Dhungel, Sulochan

He, Yi

Hill, Ryan A.

Jin, Jiming

Laan, J.J. V.

Tarboton, David G.

English

DigitalCommons@USU

Response of stream ecosystems to climate change (III): characterizing and predicting flow regimesDavid Tarboton, Sulochan Dhungel, Charles P. Hawkins, Jacob J. Vander Laan, Ryan A. Hill and Jiming JinObjectives• Characterize current spatial patterns in ecologically important streamflowproperties across the USA• Assess likely effects of climate change on streamflow regimes• Support stream biodiversity modeling Outline• Selection of ecologically relevant streamflow properties (streamflow regime)• Data (USGS GAGES, Catchment Features, Climate) • Flow regime classification and prediction• Predicted climate-driven changes in flow regimesClimateStreamTemperatureCatchmentFeaturesSpecies DistributionsStreamflow Regime16 variables used to characterize 5 ecologically important aspects of streamflow1. Extended Low Flow Index 2. Coefficient of Variation3. Mean Daily Discharge 4. 7 Day Minimum5. 7 Day Maximum6. Bank Full Flow (Q167)7. Flood Duration (Days > Q167) 8. Colwell’s Index of Predictability(Magnitude, Timing, Rate of Change, Duration, Frequency)9. Colwell’s Index of Constancy10. Colwell’s Index of Contingency11. Flow Reversals Per Year 12. 50% Flow Date 13. Time of Peak14. Number of High Flow Events (>Q95) 15. Number of Low Flow Events (<Q5)16. Number of Zero Flow Events High flow events > Q957 Day Mean Flow7 Day MaximumCoefficient of Variation = Std Dev / MeanLow flow events < Q5 7 Day MinimumMean02004006008001000120014001880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000DataJames A. Falcone, Daren M. Carlisle, David M. Wolock, and Michael R. Meador. 2010. GAGES: A stream gage database for evaluating natural and altered flow conditions in the conterminous United States. Ecology 91:621.Daly, C., M. Halbleib, J. I. Smith, W. P. Gibson, M. K. Doggett, G. H. Taylor, J. Curtis and P. P. Pasteris. 2008. Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology 28: 2031-2064.• Daily streamflow USGS GAGES reference stations (Falcone et. al., 2010)• PRISM precipitation and temperature (Daly et al., 2008)• Downscaled Climate forecasts.  CCSM A2 scenario -> WRF at 50 km scale downscaled statistically to 4 km based on PRISM• 601 sites • 90% complete record• 1965-2010Active USGS GAGES reference stationsNumber1965-2010Reference-quality USGS GAGES StationsCharacterized each catchment with 34 climate, 7 soil, and 10 geomorphology variables%%%%%Precipitation 2001-2010Mean = 829 mm/yrMean = 830 mm/yrPrecipitation Percent Change  from 2000-2010 to 2090-2099Mean = 11.4 oCMean = 14.2 oCTemperature Change from 2000-2010 to 2090-2099Temperature 2001-2010Climate Projections CCSM A2 + WRFAnalysis Stepsx1y1z1Normalize PCAVarimax RotationCl8changeClassificationWard’s Clustersx yx1y1Regime Class Change Due to Climate ChangePCA (Loadings)PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5Extended Low Flow Index (ELFI) 0.83 0.05 0.05 0.15 -0.14Coefficient of Variation of Daily Flows (DAYCV) -0.82 -0.07 