Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2021The Nile River Basin (NRB) is home to more than 200 million people sharing the water resources for agriculture, industry, municipal uses, in-stream navigation, and hydropower generation. A central and existential water management issue for the region is maintaining a sustainable supply of water against increasing population, recurring drought, and climate change. Recent published datasets on future dams reveal an increasingly impounded NRB for hydropower development by upstream and transboundary nations, notably Ethiopia. The most downstream country, Egypt, therefore needs to adapt the operation of High Aswan Dam (HAD), which is key to the country’s water security, to planned dams, such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The overarching goal of this dissertation is to derive an adaptive reservoir operating policy under the combined impacts from climate variability, population pressures and planned dams. First, a modeling framework was developed to simulate streamflow and understand reservoir operations in the NRB using satellite earth observations and macroscale hydrologic modeling. The satellite-based framework yielded a reasonable skill in deriving monthly HAD releases in good agreement with measured discharge downstream of the dam. Building upon this satellite-based modeling, the second study evaluated the hydrological potential of the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin for meeting the declared hydropower production design from the GERD (5150 MW). The results indicated the hydrology of the UBN limited the hydropower potential of GERD and thus the initial plans to upgrade the GERD capacity (from 5250MW to 6000MW to 6450 MW) have not been beneficial to improving the dam’s hydropower production. The third study presented a blueprint for adapting HAD operation under the impacts of filling/operation of the GERD based on a Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI). To adapt to a faster GERD filling scenario (e.g., 3-year filling), HAD needs to modify its operation in summer months by elevating the downstream stress level (store more and release less), e.g., WaSSIAG=0.70. Such adaptation can also help HAD recover its normal operating level in four years after GERD is completely filled compared to 7 years with no adaptation scenario. Additionally, maintaining HAD storage at higher levels prior to GERD filling can significantly reduce the HAD recovery period to only 2 years. In the fourth study, a Forecast-based Adaptive Reservoir Operation (FARO) approach is introduced to explore how HAD can improve its operation by using long-term streamflow forecasts. The FARO results showed that the forecast horizon for HAD operation, using perfect forecasts, ranges between 5- and 12-month lead time in low and high demand scenarios, respectively, beyond which the forecast information no longer improves the release decision. . The forecast value to HAD operation is more pronounced in the months following the flooding season (October through December). The work presented in this dissertation provides a tangible way forward for existing dams to adapt their operations to real-world transboundary challenges while inspiring a win-win deal and considering the equitable rights of development in the Nile countries
