Silvana Jakuš

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APRIL - JUNE 1996 19The Challenges of TourismSilvana JokusAccording to the statistics of the World TourismOrganisation, a total of 567 million people took part ininternational tourist traffic in 1995, a 3.8 per cent increaseover the previous year. Revenues from internationaltourism amounted to 372 billion dollars, a 7.2 per centannual rate of increase - testifying to the current risingtrend in customer spending on extras. This positions bringstourism among the stablest economic branches, whosegrowth may slow down occasionally but, judging by allindicators, cannot be seriously threatened.But, even though records are broken every year,the performance of international tourism in recent yearshas failed to meet the forecasts, which predicted fastergrowth. The reason, analysts unanimously declare, is theslow economic recovery of the major tourist-generatingcountries such as Germany, Great Britain, etc. Recessionand an uncertain future are the common causes of thisslower growth, to which each country or region contributesa feature of its own, such as strong (or weak) currency,terrorist attacks, political trouble, and the like. Thus, forinstance, a survey conducted by the German Institute forthe Study of Leisure, B.A.T. showed that out of 5000Germans over the age of 14 covered by the survey as manyas 46 per cent felt threatened or (still only) alarmed bythe drop in their standards and by looming unemployment,and declared that they would try and save in 1966 by givingup their holidays. Nevertheless, economic hardships havenot been reflected on tourist traffic to the extent this couldhave been expected. Evidently, the Germans, membersof the most tourism-minded nation and the archetypes ofmodern nomads, prefer to make financial sacrifices onsomething else, not their holidays.However dynamic the tourist industry may be - incontent, structure and quality of offer - no substantivechanges in its character or volume have occurred for sometime, and certainly not in a degree that would jeopardisethe primacy of the most successful tourist countries. Thus,for example, it would be difficult to imagine that in theforeseeable future anybody could seriously threaten theposition of the record-holder, France, with its 60.5 millionforeign visitors in 1995. This is another in a series ofsuccessful years, which may not have yielded anyspectacular results but which helped France to retain itsleading position. Spain came second, with 45 millionforeign tourists in 1995, followed by USA, with a littleunder 45 million, Italy with 29 million, and China with 23million foreign visitors. Thus, while the ranking order ofthe most popular tourist countries has remainedunchanged during the past few years, analysts will no doubtbe intrigued by China, which has managed within a decadeto cross the long and arduous road from its former twelfthplace to the present fifth-ranking position among themajor tourist countries. Ten years ago, the fifth positionwas occupied by Austria, but in the meantime this countryhas dropped to the tenth place according to physicalindicators, making room for Great Britain, Hungary,Mexico and Poland.What is especially interesting, however, is thediscrepancy between ranking according to numbers ofvisitors and in terms of tourist revenue, which isunquestionably the main motive of all economic activity,including tourism. These discrepancies reveal differencesof concepts, but even more the variety of possibilities toderive maximum profits from tourism in a manneracceptable to tourists. In this respect, Austria, which optedfor higher spending rather than for greater physicalvolume, occupies a considerably higher position. Thus,for instance, last year the Austrian Treasury was richer by12.5 billion US dollars thanks to foreign currency receiptsfrom tourism and Austria took sixth place. First place onthe world list according to tourist revenue is taken by theUSA, with an impressive 58 billion dollars, followed byFrance, Italy, Spain and Great Britain.With their stable trends, rich tourist, entertainment,gastronomic and commercial offers and great businessopportunities, these countries may indeed be somewhataffected by their (possible) domestic problems but, judgingby past experience, not so much as to threaten their leadingpositions in the world travel market. However much mediaattention, outrage or protest they may have provoked,terrorism, French nuclear tests or economic instabilityhave not inflicted any serious damage on tourist traffic.Tourism, a phenomenon of the 20th and definitely also ofthe 21st century, has proved tougher than many expected.Among the Mediterranean tourist countries, notso much by their shares in global traffic as by trends andtheir causes, Portugal, Tunisia, Morocco and Croatia meritspecial attention. While the first two of these countriesdemonstrate a steady, albeit slower, upward trend,Morocco and Croatia, because of their domestic situationhave proved an exception to the general tendency. Thecase of Croatia is particularly instructive as ademonstration of the interdependence of generalconditions and tourism. On the eve of the collapse ofYugoslavia and of the ensuing war, Croatia, which is nowbeginning to make a slow recovery, had beaten its ownrecords with its 8.6 million visitors and 3.5 billion USdollars earnings, and with its 2 per cent share of Europeantourism and 4 per cent share of Mediterranean tourism.Considering the country's size and population, this wasan impressive result. Although for several years a hostageto political events in the country and around it (Bosniaand Herzegovina), Croatian tourism is gradually pickingup, with ambitions to repeat and even surpass its pastperformance thanks to domestic and foreign investments.Although complete official statistics on worldtourism in 1996 are not expected before mid-1997, theavailable information indicates that there will be nochanges in ranking this year. In other words, the leadingfoursome will most probably retain their positions.However, considering the high interdependence oftourism and the general situation in a country - politicalas well as economic - analysts are predicting slightly lesserdifferences between the first-ranking France and Spain20and the USA, who take second and third places. In theirestimate, namely, the predilection for France amongconsumers from the leading tourism-generating countrieshas