PresenationThis presentation provides an overview of the preliminary results of the National Farm Survey for 201

Dillon, Emma

Moran, Brian

English

T-Stór

Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 1 Teagasc National Farm Survey  2016 Preliminary Estimates  Emma Dillon & Brian Moran  Rural Economy Development Programme, Teagasc, Athenry, Co. Galway.  Outline  Teagasc National Farm Survey • Definitions  Overview of farm income results 2016 • Farm system analysis • Investment & borrowings • Direct payments • Regional results • Viability  Results Summary  Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 3 Teagasc National Farm Survey  Operated by Teagasc since 1972 • EU Statutory Requirement – official farm income statistics.  Sample of 805 farms  • Nationally representative of 83,377 farms. • Pigs, poultry, horses, horticulture and very small farms not included.  Preliminary estimates based on 90% total sample • generally within 1.5% of the final average income figure.  Voluntary farmer participation Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 4 Definitions  Gross output  • Market gross output revenue from market sales by the farm. • Total gross output includes direct payments.  Family Farm Income (FFI) • calculated by deducting all farm costs from total gross output. • family labour is not included as a cost (to adhere with EU level methodological requirements). • FFI is return to family labour, farm management and investment.  Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 5 Drivers of Farm Income 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 6 Cost reduction Poor yields and reduced prices Milk price –X% Cost reduction Average Farm Income 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 7 -5% Family Farm Income 2006-2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 8 051015202530352006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016€'000 per farm  Less volatile average income 2016    €24,060 Volatile average income Farm Income Distribution 2015 v 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 9 051015202530<5,000 5-10,000 10-20,000 20-50,000 >50,000% of farms 2015 2016Fewer farms with incomes over €50,000 in 2016 (drop in dairy income)  Fewer farms in the lower income categories (higher beef farm income) Income Distribution by System in 2016  Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 10 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Dairy Cattle Rearing Cattle Other Sheep Tillage% of farms <10,000 10-50,000 >50,000Highest incomes continue to be clustered on dairy and tillage farms  Number of NFS farms by Farm System in 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 11 Dairy - Key indicators 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 12 -17%   -3% -7%  -1% Dairy expansion – milk deliveries 2016 v 2014 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 13 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%LowerDeliveries<10%increase10-20%increase20-30%increase30-50%increase>50%increase% of farms 2016 v 2014Huge diversity in the extent of farm level production change over last two years. Changes in key parameters on dairy farms 2014 - 2016 Change in Deliveries Herd Size Yield/  cow Other Livestock Land Area Cow Numbers Lower deliveries -2% -6% +3% -3% 48 <10% increase +6% -1% -2% +2% 57 10-20% increase +10% +4% -3% +1% 72 20-30% increase +13% +7% -1% +4% 77 30-50% increase +26% +8% -3% +5% 95 >50% increase +51%  +15% -8% +8% 112 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 14 Change in Dairy Farm Income 2014-2016  Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 15 -43% -34% -23% -12% -9% 10% -50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%LowerDeliveriesUp by <10% Up  by 10-20%Up by 20-30% Up by 30-50% >50%% change in income Cattle Rearing - Key indicators 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 16 -5% +11% +2%   Cattle Other - Key indicators 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 17 +5% +2% +3% -1%  -1  +3%  +2  Sheep - Key indicators 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 18 -1%  -2% +1% -3% Tillage - Key indicators 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 19 -9% +8% +4% -3% Income change by system 2016 v 2015 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 20 -20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Dairy CattleRearingCattle Other Sheep Tillage% change in income Average Family Farm Income  by system 2015 & 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 21 010203040506070Dairy Cattle Rearing Cattle Other Sheep Tillage€'000 per farm 2015 2016Income per farm and per labour unit Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 22 €0 €10,000 €20,000 €30,000 €40,000 €50,000 €60,000 Dairying Cattle Rearing Cattle Other Sheep TillageIncome per Farm Income per Labour UnitLess variability in income per labour input than in income per farm. FARM INVESTMENT  & BORROWINGS Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 23 New Farm Investment in 2016  €687 million invested by farms in 2016  Down 13% from 2015  Type of investment is sector specific  Reduction primarily in relation to buildings  0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%DairyCattle RearingCattle OtherSheepTillageALLBuilding Machinery Land ImprovementTeagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 24 New Investment by System 2015 and 2016 5,00010,00015,00020,00025,000Dairy CattleRearingCattleOtherSheep Tillage All€/farm 20152016Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 