Ukraine’s parliamentary elections on 26 October 2014 seem set to be the most important and most challenging the country has ever held. For the first time in Ukraine’s history, the presidential election of Petro Poroshenko in May gave many Ukrainians new hope. His victory seemed to unite the country, being the first president to have won in most of the regions despite the ongoing conflict in the East. However, with many corrupt elites still in power, reforms have become hostage to vested interests and in-fighting which has raised fears of ‘business as usual’. This has made this election campaign set against a backdrop of serious challenges dominating the agenda for the foreseeable future. In this policy brief, Amanda Paul and Svitlana Kobzar explore the status of the reform agenda needed for a stable and democratic Ukraine as well as the challenges in the run up to the election including corruption, energy and EU relations

Kobzar, Svitlana

Paul, Amanda

Archive of European Integration

BACKGROUND
Ukraine's parliamentary elections on 26 October 2014 seem set to be the most important and most challenging the
country has ever held. In addition to the conflict in the East and the ongoing political crisis, there are deep-rooted
economic and societal hurdles, as well as the continuing external threat emanating from Russia. Casting the 
ballot – under the likely fire of Russian-backed separatists and government forces in the East – is no easy exercise.
The agreed cease-fire is insufficient to ensure that Ukrainians living in the war-plagued East as well as active soldiers
will manage to express their vote. 
Yet the elections are crucial because the current composition of the 450 seat Parliament Verkhovna Rada, does not
reflect the post-Maidan reality, and is unable to meet the challenges facing the country. A recent poll showed it had
only a 15% approval rating. Furthermore, it is important for restoring democratic legitimacy. The removal from power
of former president Viktor Yanukovych led to an interim government predominantly composed of some of the most
forceful political forces from among the Maiden protesters. This drew significant rebuke from the East and Russia.
For the first time in Ukraine's history, the presidential election of Petro Poroshenko in May gave many Ukrainians new
hope. His victory seemed to unite the country, being the first president to have won in most of the regions despite the
ongoing conflict in the East. However, with many corrupt elites still in power, reforms have become hostage to vested
interests and in-fighting which has raised fears of 'business as usual'. This situation is fostering mistrust among people
who supported Maidan, while further reinforcing the mistrust of those who did not. 
STATE OF PLAY
Some 6.000 candidates are registered for the elections. Around two thirds of the current deputies are seeking 
re-elections, including 127 deputies who voted for the January 2014 "dictatorial laws". There are also many new
faces. A number of Maidan activists including the prominent journalists Mustafa Nayem and Serhii Leshchenko are
amongst those running. However, they are split among different parties so some may not enter parliament (and at
the same time lose some of their credibility as pure activists); whereas others may get in but could become
paralysed by inter-party rivalries. 
This will be the first post-independence election dominated by one party, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc (PPB), as
previous elections pitted two relatively evenly balanced parties representing different regional interests against each
other. The PPB along with the Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko, Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna, former Ukrainian
Defense Minister Anatoly Hrytsenko's Civil Position, and Prime Minister Arseny Yatseyuk's People's Front are all
expected to reach the 5% threshold required to enter the Rada. The right wing Svaboda along with the newly created
Opposition Bloc, which has risen from the ashes of the Party of Regions (PoR) have also a chance to make it.
Numerous PoR faces are trying to cling to power either by joining established parties, including the PPB, or through
new parties. Other parties include the Party of Development of Ukraine, which is led by former PoR deputy, Yuriy
Miroshnychenko, the Strong Ukraine Party of oligarch Serhiy Tihipko, and the Industrial Party. The latter was formed by
a group of managers and directors from Ukraine's major heavy industries in the southeast linked to Rinat Akhmetov,
the country's wealthiest person and include former close allies of Yanukovych such as Borys Kolesnikov and Vadym
Novinsky. Several other well-known oligarchs including former head of Yanukovych's Administration, Serhiy
Liovochkin and Yuri Boyko, former Energy Minister are also part of the Opposition Bloc.
The parliamentary elections in Ukraine: new hope?
