End of Project ReportThis purpose of this project is to develop a spatial model to project population and
labour market variables at the small area level in Ireland. The model is called SMILE
(Simulation Model for the Irish Local Economy) and is a static and dynamic spatial
microsimulation model. Microsimulation attempts to describe economic and social
events by modelling the behaviour of individual agents such as persons or firms.
Microsimulation models have proved useful in evaluating the impact of policy
changes at the micro level. Spatial microsimulation models contain information on
geographic units and allow for a regional or local approach to policy analysis. SMILE
is based on modelling work on urban systems and employs similar techniques for
analysing rural areas.
The static model creates a spatially referenced synthetic population of Ireland. Each
individual enumerated in the 1991 Census of Population is synthetically constructed
and is assigned 11 census characteristics including a District Electoral Division
(DED) location. The dynamic element incorporated in SMILE ages the synthetic
population by modelling demographic processes including fertility, mortality and
internal migration. The dynamic process is used to project population in the medium
term; it ages the synthetic 1991 population to 1996. For validation purposes, these
1996 projections are then compared to the 1996 Census of Population. The same
process was used to project between the 1996 and the 2002 Census of Population.
The results indicate that the accuracy at DED and county level is within acceptable
limits.
The model will be extended in the next three years, beginning in 2003, with additions
including validating individual attributes such as employment status and social class
and also including households in the model. This project has created a basic model
that can be expanded and developed in the future