25 Farm Debt in 2016  Borrowings up 3%  Average farm debt is €22,293  Two-thirds of farms have no business related debt  Average borrowings on farms with debt €63,764  Debt to income ratio of 0.93 for all farms • For farms with Debt the ratio is 1.81  59% of dairy farms have debt – average €99,058   Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 26 Farm Debt  – by Farm System in 2016 020,00040,00060,00080,000Dairy CattleRearingCattleOtherSheep Tillage All€/farm Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 27 Average Farm Debt levels 2016 DairyCattleRearingCattleOtherSheep Tillage AllAll Farms 58,802 7,318 12,410 12,351 56,191 22,293Farms with debt 99,058 28,360 39,763 54,517 80,590 63,764FFI 56,504 18,330 20,158 26,182 49,703 35,263020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000€/farm Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 28 Debt per Cow in 2016  - Dairy Expansion 020040060080010001200Lower Up by<10%Up by 10-20%Up by 20-30%Up by 30-50%Up by>50%€/cow 2016AverageTeagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 29 Funding of Dairy Expansion Change in Deliveries % of Dairy Farms Cow Nos % Change in Debt Actual Debt Level FFI 2016 Debt to Income Ratio Lower deliveries 18% 48 -7% 27,550 31,544 0.87 Up by <10% 24% 57 6% 32,740 36,320 0.90 Up by 10-20% 20% 72 26% 71,166 52,869 1.35 Up by 20-30% 16% 77 3% 65,298 58,028 1.13 Up by 30-50% 14% 95 14% 95,770 72,286 1.32 Up by >50% 8% 112 28% 122,296 87,709 1.39 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 30 DIRECT PAYMENTS Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 31 Direct Payments by Scheme type  2014 to 2016 04,0008,00012,00016,00020,0002014 2015 2016€/farm BPS DAS Env Scheme Beef Data OtherTeagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 32 Composition of Direct Payments by System 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 33 Cattle Rearing BPSDASEnv SchemeBeef DataOtherDairy BPSDASEnv SchemeBeef DataOtherSheep BPSDASEnv SchemeBeef DataOtherDirect Payments per Hectare 2016 System UAA € per hectare € per farm  Dairying 56.1 346 19,397 Cattle Rearing 36.1 404 14,590 Cattle Other 38.1 438 16,694  Sheep 51.4 345 17,726  Tillage 67.2 392 26,327  All Sizes 46.5 386 17,932 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 34 Market Income 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 35 -10,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000Dairy CattleRearingCattle Other Sheep TillageFFI Direct Payments Market IncomeREGIONAL  RESULTS Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 36 Regional overview – Family Farm Income 2016 010,00020,00030,00040,000Border East M'lands S'west S'east South WestFFI 2016Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 37 Direct Payments as a % of Income by region 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 38 63 59 71 79 67 120 100 Regional overview – Direct Payments 2016 010,00020,00030,00040,000Border East M'lands S'west S'east South WestFFI Direct PaymentsTeagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 39 Regional Income Changes 2016 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%AllBorderEastM'landsS'westS'eastSouthWest% Change in Income Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 40 Farm Demography and Off-farm Employment 2016 Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 41  Average farmer  age 56 • Dairy – 51 / Sheep - 59  Married 70%  Household Size - 2.8 persons  62% demographically viable • Dairy – 51 / Sheep - 59  25% have pensions  010203040506070200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016Farmer Farmer & SpouseOff-Farm Employment 2016 Off-farm Job Holder/Spouse– 49% Holder only – 30% Spouse only – 33% Off-farm Employment by Holder 2016 051015202530354045Border East M'lands S'west S'east South West% HolderTeagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 42 Farm Viability – Some Definitions  Viable  A farm business is viable if the farm income can remunerate family labour at the minimum agricultural wage and provide a 5% return on the capital invested in non-land assets.    Sustainable  If the farm business is not viable the household is still considered sustainable if the farmer or spouse has an off-farm income.    Vulnerable  A farm household is considered to be economically vulnerable if the farm business is not viable and if neither the farmer nor spouse work off the farm.  Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 43 Viability of Irish Farming 2016 37 29 34 % Farms ViableSustainableVulnerableTeagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 44 Viability by Farming System 2016 0%20%40%60%80%100%Dairying CattleRearingCattle Other Sheep TillageViable Sustainable VulnerableTeagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 45 Conclusions Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 46 Dairy -17% Cattle Rearing +2% Cattle Other +3% Sheep -1% Tillage -10% Conclusions  Investment down 13% since 2015.  Borrowings up 3%.  59% of dairy farms have debt  • €99,058 on average. • Higher debt levels across larger expanders.  Family farm income down across all regions • Impact of decline in dairy incomes evident in the South.  Farm viability and off-farm employment remains unchanged.  Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016 – Dublin, May 31st 2017. 47 

Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016

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Teagasc National Farm Survey Preliminary Estimates 2016

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