The Consumer Sentiment Index in April fell to 104.0
from 108.1 in March. On an annual basis, the
Consumer Sentiment Index (Chart 1) rose by 2.0
index points. The deterioration of the index over the
last month has occurred largely due to weaker
sentiment with respect to current economic
conditions. From an annual perspective the Index has
reached an important milestone, with April’s yearly
increase marking the 12th consecutive month of the
index rising

Author, No

The Consumer Sentiment Index (Chart 1) declined to

87.7 points in April, continuing the downward trend

evident since the beginning of 2019. This was mostly

driven by a deterioration in views of current

conditions, though forward looking expectations also

experienced increased pessimism. On an annual

basis, the index has declined from 104 points in April

2018

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                                     CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX, APRIL 2019     The Consumer Sentiment Index (Chart 1) declined to 87.7 points in April, continuing the downward trend evident since the beginning of 2019. This was mostly driven by a deterioration in views of current conditions, though forward looking expectations also experienced increased pessimism. On an annual basis, the index has declined from 104 points in April 2018.   Current Economic Situation  The Index of Current Economic Conditions tracks developments in consumers’ personal financial situations over the past 12 month as well as their views on whether the present represents a good time to make major purchases. The Index (Chart 2) decreased by 6.9 index points between March and April to 113.1 points. Relative to last month, households’ perspectives of their own current financial situations weakened slightly. There was also a material deterioration in households’ views on making major household purchases, represented by an 11.2 point decline and the weakest level since October 2014.   The Index of Consumer Expectations tracks consumers’ outlook with respect to future economic developments over the next year, taking into account expectations of their future personal finances as well as broader economic performance. Between March and April, the Index (Chart 3) decreased by 4.4 points to 70.6. Household’s outlook on the general economy and unemployment only saw modest downward revisions in expectations, below 2 points in both cases. Downward revisions may have relaxed somewhat due to the recent extension of the UK’s withdrawal date from the EU. At 40.9 points for the general economic outlook over the next 12 months, the majority of consumers remain negative about the future prospects of the Irish economy. Meanwhile, financial circumstances are expected to worsen over the next 12 months.                               KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie    Personal Financial Situation  Views of households’ own personal finances, both in terms of current circumstances and forward-looking views, worsened in April. With respect to current financial situations, respondents report only a minor reduction of 1.8 index points between March and April, with overall confidence remaining relatively positive. In the case of expectation developments in personal finances, households reported a 9.8 point reduction in confidence, suggesting a significantly worsened outlook of how individuals’ personal finances may change over the next 12 months. On an annual basis, current conditions has improved slightly, whereas expectations have worsened by almost 20 index points. This suggests that while domestic conditions have not changed very severely, households expect quite a strong change over the coming year. This is unsurprising given the uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit negotiations.                                                          Table 1: Survey Index Results  Measure1 Long-Run average2 Δ month-on-month Apr. Mar. Apr. 2018 2019 2019  Overall Consumer Sentiment Index 98.9 ↓5.4 104.0 93.1 87.7  Index of Current Conditions 114.8 ↓6.9 119.8 120.1 113.1  Index of Consumer Expectations 88.2 ↓4.4 93.4 75.0 70.6               Personal Financial Situation over last 12 months 94.3 ↓1.8 103.0 107.3 105.5  Personal Financial Situation over next 12 months 111.9 ↓9.8 122.2 113.7 103.7  General Economic Outlook 66.6 ↓1.6 69.7 42.5 40.9  Outlook for Unemployment 90.8 ↓1.4 92.3 74.6 73.2  Major Purchases 131.7 ↓11.2 133.7 130.6 119.4  (1) Index values: Quarter 4, 1995 = 100.      (2) Average value between April 2014 and April 2019     KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie    Disclaimer This report has been reviewed prior to publication. The authors are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed.  Notes The Index of Consumer Expectations is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future financial situation, their economic out look for the country as a whole and employment expectations. The Index of Current Economic Conditions is based on how consumers feel about their current financial circumstance compared with 12 months ago, as well as their perception of the current buying environment for large household purchases.   The data are obtained from telephone interviews during the first two weeks of the month with around 800 completed questionnaires. The data are re-weighted in line with gender, age and level of educational attainment to ensure the data were fully representative of the national population of adults. Each index is calculated by computing the relative scores (the percent giving favourable replies minus the percent giving unfavourable replies (the balance), plus 100) for each question used in the different indices. Those who reply “Don’t Know”, “Remain the same” are excluded from the index calculations. Each relative score is rounded to the nearest whole number. The sum of the relative scores is then divided by the base period total for each index. More details on www.esri.ie.                                                         For further information contact   Austin Hughes – Chief Economist, KBC Bank Ireland– (01) 664 6889 or Philip Economides – Research Assistant, ESRI – (01) 863 2045 Conor O’Toole – Senior Research Officer, ESRI – (01) 863 2046  Historic data from April 1996 are available on the ESRI website, www.esri.ie and on the KBC Bank Ireland website, www.kbc.ie. The most recent releases are also available on the website.KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie    