0.07 0.04 0.36Contingency (M) 0.67 -0.01 -0.44 -0.23 0.1Low Flow Event (LFE) 0.84 0.13 0.29 0.02 -0.05Zero Flow Event (ZFE) -0.85 -0.17 -0.01 0.05 0.22Average 7 day Minimum Flow (Qmin7) 0.71 0.58 0.01 0.07 -0.25Mean daily discharge (QMEAN) 0.31 0.93 0.03 -0.08 -0.14Bank Full Flow (Q167) 0.01 0.97 0.21 -0.12 0Average 7 day Maximum Flow (Qmax7) 0.08 0.99 0.03 -0.07 -0.01Flow Reversal(R) 0.54 0.12 0.68 0 -0.14Flood Duration (FLDDUR) 0.09 -0.07 -0.84 0.2 0.18High Flow Event (HFE) 0.02 0.1 0.91 -0.22 -0.0750% timing of flow (T50) 0.04 -0.11 -0.36 0.79 0.2Time of Peak (Tp) -0.02 -0.09 -0.08 0.89 -0.01Predictability (P) -0.3 -0.08 -0.36 0.05 0.86Constancy (C) -0.56 -0.11 -0.1 0.2 0.73Proportion of variance explained (cumulative) 0.28 0.21 (0.49) 0.16 (0.65) 0.1 (0.75) 0.11 (0.86)Interpretation Low Flow (L)Magnitude (M)Flashiness (F)Timing(T)Constancy (C)(Magnitude, Timing, Rate of Change, Duration, Frequency)Ward’s Hierarchical Cluster Analysis(Euclidean Distance on Rotated PCAs)A1 A2B1B21 B22C1C21 C22A B CDistanceCharacteristics of 3 Coarse Stream ClassesL = Low Flow     F = Flashiness     M = Magnitude     T = Timing     C = ConstancyB. Intermittent (low low flow factor andhigher flashiness)Class B (n = 149)L F M T C-4-202C. Perennial with higherflashiness and intermediatelow-flow factor (rain fed)Class C (n = 355)L F M T C-4-202A. Perennial with low flashiness and high low-flow factor (snow fed) Class A (n = 103)L F M T C-4-2022000Characteristics of A-Type StreamsL = Low Flow     F = Flashiness     M = Magnitude     T = Timing     C = ConstancyClass A1 (n = 65)L F M T C-4-202A1. Small perennial with low flashiness and high low-flow factor (snow fed) Class A2 (n = 38)L F M T C-4-202A2. Large perennial with low flashiness and high low-flow factor (snow fed) Characteristics of B-Type StreamsL = Low Flow     F = Flashiness     M = Magnitude     T = Timing     C = ConstancyClass B1 (n = 64)L F M T C-4-202B1. Intermittent with low flashiness Class B21 (n = 42)L F M T C-4-202B21. Intermittent with higher flashiness and early timingClass B22 (n = 43)L F M T C-4-202B22. Intermittent with higher flashiness and later timingCharacteristics of C-Type StreamsL = Low Flow     F = Flashiness     M = Magnitude     T = Timing     C = ConstancyClass C1 (n = 69)L F M T C-4-202C1. Perennial with early flowClass C21 (n = 176)L F M T C-4-202C21. Smaller perennial with later, more flashy flowClass C22 (n = 110)L F M T C-4-202C22. Larger perennial with later, less-flashy flowC1C21 C22A1 A2B1B21 B22Geography of Stream Regime ClassesABCRandom Forest Model PerformanceClassification errorPredicted Class ErrorA1 A2 B1 B21 B22 C1 C21 C22OriginalA1 54 2 1 7 1 17%A2 4 28 6 26%B1 3 36 3 8 4 5 3 42%B21 1 24 3 1 11 2 43%B22 1 1 33 2 6 23%C1 6 1 54 3 5 22%C21 5 4 1 2 151 13 14%C22 4 3 5 2 3 5 14 70 34%Variable ImportanceJune PrecipitationAreaMean ElevationPrecipitation RangeTotal SnowSoil PermeabilityOctober PrecipitationMean Decrease in Gini IndexPredicted Climate-Driven Changes in Stream Classes (present to 2090s)Confusion Matrix (2090-2099)Predicted (2090 -2099)Change %A1 A2 B1 B21 B22 C1 C21 C22Model 2001 -2010 A1 56 1 1 1 5%A2 29 0%B1 45 3 2 2 9 26%B21 1 8 5 3 9 1 70%B22 5 1 22 9 3 13 58%C1 1 2 1 2 75 7 5 19%C21 1 10 12 35 104 9 39%C22 3 2 1 10 2 90 17%172/601 = 29% of the sites change classChanged (n=172)Unchanged (n=429)changeA1 Small Perennial Not FlashyA2 Large Perennial Not FlashyB1 Intermittent Not FlashyB21 Intermittent EarlyB22 Intermittent LateC1 Perrenial EarlyC21 Small Perennial FlashyC22 Large Perennial Less FlashyProjected changes to B21 for 2090sConfusion MatrixPredicted (2090_2099) Change %A1 A2 B1 B21 B22 C1 C21 C22Original (Model prediction 2001 -2010) A1 56 1 1 1 5%A2 29 0%B1 45 3 2 2 9 26%B21 1 8 5 3 9 1 70%B22 5 1 22 9 3 13 58%C1 1 2 1 2 75 7 5 19%C21 1 10 12 35 104 9 39%C22 3 2 1 10 2 90 17%Projected Changes to B21 Intermittent EarlyChanging to perennial, rain-fed streams with later flowA1 Small Perennial Not FlashyA2 Large Perennial Not FlashyB1 Intermittent Not FlashyB21 Intermittent EarlyB22 Intermittent LateC1 Perrenial EarlyC21 Small Perennial FlashyC22 Large Perennial Less FlashyProjected changes to B22 for 2090sConfusion MatrixPredicted (2090_2099) Change %A1 A2 B1 B21 B22 C1 C21 C22Original (Model prediction 2001 -2010) A1 56 1 1 1 5%A2 29 0%B1 45 3 2 2 9 26%B21 1 8 5 3 9 1 70%B22 5 1 22 9 3 13 58%C1 1 2 1 2 75 7 5 19%C21 1 10 12 35 104 9 39%C22 3 2 1 10 2 90 17%Projected Changes to B22 Intermittent LateChanging to perennial rain-fed streamsA1 Small Perennial Not FlashyA2 Large Perennial Not FlashyB1 Intermittent Not FlashyB21 Intermittent EarlyB22 Intermittent LateC1 Perrenial EarlyC21 Small Perennial FlashyC22 Large Perennial Less FlashyProjected changes to C21 for 2090sConfusion MatrixPredicted (2090_2099) Change %A1 A2 B1 B21 B22 C1 C21 C22Original (Model prediction 2001 -2010) A1 56 1 1 1 5%A2 29 0%B1 45 3 2 2 9 26%B21 1 8 5 3 9 1 70%B22 5 1 22 9 3 13 58%C1 1 2 1 2 75 7 5 19%C21 1 10 12 35 104 9 39%C22 3 2 1 10 2 90 17%Projected Changes to C21 Small Perennial FlashyChange to earlier and increased intermittencyConcluding Remarks• Did we adequately characterize ecological important aspects of flow? • Prediction to ungauged (or future) streams is a critical challenge. Low-flow is most problematic.• Will streams switch between perennial and intermittent? These types of changes have very different implications for stream biodiversity. Questions?Extra slidesCombined Fraction of Zero Flow Days (ZFD) and BaseflowIndex (BFI) to characterize low flow Extended Low Flow Index (ELFI)Cumulative Probability0 11-1Prob(BFI < x)01Prob(ZFD > -x)ELFI = BFI - ZFDTime of Peak 50% Flow dateTiming variablesThe day of water year by which 50% of total flow has occurredAll the streamflow variables were calculated based on water year (Oct – Sep)Flow (cfs)Flow (cfs)Average day of peak in water yearStreamflow Predictability (P), Constancy (C) and Contingency (M)Colwell (Ecology 1974, 55:1148-1153)Periods jStates ipij = proportionEntropy measure of uncertainty𝐻 = −$𝑝 𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑝• Predictability (P) is entropy measure of uncertainty scaled from 0 (uncertain) to 1 (certain)• Constancy (C) is entropy measure of uncertainty scaled from 0 to 1 without regard for period• Contingency (M=P-C) scales the mutual information of time and state from 0 (unrelated) to 1 (dependent)C=1P=1M=0C=0P=0M=0Log of flow (cfs)C=0P=1M=1Colwell’s Predictability (P), Constancy (C) and Contingency (M)Periods / States 1 2 3 4 Total> 3 * Qmean 50 502 - 3 * Qmean 50 501 - 2 * Qmean 50 50< Qmean 50 50Periods / States 1 2 3 4 Total> 3 * Qmean2 - 3 * Qmean1 - 2 * Qmean 50 50 50 50 200< QmeanP=1, C=0, M=1P=1, C=1, M=0P=C+MClimateMinimum TempMaximum TempDiff in TempAmplitude of TempStandard Deviation of Max TempStandard Deviation of Min TempPotential EvapotranspirationDryness IndexPotential Evapotranspiration AmplitudeSeasonalityTotal Snow (Mean T)Mean TempMean PrecipitationMinimum PrecipitationMaximum PrecipitationPrecipitation RangeAmplitude of PrecipitationTiming of 50% PrecipitationRelative HumidityMonthly scaled Precipitation (12 months)Percent of SnowTotal SnowPercent Snow (Mean T)Climate, Soil and Geomorphological Properties Evaluated for each WatershedSoilAvailable water capacity of soilSoil Bulk DensitySoil organic matter contentSoil PermeabilityAverage Water table heightDepth to bedrockGleeson Permeability...GeomorphologyMinimum ElevationMaximum ElevationElevation RangeStandard Deviation of ElevationHypsometric ConvexityMean SlopeStandard Deviation of SlopeAreaShapeMean ElevationA1 Small Perennial Not FlashyA2 Large Perennial Not FlashyB1 Intermittent Not FlashyB21 Intermittent EarlyB22 Intermittent LateC1 Perrenial EarlyC21 Small Perennial FlashyC22 Large Perennial Less FlashyProjected changes to A1 for 2090sConfusion MatrixPredicted (2090_2099) Change %A1 A2 B1 B21 B22 C1 C21 C22Original (Model prediction 2001 -2010) A1 56 1 1 1 5%A2 29 0%B1 45 3 2 2 9 26%B21 1 8 5 3 9 1 70%B22 5 1 22 9 3 13 58%C1 1 2 1 2 75 7 5 19%C21 1 10 12 35 104 9 39%C22 3 2 1 10 2 90 17%Projected Changes to A1 Perennial Steady SmallA1 Small Perennial Not FlashyA2 Large Perennial Not FlashyB1 Intermittent Not FlashyB21 Intermittent EarlyB22 Intermittent LateC1 Perrenial EarlyC21 Small Perennial FlashyC22 Large Perennial Less FlashyProjected changes to A2 for 2090sConfusion MatrixPredicted (2090_2099) Change %A1 A2 B1 B21 B22 C1 C21 C22Original (Model prediction 2001 -2010) A1 56 1 1 1 5%A2 29 0%B1 45 3 2 2 9 26%B21 1 8 5 3 9 1 70%B22 5 1 22 9 3 13 58%C1 1 2 1 2 75 7 5 19%C21 1 10 12 35 104 9 39%C22 3 2 1 10 2 90 17%Projected Changes to A2 Large Perennial not FlashyA1 Small Perennial Not FlashyA2 Large Perennial Not FlashyB1 Intermittent Not FlashyB21 Intermittent EarlyB22 Intermittent LateC1 Perrenial EarlyC21 Small Perennial FlashyC22 Large Perennial Less FlashyProjected changes to B1 for 2090sConfusion MatrixPredicted (2090_2099) Change %A1 A2 B1 B21 B22 C1 C21 C22Original (Model prediction 2001 -2010) A1 56 1 1 1 5%A2 29 0%B1 45 3 2 2 9 26%B21 1 8 5 3 9 1 70%B22 5 1 22 9 3 13 58%C1 1 2 1 2 75 7 5 19%C21 1 10 12 35 104 