The King Baudouin Foundation is the strategic partner of the European Policy Centre
Amanda Paul and Svitlana Kobzar
POLICY BRIEF
21 October 2014
A far from perfect system
As in 2012, Ukraine will continue to use a mixed electoral system. At the polls voters have two ballots: one to select
their local representative and another to select a political party. Unfortunately, this system can be abused in single
constituencies which would not be possible in a proportional system with preferential lists. It allows voters (if the
candidate receives adequate votes) to improve a candidate's position on the list and thereby increases the likelihood of
that candidate being in the 'passing party' of the list. While there had been some hopes that electoral reform could
take place before the ballot, draft amendments for a new electoral law proposed at the end of July were blocked. A
number of deputies, in particular from the PoR, who would almost certainly lose their seats with a proportional
system, were strongly opposed. Ukraine desperately needs far-reaching reforms but having numerous old faces who
have contributed to and benefited from, corrupt governance could make it more difficult.
Furthermore, many 'old tricks' are being used to 'buy' votes including giving people food packages. Therefore,
between the crisis on the ground and the cunning of many candidates, despite the presence of thousands of
international election monitors, there is still a risk of electoral fraud.
The East and other challenges
The election campaign is set amidst serious challenges, which will dominate the agenda for the foreseeable future.
The situation in the East remains most worrisome. A recent report by the UN estimates there are now 360.000
internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Donbas and an estimated 3.600 deaths with the number of casualties
continuing to rise despite the ceasefire. The Russian-backed separatists continue to battle to gain key infrastructure
such as Donetsk airport, eastern Ukraine's most important transport hub.
Opposition to Russia's actions spans all regions – east (78%), south (89%), central Ukraine (93%) and west (99%).
Moreover, 79% of Russian speakers and 95% of Ukrainian speakers oppose Russia's actions. There are different views
on what the government should do. While 73% of Ukrainians consider peace a key priority, 50% of Ukrainians
outside Donbas believe that Poroshenko is not using sufficient force in the region. At the same time, many Ukrainians
support the cessation of Kyiv's antiterrorist operation against the rebels because of the growing casualties. 
The "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" are increasingly regarded as obsolete and
criminal projects even among those who voted for independence in the so-called referendum. Ukrainians both
inside (42%) and outside Donbas (57%) believe that the separatists in Donbas only represent a minority of the
population in the region. However, a substantial section of people living in the two regions have not switched their
allegiance in favour of Ukraine. Pro-Russian sentiments mean different things to different people in the east. Many
people feel deceived and manipulated by the rebels but are still not necessarily pro-Ukrainian. In addition, the
majority of the population is not EU-friendly and considers the Union's policies to be a trigger for violence. They also
expect the EU, together with Russia, to share the costs of the disaster which have befallen their country.
The ceasefire agreement signed in Minsk in September needs to be fully adhered to by the Russians which continue to
violate a number of points including failing to secure the Ukraine-Russia border, and removing all of their troops from
Ukrainian territory. Despite agreements recently reached in Milan, there is a significant chance of the status quo
becoming increasingly consolidated. 
The economy
According to Global Pew Research over 90% of Ukrainians are concerned about the economy. Ukraine's GDP is
down almost 5% from a year ago, and industrial production is collapsing. Luhansk and Donetsk are seeing a
particularly sharp decline in economic activity, with GDP set to decline by 15-20% this year. Factories and
infrastructure in both regions have sustained direct losses because of the conflict. These losses, in tandem with the
significant fall in the output of companies operating in the region, are among the main reasons why the Ukrainian
economy is shrinking. Donbas, Ukraine's most industrialised region had a 16% share of the country's GDP in 2013
and generated around 25% of its exports.
The nation's currency, the Hryvnia, is of particular concern. It has been trading near record lows in spite of
currency controls, crippling the population's purchasing power. Its fall is unprecedented (over 11%), with Kyiv
failing to stem capital outflows. In the first half of 2014, Ukraine's foreign direct investment stock decreased by a
record $6 billion. 
While Kyiv has so far managed to remain on track with most of the IMF bailout conditions including energy market
reforms, spending cuts and tax rises, it may still become more difficult. Since agreeing a $17bn standby facility in April
the two main risks foreseen by the IMF, an escalation of the conflict in the east and a gas shut-off by Russia have
materialised. If the conflict in the east continues throughout 2015, it is now estimated that Ukraine may require as
much as $19bn in additional international financing. 