Consumer Sentiment Index, April 2019

The Consumer Sentiment Index in April fell to 104.0

from 108.1 in March. On an annual basis, the

Consumer Sentiment Index (Chart 1) rose by 2.0

index points. The deterioration of the index over the

last month has occurred largely due to weaker

sentiment with respect to current economic

conditions. From an annual perspective the Index has

reached an important milestone, with April’s yearly

increase marking the 12th consecutive month of the

index rising

CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX, APRIL 2018 The Consumer Sentiment Index in April fell to 104.0 from 108.1 in March. On an annual basis, the Consumer Sentiment Index (Chart 1) rose by 2.0 index points. The deterioration of the index over the last month has occurred largely due to weaker sentiment with respect to current economic conditions. From an annual perspective the Index has reached an important milestone, with April’s yearly increase marking the 12th consecutive month of the index rising. Current Economic Situation The Index of Current Economic Conditions tracks developments in consumers’ personal financial situations over the past 12 month as well as their views on whether the present represents a good time to make major purchases. The Index (Chart 2) fell by 6.6 index points to 119.8 for April 2018. Households reported a weakening of sentiment towards their current financial position as well as whether it is a good time to make major purchases. On an annual basis, the Index also pulled back falling by 2.6 index points.  The Index of Consumer Expectations tracks consumers’ outlook with respect to future economic developments over the next year, taking into account respondents’ expectations of their future personal finances as well as of the broader economy’s performance. The Index (Chart 3) weakened somewhat, falling to 93.4 in April (-2.3 index points). Attitudes regarding the future growth prospects of the wider economy remained unchanged. Similarly, expectations of future financial situations fell slightly (-0.6 index points). It was mainly a strong downward revision in the unemployment outlook that let to expectations reducing slightly for April (-8.7 index points). Annually, Consumer Expectations also showed the strongest performance, rising by 5.1 index points compared to April 2016. Personal Financial Situation KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie In April, less households indicated that their personal financial situation improved over the last 12 months (-6.4 index points). Similarly to March 2018, attitudes towards expected financial situations over the next 12 months fared better, falling slightly to 122.2 index points. Annually, expectations of future financial situations maintained strong growth (+6.8 index points). Current financial circumstances, however, fell marginally by 0.1 index points marking the indicator’s first annual fall since February 2017. Table 1: Survey Index Results Measure1 Long-Run average2 Δ month-on-month Apr. Mar. Apr. 2017 2018 2018 Overall Consumer Sentiment Index 94.2 ↓4.0 102.0 108.1 104.0 Index of Current Conditions 108.4 ↓6.6 122.4 126.4 119.8 Index of Consumer Expectations 84.6 ↓2.3 88.3 95.7 93.4 Personal Financial Situation over last 12 months 84.0 ↓6.4 103.1 109.4 103.0 Personal Financial Situation over next 12 months 103.4 ↓0.6 115.4 122.7 122.2 General Economic Outlook 66.6 - 0.0 65.3 69.7 69.7 Outlook for Unemployment 88.1 ↓8.7 88.5 101.0 92.3 Major Purchases 128.4 ↓6.8 138.4 140.5 133.7 (1) Index values: Quarter 4, 1995 = 100.(2) Average value between April 2013 and April 2018KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie       Disclaimer This report has been reviewed prior to publication. The authors are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed.  Notes The Index of Consumer Expectations is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future financial situation, their economic outlook for the country as a whole and employment expectations. The Index of Current Economic Conditions is based on how consumers feel about their current financial circumstance compared with 12 months ago, as well as their perception of the current buying environment for large household purchases.   The data are obtained from telephone interviews during the first two weeks of the month with around 800 completed questionnaires. The data are re-weighted in line with gender, age and level of educational attainment to ensure the data were fully representative of the national population of adults. Each index is calculated by computing the relative scores (the percent giving favourable replies minus the percent giving unfavourable replies (the balance), plus 100) for each question used in the different indices. Those who reply “Don’t Know”, “Remain the same” are excluded from the index calculations. Each relative score is rounded to the nearest whole number. The sum of the relative scores is then divided by the base period total for each index. More details on www.esri.ie.                                                         For further information contact   Austin Hughes – Chief Economist, KBC Bank Ireland– (01) 664 6889 or Philip Economides – Research Assistant, ESRI – (01) 863 2045 Conor O’Toole – Senior Research Officer, ESRI – (01) 863 2046  Historic data from April 1996 are available on the ESRI website, www.esri.ie and on the KBC Bank Ireland website, www.kbc.ie. A detailed methodology note outlining how the indices are constructed and the most recent release are also available on the website.

Consumer Sentiment Index, April 2018

http://aei.pitt.edu/101759/1/CSI2018APR.pdf

Consumer Sentiment Index, April 2018

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