9 39%C22 3 2 1 10 2 90 17%Projected Changes to B1 Intermittent Not FlashyMoving to Perrenialrain fedA1 Small Perennial Not FlashyA2 Large Perennial Not FlashyB1 Intermittent Not FlashyB21 Intermittent EarlyB22 Intermittent LateC1 Perrenial EarlyC21 Small Perennial FlashyC22 Large Perennial Less FlashyProjected changes to C1 for 2090sConfusion MatrixPredicted (2090_2099) Change %A1 A2 B1 B21 B22 C1 C21 C22Original (Model prediction 2001 -2010) A1 56 1 1 1 5%A2 29 0%B1 45 3 2 2 9 26%B21 1 8 5 3 9 1 70%B22 5 1 22 9 3 13 58%C1 1 2 1 2 75 7 5 19%C21 1 10 12 35 104 9 39%C22 3 2 1 10 2 90 17%Projected Changes to C1 PerrenialEarlyLittle changeA1 Small Perennial Not FlashyA2 Large Perennial Not FlashyB1 Intermittent Not FlashyB21 Intermittent EarlyB22 Intermittent LateC1 Perrenial EarlyC21 Small Perennial FlashyC22 Large Perennial Less FlashyProjected changes to C22 for 2090sConfusion MatrixPredicted (2090_2099) Change %A1 A2 B1 B21 B22 C1 C21 C22Original (Model prediction 2001 -2010) A1 56 1 1 1 5%A2 29 0%B1 45 3 2 2 9 26%B21 1 8 5 3 9 1 70%B22 5 1 22 9 3 13 58%C1 1 2 1 2 75 7 5 19%C21 1 10 12 35 104 9 39%C22 3 2 1 10 2 90 17%Projected Changes to C22 Large Perennial Less Flashy Some moving earlierCharacteristics of 3 Coarse Stream ClassesL = Low Flow     F = Flashiness     M = Magnitude     T = Timing     C = ConstancyB. Intermittent (low low flow factor andhigher flashiness)Class B (n = 149)L F M T C-4-202C. Perennial with higherflashiness and intermediatelow-flow actor (rain fed)Class C (n = 355)L F M T C-4-202A. Perennial with low flashiness and high low-flow factor (snow fed) Class A (n = 103)L F M T C-4-2022000GAGEID - 6431500 GAGEID - 7180500 GAGEID - 3488000Characteristics of A-Type StreamsL = Low Flow     F = Flashiness     M = Magnitude     T = Timing     C = ConstancyClass A1 (n = 65)L F M T C-4-202A1. Small perennial with Not Flashy (snow fed) Class A2 (n = 38)L F M T C-4-202A2. Large perennial Not Flashy (snow fed) GAGEID - 10249300 GAGEID - 11266500Characteristics of B-Type StreamsL = Low Flow     F = Flashiness     M = Magnitude     T = Timing     C = ConstancyClass B1 (n = 64)L F M T C-4-202B1. Intermittent Not FlashyClass B21 (n = 42)L F M T C-4-202B21. Intermittent earlyClass B22 (n = 43)L F M T C-4-202B22. Intermittent  lateGAGEID - 5057200 GAGEID - 3291780 GAGEID - 2299950Characteristics of C-Type StreamsL = Low Flow     F = Flashiness     M = Magnitude     T = Timing     C = ConstancyClass C1 (n = 69)L F M T C-4-202C1. Perennial EarlyClass C21 (n = 176)L F M T C-4-202C21. Small perennial FlashyClass C22 (n = 110)L F M T C-4-202C22. Large perennial Less FlashyGAGEID - 12083000 GAGEID - 4161580 GAGEID - 7014500

Response of Stream Ecosystems to Climate Change (III): Characterizing and Predicting Ecologically Relevant Flow Regimes

https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3676&amp;context=cee_facpub

Response of Stream Ecosystems to Climate Change (III): Characterizing and Predicting Ecologically Relevant Flow Regimes

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