been diminished this year due to the series of nucleartests France has carried out in the Pacific.According to the EU Institute of Statistics(EUROST AT), the share of the European Union in theworld's receiving tourism is 40.6 per cent, with a 40.7 percent share in the financial results. The results of tourismin the EU foreign trade balance of payments reveal asubstantial surplus, and the economic standing of thatindustry continues to be in good shape - as EUROSTATexperts inform us - regardless of the general recession.After a mild decline in 1993, the number of overnight staysnot only stabilised the following year but even achieved a5 per cent rise, reaching the figure of 1.7 billion overnightsin the EU member-countries, with a 89 per cent utilisationof capacities. The intensity of tourist traffic is alsoillustrated by the information that, between 1992 and 1994,tourist revenues increased by 10 per cent and expendituresby 8 per cent.Even though, judging by the results of stable globaltrends, tourist development is by no means completelyrectilinear and Europe still plays the dominant role, thereis a growing bias towards distant, little-known and exoticcountries offering moderate prices. During the past fiveyears the number of tourist destinations has beenincreased, especially in the Pacific region, with East Asiaalso winning an ever greater share of tourist traffic.According to the statistics of the World TourismOrganisation, in 1995 the Middle East region achieved arecord of 11.8 per cent growth rate in foreign tourist traffic,higher even than Southeast Asia and the Pacific with their8.6 per cent growth rate. Unlike the rest of the countriesin that region, Japan has been recording a steady drop inthe number of foreign visitors ever since 1992. The mainreason for this is presumably the rising value of the yen,placing that country in the group of expensive touristdestinations.The new tourist trends are also illustrated by theinformation that, in absolute numbers, Europe is stillsecond to none, but that in terms of growth rates it isslightly overshadowed by the not-so-well-known andmoderately priced distant destinations - America, EastAsia and the Pacific. To experience something new, to gowhere others have not (yet) been, to see a world stillunfamiliar to the average European, these are challengesthat few can resist. This, however, should not constitute athreat - at least for the time being - to Europe's touristposition: having satisfied their craving for new experiences,tourists go back to good old Europe and its touristattractions.Within Europe, still the leading receivingcontinent, the fastest growth is anticipated in its westernpart (business trips), in the new tourist markets of EastEuropean countries and in the classic Mediterraneandestinations, which are particularly attractive to touristsfrom new Europe.The relentless struggle for every single guest, aconsiderably faster growth of supply over demand, thedesign of novel tourist products - these are the spurs thathave driven tourist countries to do the almost impossible:to improve their offer while at the same time reducingprices, which are slowly passing over the threshold ofCROATIAN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS REVIEWprofitability. Of course, this is not at all an attempt atfinancial suicide but the result of cold calculation: byoffering low prices in transport and basic accommodationbut providing a rich choice of extras they hope to balancethe accounts and to ensure that tourism retains a high placeon the profitability scale.Among European destinations, Hungary, Poland,the Czech Republic and Bulgaria have experiencedparticularly steep rises in the number of foreign visitors.However, starting from 1995, the great interest that wasgenerated after the fall of the Iron Curtain has been slowlywaning.But, this unrelenting struggle, which allows no rest,is driving even the tourist superpowers to incessantinvestment. The Spanish seem to be the most serious inthis approach; it seems that they have had enough of theirimage of a country of mass tourism and of a cheap andinsufficiently distinctive tourist offer. In addition tokeeping the rate of exchange adjusted to tourist interests,they announce extensive and systematic measures toimprove tourist and communication infrastructure andmodernisation of transport, reinforced by strong emphasison higher quality of services. A new impetus is felt also inItaly, as well as in Portugal, which offers an increasinglywide choice of various cultural and religious contents, inaddition to traditional seaside holidays. Turkey, too, isannouncing innovation of its tourist offer, with golf,thermal springs and similar amenities supplementingsummer resorts.The case of Switzerland may be indicative in manyrespects: it is a country of great tourist reputation but withan uncertain future in some respects. The tourist industryis undoubtedly one of the most important sources ofemployment in the country, but it is probably also thegreatest victim of the strong Swiss franc and economicstagnation. Last year the number of overnight stays in 6000Swiss hotels was 32.6 million, or 4 per cent, the lowestlevel since 1979. The summer of 1995 was the worst in 37years for Swiss hotels, and 70 of them had to close theirdoor for good. Unemployment in the hotel and restaurantsector has a rate of 13 per cent, three times the Swissaverage. Due to all this, tourists are reducing theirconsumption, and it may happen that by the end of thiscentury, as a Swiss hotel owner predicts, tourist surplussimply evaporates. Understandably enough, in responseto this tendency, the Swiss intend to reinforce their imageof quality, to raise the standard of their services and tocreate a distinct tourist product.The example of the proverbially exact Swiss isprobably the best illustration of the uncertain fate oftourism: only those who do not relax even for an instantand who constantly monitor consumer needs will succeedin keeping, or even improving, their position in the touristmarketplace. Consequently, even though a period ofconstant growth of tourism is to be expected, with newrecords broken (of course, barring some unforeseeableevents), this does not give the tourist countries any rightto complacency, as each new year signifies a new test inthe face of the modern tourists, who have becomeincreasingly demanding and critical.•

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