Consumer Sentiment declined in October 2017 to
104.8, down from 105.8 index points in September
(Chart 1). While the month-on-month figure has
declined, the index value still exceeds the 2017
average of 103.2 as well as the 97.3 index points
seen this time last year. The decline for October
2017 is driven by a fall in the Index of Current
Conditions. The Index of Consumer addressing
future economic developments has slowed its
ascent but continues to rise

Author, No

The Consumer Sentiment Index (Chart 1) fell for a

third consecutive month from 96.4 points in

September to 93.5 points in October. Relative to the

same period last year, this represents a fall of 11.3

index points. Similar double-digit declines have

occurred within the two subcomponents of the

index; Current Economic Conditions and Consumer

Expectations. Significant downward revisions in

macroeconomic outlooks and attitudes towards

major household purchases appear to have driven

the overall decline in sentiment

Archive of European Integration

                                     CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX, OCTOBER 2018     The Consumer Sentiment Index (Chart 1) fell for a third consecutive month from 96.4 points in September to 93.5 points in October. Relative to the same period last year, this represents a fall of 11.3 index points. Similar double-digit declines have occurred within the two subcomponents of the index; Current Economic Conditions and Consumer Expectations. Significant downward revisions in macroeconomic outlooks and attitudes towards major household purchases appear to have driven the overall decline in sentiment.    Current Economic Situation  The Index of Current Economic Conditions tracks developments in consumers’ personal financial situations over the past 12 month as well as their views on whether the present represents a good time to make major purchases. The Index (Chart 2) decreased by 5.1 index points between September and October, reaching 110.3. On an annual basis, confidence in current conditions fell 10.2 index points. While the decline in current financial conditions fell moderately (-1.5 index points), highly positive sentiment towards major household purchases experienced a major decrease (-8.1 points).   The Index of Consumer Expectations tracks consumers’ outlook with respect to future economic developments over the next year, taking into account expectations of their future personal finances as well as broader economic performance. Compared to September, the Index (Chart 3) declined by 1.6 index points to 82.1. Concerns about the general economy appear to be accelerating in growth as Ireland approaches the Brexit-deadline of March 2019. The general economic continues to hang close to the 50 point index region, a level which would suggest the majority of individuals expect weaker economic performance in the next year.                                  KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie    Personal Financial Situation  While many of the sentiment indicators have ticked down in October, households are more bullish on how their own personal circumstances will change over the next 12 months. However, confidence in their current financial situation appears to have deteriorated, relative to September. This latter response may be linked to the government’s most recent announcements for Budget 2018, which delivered minor reductions in income tax liability and increased social contributions to the general public. While individuals generally remain positive about potential changes in their financial situations, a year-on-year perspective reveals sudden and major losses of confidence both in September and October, likely tied to recent elevations in Brexit-concerns.                                                           Table 1: Survey Index Results  Measure1 Long-Run average2 Δ month-on-month Oct. Sept. Oct. 2017 2018 2018  Overall Consumer Sentiment Index 97.6 ↓3.0 104.8 96.4 93.5  Index of Current Conditions 112.2 ↓5.1 120.5 115.4 110.3  Index of Consumer Expectations 87.8 ↓1.6 94.3 83.7 82.1               Personal Financial Situation over last 12 months 89.6 ↓1.5 103.4 97.5 96.0  Personal Financial Situation over next 12 months 108.5 ↑1.0 121.5 108.0 109.0  General Economic Outlook 68.4 ↓2.4 68.5 58.8 56.5  Outlook for Unemployment 90.9 ↓3.9 98.9 90.9 87.1  Major Purchases 130.8 ↓8.1 134.7 130.1 122.1  (1) Index values: Quarter 4, 1995 = 100.      (2) Average value between October 2013 and October 2018     KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie   Disclaimer This report has been reviewed prior to publication. The authors are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed.  Notes The Index of Consumer Expectations is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future financial situation, their economic outlook for the country as a whole and employment expectations. The Index of Current Economic Conditions is based on how consumers feel about their current financial circumstance compared with 12 months ago, as well as their perception of the current buying environment for large household purchases.   The data are obtained from telephone interviews during the first two weeks of the month with around 800 completed questionnaires. The data are re-weighted in line with gender, age and level of educational attainment to ensure the data were fully representative of the national population of adults. Each index is calculated by computing the relative scores (the percent giving favourable replies minus the percent giving unfavourable replies (the balance), plus 100) for each question used in the different indices. Those who reply “Don’t Know”, “Remain the same” are excluded from the index calculations. Each relative score is rounded to the nearest whole number. The sum of the relative scores is then divided by the base period total for each index. More details on www.esri.ie.                                                         For further information contact   Austin Hughes – Chief Economist, KBC Bank Ireland– (01) 664 6889 or Philip Economides – Research Assistant, ESRI – (01) 863 2045 Conor O’Toole – Senior Research Officer, ESRI – (01) 863 2046  Historic data from April 1996 are available on the ESRI website, www.esri.ie and on the KBC Bank Ireland website, www.kbc.ie. The most recent releases are also available on the website.KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie    

