Global trade and finance data indicates that the pre-2008 pace of economic
globalisation has stalled or even reversed. The European Union has defied
this trend, with trade flows and financial claims continuing to grow after the
recovery from the 2008 global economic and financial crisis. Immigration,
including intra-EU mobility, has also continued to increase.
Our analysis of public opinion in EU countries shows that support for
globalisation, free trade and immigration, is on the rise. EU public opinion on
these issues does not differ greatly from the rest of the world.
Our panel-model estimates for EU countries from 2009 to 2019 find a strong
association between the unemployment rate and the prevailing view on
whether globalisation is an opportunity for economic growth. A regression for
19 non-EU countries shows the unemployment rate is significantly associated
with public support for trade. These findings suggest that cyclical economic
factors partially drive views about globalisation. Our analysis suggests younger
and better-educated people in the EU view globalisation more positively, as
do those in better economic situations, those who feel politically included
and those with a positive view of the EU. Increased support for globalisation
among EU citizens might also have been boosted by policies to improve social
fairness, and by some success in containing asylum-seeker pressure. However,
the EU continues to have pressing social problems, concentrated in some
member countries with weaker economic outlooks. With global and European
economic growth slowing and the risk of a European recession increasing,
unemployment tensions could re-emerge, which might reverse recent
increases in support for globalisation