The gas dispute
Ukraine is dependent on natural gas from Gazprom, with gas accounting for some 40% of country's total energy
consumption. The fact that Russia cut off gas in June has left Ukraine in a perilous situation and had a direct impact on
ordinary people. Electricity prices are set to increase by 10-40% and gas for heat by 50%. Even in Kyiv, hot water and
electricity has become a luxury. The conflict in the East has resulted in a serious disruption of coal production, which
could have potentially helped offset the gas crisis. Talks between Ukraine, Russia and the EU seem to have reached an
agreement on the supply of gas at least for the winter period.
In the meantime other steps have been taken to help shore up Ukraine's energy security. This includes importing coal
from South Africa, reverse gas flow via the Ukraine-Slovakia interconnector and steps towards developing its shale gas
reserves. Ukraine has also secured a short-term deal with Norway's Statoil to supply Norwegian gas through Slovakia.
While the EU has pledged to hook Ukraine up to the EU's energy network, this remains work in progress and is far
from complete. Without reforming Ukraine's energy sector and reaching a long-term agreement with Russia the gas
dispute is likely to flare up again.
Fighting corruption
Transparency International's 2013 Corruption Perceptions Index ranked Ukraine 144th out of 177 countries.
Corruption in Ukraine is deeply embedded, touching all parts of society. It has been widespread at virtually all levels
of Ukrainian government and public life since independence. It has become a means for many Ukrainians to get what
they need, from healthcare to government contracts, and cracking down on it was a key demand of Maidan. While the
Rada recently passed a series of anti-corruption laws, including the creation of an anti-corruption bureau, there is a
significant amount of disappointment that in the post-Maidan period little has been done to effectively tackle
corruption. Unless there is a serious effort to tackling corruption on all levels, the issue will remain the most significant
obstacle towards the modernisation and democratisation of Ukraine.
All these challenges are exacerbated by Ukraine's relatively weak state. Employees in the state institutions still lack
incentives and promotion opportunities, while their salaries are low. The Army has been supported by civil society and
regular people's efforts: in some cases efforts done despite, not because of, the state. Despite the weakness of the state,
the prospects for reform are there, as demonstrated by the vibrancy of the civil society effort that has tried to plug the
gaps of the state. In addition to supporting the Army, civil society groups have been active in proposing draft laws and
lobbying for change. One such initiative is the Reanimation Reforms Package which includes over 100 civic groups
and experts who propose reform legislation and also, crucially, monitor its adoption and implementation. These efforts
are not enough, however, as the will of the ruling elite will be crucial in revamping Ukraine's governance system. 
PROSPECTS
Current polls show that the PPB is leading by a large margin with some 38% and seems set to have parliamentary
majority. However, even with a solid working majority, political stability is far from guaranteed. Political struggle has
always followed the 'winner takes all' pattern and in most electoral rounds it has been instigated by regional clan
rivalry. While Poroshenko may prefer to appoint a 'technical' prime minister, at this point Ukraine cannot afford to
engage in a battle for political positions as this could create a public backlash. Therefore, there is good chance that
Yatsenyuk, who is popular, will be returned to the post. Poroshenko will need to continue the balancing act that plays
between internal demands and external support and pressure from the US and the EU on the one hand, and Russia on
the other, which will be a significant challenge. One way to address some of these challenges could be to create a
larger parliamentary majority with parties committing to a genuine reform agenda.
No magic recipe
Despite the trust in Poroshenko, elections are unlikely to act as a magic recipe to resolve all of Ukraine's problems.
Beyond possible difficulties of cohabitation, the old establishment seems determined to cling on for as long as it can
and this may have a negative impact. Furthermore, vectors of change (activists, journalists and others who will become
European Policy Centre  Résidence Palace, 155 rue de la Loi, 1040 Brussels, Belgium 
Tel: +32 (0)2 231 03 40  Fax: +32 (0)2 231 07 04  Email: info@epc.eu  Twitter: @epc_eu  Website: www.epc.eu
With the support of the Europe for Citizens
Programme of the European Union.
deputies for the first time) are inexperienced and it may take them some time to master the ability to form their own
coalitions to allow them to push through their reform agenda. 