Consumer Sentiment Index, October 2018

Consumer Sentiment declined in October 2017 to

104.8, down from 105.8 index points in September

(Chart 1). While the month-on-month figure has

declined, the index value still exceeds the 2017

average of 103.2 as well as the 97.3 index points

seen this time last year. The decline for October

2017 is driven by a fall in the Index of Current

Conditions. The Index of Consumer addressing

future economic developments has slowed its

ascent but continues to rise

            CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX, OCTOBER 2017        Consumer Sentiment declined in October 2017 to 104.8, down from 105.8 index points in September (Chart 1). While the month-on-month figure has declined, the index value still exceeds the 2017 average of 103.2 as well as the 97.3 index points seen this time last year. The decline for October 2017 is driven by a fall in the Index of Current Conditions. The Index of Consumer addressing future economic developments has slowed its ascent but continues to rise.    Current Economic Situation  The Index of Current Economic Conditions tracks developments in consumer’s personal financial situation over the past 12 month as well as their views on the current climate for making major purchases. The Index (Chart 2) decreased by 2.8 monthly index points to 120.5 in October 2017. The decline was driven by diminishing views over the household’s own financial situation (-4.1 index points) along with a decrease in optimism regarding the purchase of household equipment (-1.8 index points).    The Index of Consumer Expectations (Chart 3) reflects consumers’ outlook on future economic developments over the next year. The index has continued its slow rise for October 2017 from 94.0 to 94.3 index points. This is driven mainly by improvements in the labour market although the slight falls in expectations towards households’ financial outlooks has pulled back expectations. As the labour market has improved considerably in recent months, this is undoubtedly feeding through to households’ assessment of employment opportunities. With expectations strongly positive for the labour market, yet views on personal finances expected to remain subdued, the results suggests that households may not be experiencing a trickle-down effect of the improving economy.                            KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie    Personal Financial Situation  In October 2017 consumer’s views over their personal finances, both past and future, have weakened. Overall households feel their finances have worsened when compared to 12 months ago, with the index decreasing by 4.1 points. Expectations regarding households’ future financial situation have also weakened but at a slower pace, decreasing by 1.2 index points in October. It must be noted, however, that the index level is far more positive than October 2016. Compared to our 2017 averages of 103.0 and 120.8 for the past and future respectively, we continue to see improvements in personal financial outlooks.                                                            Table 1: Survey Index Results  Measure1 Long-Run average2 Δ month-on-month October Sept. October 2016 2017 2017  Overall Consumer Sentiment Index 89.6 ↓1.0 97.3 105.8 104.8  Index of Current Conditions 103.6 ↓2.8 112.9 123.4 120.5  Index of Consumer Expectations 80.2 ↑0.3 86.9 94.0 94.3               Personal Financial Situation over last 12 months 76.6 ↓4.1 90.2 107.5 103.4  Personal Financial Situation over next 12 months 97.0 ↓1.2 115.9 122.7 121.5  General Economic Outlook 63.7 ↓0.1 62 68.6 68.5  Outlook for Unemployment 83.9 ↑3.2 87.5 95.8 98.9  Major Purchases 125.1 ↓1.8 131.6 136.4 134.7  (1) Index values: Quarter 4, 1995 = 100.      (2) Average value between October 2012 and October 2017                 CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX, OCTOBER 2017   Disclaimer This report has been reviewed prior to publication. The authors are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed.  Notes The Index of Consumer Expectations is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future financial situation, their economic out look for the country as a whole and employment expectations. The Index of Current Economic Conditions is based on how consumers feel about their current financial circumstance compared with 12 months ago, as well as their perception of the current buying environment for large household purchases.   The data are obtained from telephone interviews during the first two weeks of the month with around 800 completed questionnaires. The data are re-weighted in line with gender, age and level of educational attainment to ensure the data were fully representative of the national population of adults. Each index is calculated by computing the relative scores (the percent giving favourable replies minus the percent giving unfavourable replies (the balance), plus 100) for each question used in the different indices. Those who reply “Don’t Know”, “Remain the same” are excluded from the index calculations. Each relative score is rounded to the nearest whole number. The sum of the relative scores is then divided by the base period total for each index. More details on www.esri.ie.                                                         For further information contact   Austin Hughes – Chief Economist, KBC Bank Ireland– (01) 664 6889 or Conor O’Toole – Senior Research Officer, ESRI – (01) 863 2046  Historic data from April 1996 are available on the ESRI website, www.esri.ie and on the KBC Bank Ireland website, www.kbc.ie. A detailed methodology note outlining how the indices are constructed and the most recent release are also available on the websites.KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie      

Consumer Sentiment Index, October 2017

http://aei.pitt.edu/101769/1/CSI2018OCT.pdf

Consumer Sentiment Index, October 2017

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