The Consumer Sentiment Index (Chart 1) increased
from to 96.5 points in November, relative to the
previous month. Moderate increases in both
subcomponents of the index mark a moderation in
concerns among consumers. Uncertainty regarding
Ireland’s economy and labour market conditions
continue to weigh negatively on overall confidence.
This mild improvement in sentiment is likely
attributed towards the approaching festive season
and November’s reassuring progress in ongoing
Brexit negotiations

Author, No

The Consumer Sentiment Index (Chart 1) increased

from to 96.5 points in November, relative to the

previous month. Moderate increases in both

subcomponents of the index mark a moderation in

concerns among consumers. Uncertainty regarding

Ireland’s economy and labour market conditions

continue to weigh negatively on overall confidence.

This mild improvement in sentiment is likely

attributed towards the approaching festive season

and November’s reassuring progress in ongoing

Brexit negotiations

Archive of European Integration

                                     CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX, NOVEMBER 2018     The Consumer Sentiment Index (Chart 1) increased from to 96.5 points in November, relative to the previous month. Moderate increases in both subcomponents of the index mark a moderation in concerns among consumers. Uncertainty regarding Ireland’s economy and labour market conditions continue to weigh negatively on overall confidence. This mild improvement in sentiment is likely attributed towards the approaching festive season and November’s reassuring progress in ongoing Brexit negotiations.    Current Economic Situation  The Index of Current Economic Conditions tracks developments in consumers’ personal financial situations over the past 12 month as well as their views on whether the present represents a good time to make major purchases. The Index (Chart 2) increased by 4.3 index points between October and September to 114.6. While personal financial circumstances remained relatively stable, appetites for the purchase of major household items increased by 7.7 index points. On an annual basis, the Index of Current Economic Conditions remains subdued, 7.1 index points below November 2017.  The Index of Consumer Expectations tracks consumers’ outlook with respect to future economic developments over the next year, taking into account expectations of their future personal finances as well as broader economic performance. Compared to October, the Index (Chart 3) rose by 2.1 index points to 84.3. Concerns about the general economy remain a burden for the index while expectations of improved financial situations strengthened by 8.6 index points. The general economic inches slightly closer to the 50 point index region (-1.9 points), a level which would suggest the majority of individuals expect weaker economic performance in the next year.                                  KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie     Personal Financial Situation  Households remain confident about expected changes in their respective financial situations over the next 12 months, as reflected by an 8.6 index point rise between October and November. Assessments over ongoing personal financial situations over the past 12 months indicate a slight improvement among consumers. Examining year-on-year changes, a downward trend emerges across both measures, persisting since November last year.                                                           Table 1: Survey Index Results  Measure1 Long-Run average2 Δ month-on-month Nov. Oct. Nov. 2017 2018 2018  Overall Consumer Sentiment Index 97.9 ↑3.0 103.6 93.5 96.5  Index of Current Conditions 112.5 ↑4.3 121.7 110.3 114.6  Index of Consumer Expectations 88.1 ↑2.1 91.5 82.1 84.3               Personal Financial Situation over last 12 months 90.2 ↑0.2 104.6 96.0 96.2  Personal Financial Situation over next 12 months 109.3 ↑8.6 120.7 109.0 117.6  General Economic Outlook 68.4 ↓1.9 64.8 56.5 54.5  Outlook for Unemployment 91.2 ↓0.2 94.8 87.1 86.8  Major Purchases 130.9 ↑7.7 135.7 122.1 129.7  (1) Index values: Quarter 4, 1995 = 100.      (2) Average value between November 2013 and November 2018     KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie   Disclaimer This report has been reviewed prior to publication. The authors are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed.  Notes The Index of Consumer Expectations is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future financial situation, their economic out look for the country as a whole and employment expectations. The Index of Current Economic Conditions is based on how consumers feel about their current financial circumstance compared with 12 months ago, as well as their perception of the current buying environment for large household purchases.   The data are obtained from telephone interviews during the first two weeks of the month with around 800 completed questionnaires. The data are re-weighted in line with gender, age and level of educational attainment to ensure the data were fully representative of the national population of adults. Each index is calculated by computing the relative scores (the percent giving favourable replies minus the percent giving unfavourable replies (the balance), plus 100) for each question used in the different indices. Those who reply “Don’t Know”, “Remain the same” are excluded from the index calculations. Each relative score is rounded to the nearest whole number. The sum of the relative scores is then divided by the base period total for each index. More details on www.esri.ie.                                                         For further information contact   Austin Hughes – Chief Economist, KBC Bank Ireland– (01) 664 6889 or Philip Economides – Research Assistant, ESRI – (01) 863 2045 Conor O’Toole – Senior Research Officer, ESRI – (01) 863 2046  Historic data from April 1996 are available on the ESRI website, www.esri.ie and on the KBC Bank Ireland website, www.kbc.ie. The most recent releases are also available on the website.KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie    

