimjerenijih i najuspješnijih znanstvenih načina modeliranja dinamike složenih, nelinearnih, prirodnih, gospodarskih i tehničkih sustava. Ono omogućuje praćenje i procjenu utjecaja tehnološkog kapitala na gospodarski rast. Pri izradi sistemskodinamičkog simulacijskog modela utjecaja tehnološkog kapitala na gospodarski rast Republike Hrvatske izrađeni su: strukturni dijagram, mentalnoverbalni model i matematički model za vremensko razdoblje od 1999. do 2009. Budući da istemskodinamički simulacijski model omogućuje dobivanje odgovora na pitanja “što-ako”, postavljena su dva scenarija prema kojima se analizira gospodarski rast pod utjecajem promjene tehnološkog kapitala. Prvi scenarij daje odgovor na pitanje što bi se dogodilo s gospodarskim rastom Hrvatske u promatranom razdoblju da je bio prisutan stalni porast ulaganja u razvoj i istraživanje, u implementiranje tehnologije naprednih zemalja i u investicije.Drugi scenarij daje odgovor na pitanje što bi se dogodilo s gospodarskim rastom Hrvatske da je udio tehnološkog kapitala u ostvarenom gospodarskom rastu umjesto 0,1 (kakav je u Hrvatskoj) 0,39.The development of science and technology plays a major role in economic growth. In some developed countries, the impact of technological advancement has reached 60-70% relative to other factors. Technology has become the main force in economic growth. Science and technology, theory and practice have become increasingly linked forming a single chain, promoting further development of technology, thus creating a need for continuous innovation and invention activities. Globalization, in particular the globalization of the economy, is a direct result of the scientific and technological revolution which creates links and scope for further development of the productive forces. The underlying driving force of globalization is technological development which makes the world a smaller place, both in terms of space and time, bringing qualitative and quantitative changes to the economic, political and cultural fields. System dynamics simulation modelling is one of the most suitable and effective scientific methods for modelling the dynamics of complex, non-linear natural, economic and technical systems. It enables monitoring and assessment of the impact of technology capital on economic growth. In creating a system dynamics simulation model of the impact of technology capital on economic growth of the Republic of Croatia we have created a structure diagram, mental-verbal model and mathematical model for the period between 1999 and 2009. Since system dynamics simulation model provides answers to the “what if” questions, two scenarios were constructed to analyse the economic growth influenced by technology capital change. The first scenario gives an answer to the question what would have happened to the economic growth of Croatia in the relevant period had there been a steady increase in investment in research and development, the implementation of advanced technology and investment in general. The second scenario gives an answer to the question what would have happened to the economic growth of Croatia had the share of the technology capital in the achieved economic growth been 0.39 instead of 0.1 (as recorded in Croatia)

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