Mining economist opinions on using multi-agent methodology to simulate metal markets

Abstract

International audienceIn coming years, mining economists expect the international demand for metals to rise. Market distortions are likely to appear, because producing countries controlling the resources can implement exportation quotas for certain categories of metals. Consequently , consuming countries like France face increasing risks of shortages of some metals. In response, the French government suggests that a set of prospective tools be implemented, including a prospective simulation tool based on a multi-agent system approach. The goal of this paper is to report and discuss critiques by mining economists on the value and abilities of multi-agent systems (MAS) to simulate critical metal markets whenever the approach is appropriate. The critiques are collected by confronting an existing agent-based computational economics (ACE) model of the lithium market with market reality and then by applying the discussions generally to other metals. The motivation is (a) to define the gaps currently existing between MAS and mining (b) to provide indicators on how the ACE model should be enhanced to reduce these gaps and (c) to produce an improved initial metal classification that is suitable for such a modelling exercise