Consumer Sentiment Index, November 2018

Consumer Sentiment declined in November 2017

from 104.8 to 103.6 index points (Chart 1). While

the monthly change shows a decline, an annual

comparison shows this level rising by 5.9 index

points. The monthly decline for November 2017 is

driven by a fall in the Index of Consumer

Expectations. The Index of Current Economic

Conditions has risen slightly, bolstered by improved

attitudes towards major purchases

            CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX, NOVEMBER 2017        Consumer Sentiment declined in November 2017 from 104.8 to 103.6 index points (Chart 1). While the monthly change shows a decline, an annual comparison shows this level rising by 5.9 index points. The monthly decline for November 2017 is driven by a fall in the Index of Consumer Expectations. The Index of Current Economic Conditions has risen slightly, bolstered by improved attitudes towards major purchases.    Current Economic Situation  The Index of Current Economic Conditions tracks developments in consumer’s personal financial situation over the past 12 month as well as their views on the current climate for making major purchases. Following the recent 2018 Budget release, the Index (Chart 2) increased by 1.2 index points to 121.7 in November 2017. The rise was driven by a more positive perception of current financial circumstances relative to 12 months ago (+1.2 index points) along with greater confidence regarding the purchase of household equipment (+1.1 index points). Perceived gains in real disposable income are likely to have motivated this improved level of sentiment.  The Index of Consumer Expectations (Chart 3) reflects consumers’ outlook on future economic developments over the next year. The index has experienced a decline (-2.8 index points) to 91.5 for November 2017. This has been its sharpest decline since the Brexit announcement, when the index fell in July 2016 by 11.5 index points. This is driven mainly by reductions in positive expectations regarding future economic and labour market performance, falling by 3.7 and 4.2 index points respectively. A more modest weakening in expectations regarding future financial situations  (-0.7 index points) lessened the overall fall. It may be that the staf of Brexit negotiations and the UK’s recent economic performance appear to have shaken consumer expectations of growth.                          KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie     Personal Financial Situation  In November 2017 consumers’ views regarding their personal finances have remained relatively static compared to earlier in the year, with financial situations compared to 12 months ago showing a healthy improvement of 1.2 index points yet future expectations falling by 0.7 index points. The recent Government budget appears to have had a relatively minor impact on consumer expectations of their personal financial situation.   Overall, when compared with the respective figures for the year to date, we continue to see minor improvements in personal financial outlooks.                                                         Table 1: Survey Index Results  Measure1 Long-Run average2 Δ month-on-month Nov. Oct. Nov. 2016 2017 2017  Overall Consumer Sentiment Index 90.3 ↓1.2 97.8 104.8 103.6  Index of Current Conditions 104.3 ↑1.1 115.6 120.5 121.7  Index of Consumer Expectations 80.9 ↓2.8 85.8 94.3 91.5               Personal Financial Situation over last 12 months 78.6 ↑1.2 98.9 103.4 104.6  Personal Financial Situation over next 12 months 98.0 ↓0.7 115.2 121.5 120.7  General Economic Outlook 64.2 ↓3.7 62.3 68.5 64.8  Outlook for Unemployment 84.7 ↓4.2 83.3 98.9 94.8  Major Purchases 125.5 ↑1.1 129.3 134.7 135.7  (1) Index values: Quarter 4, 1995 = 100.      (2) Average value between November 2012 and November 2017     KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie       Disclaimer This report has been reviewed prior to publication. The authors are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed.  Notes The Index of Consumer Expectations is based on consumers’ perceptions of their future financial situation, their economic out look for the country as a whole and employment expectations. The Index of Current Economic Conditions is based on how consumers feel about their current financial circumstance compared with 12 months ago, as well as their perception of the current buying environment for large household purchases.   The data are obtained from telephone interviews during the first two weeks of the month with around 800 completed questionnaires. The data are re-weighted in line with gender, age and level of educational attainment to ensure the data were fully representative of the national population of adults. Each index is calculated by computing the relative scores (the percent giving favourable replies minus the percent giving unfavourable replies (the balance), plus 100) for each question used in the different indices. Those who reply “Don’t Know”, “Remain the same” are excluded from the index calculations. Each relative score is rounded to the nearest whole number. The sum of the relative scores is then divided by the base period total for each index. More details on www.esri.ie.                                                         For further information contact   Austin Hughes – Chief Economist, KBC Bank Ireland– (01) 664 6889 or Conor O’Toole – Senior Research Officer, ESRI – (01) 863 2046  Historic data from April 1996 are available on the ESRI website, www.esri.ie and on the KBC Bank Ireland website, www.kbc.ie. A detailed methodology note outlining how the indices are constructed and the most recent release are also available on the websites.KBC Bank Ireland, Sandwith Street, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-664 6889, Fax: 01-664 6898, Web: www.kbc.ie  ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Tel: 01-863 2000, Web: www.esri.ie      

Consumer Sentiment Index, November 2017

http://aei.pitt.edu/101755/1/CSI2017NOV.pdf

Consumer Sentiment Index, November 2018

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