Another issue will be what role those activists, who will not make it to the Rada will play. Going forward, it will be
crucial to build a dialogue among different elites and people; also finding ways to pursue conflict resolution; some
forms of reconciliation, and confidence-building. Many people lost their loved ones who fought in Donbas. Those
who lost their homes, feel confused and uncertain about whom they should support and what they should believe. In
the long-term, it is important to think carefully about how to bring everyone closer together, so that the societal conflict
does not expand. 
It will also be significantly important for the government to gain trust, since Maidan trust in basic government
institutions and state services has been low. A poll by the International Republican Institute poll showed that 71% of
respondents stated that they held unfavourable opinion of the police, 73% held negative views of the prosecutor's
office, 75% have a negative view of political parties and 77% of people had negative views of Ukrainian courts.
Gaining back the legitimacy of these crucial state institutions will remain an important issue but will be far from easy.
The importance of the EU 
Support for Poroshenko's policy of EU membership has increased from 53% in April to 59%, while support for
membership in the Russian led Customs Union dropped to 17% from 24%. European integration can serve as a
compass for much needed reforms in several sectors, including those crucial for strengthening governance. While the
crisis in Ukraine has strengthened the country's relationship with the Union across the board, a long-term strategy is
still missing with the EU sticking to a step-by-step and 'let's wait and see' approach. While this is far from ideal,
Ukraine needs to accept that the EU and its members are not ready to go further (yet), and focus on demonstrating their
commitment to a European future by forging ahead with reform and having the EU engaged in as many areas as
possible which will further strengthen the level of integration between the two. 
Understanding nuances of Ukrainian politics can be helped by sedimenting a close link with civil society and other
important actors who can act as agents for change. This is something the EU should do, working with them to form
alliances and encouraging the reform agenda.
Ukrainians have proved they have the stamina to carry on sacrificing to achieve the goal of an independent, strong
and functioning country. In an International Republican Institute September poll, 55% of Ukrainians stated that they
were willing to live through some economic difficulties, including the needed reforms, in order to achieve long-term
improvements in the quality of life. The majority of Ukrainians also approve of Poroshenko, despite negative views on
economy and corruption. 
Today the greatest challenge facing Ukraine does not just come from Russia but from Ukraine itself. Security, stability
and prosperity will only be achieved if Ukraine's political elites make a complete break from the corrupt and criminal
style of governance that has plagued the country for the last two decades. After the elections reform must be the
priority. Building a strong and democratic country is the single most important step towards security and stability.
Avoiding the much needed reforms and failing to tackle corruption may not just disappoint the Ukrainian people but
could lead to a third Maidan. 
Amanda Paul is a Policy Analyst at the European Policy Centre and Svitlana Kobzar is Head of International Affairs
Department and Academic Director at the European Peace and Security Studies of the Vesalius College, VUB


The parliamentary elections in Ukraine: new hope? EPC Policy Brief, 21 October 2014

BACKGROUNDUkraine's parliamentary elections on 26 October 2014 seem set to be the most important and most challenging thecountry has ever held. In addition to the conflict in the East and the ongoing political crisis, there are deep-rootedeconomic and societal hurdles, as well as the continuing external threat emanating from Russia. Casting the ballot – under the likely fire of Russian-backed separatists and government forces in the East – is no easy exercise.The agreed cease-fire is insufficient to ensure that Ukrainians living in the war-plagued East as well as active soldierswill manage to express their vote. Yet the elections are crucial because the current composition of the 450 seat Parliament Verkhovna Rada, does notreflect the post-Maidan reality, and is unable to meet the challenges facing the country. A recent poll showed it hadonly a 15% approval rating. Furthermore, it is important for restoring democratic legitimacy. The removal from powerof former president Viktor Yanukovych led to an interim government predominantly composed of some of the mostforceful political forces from among the Maiden protesters. This drew significant rebuke from the East and Russia.For the first time in Ukraine's history, the presidential election of Petro Poroshenko in May gave many Ukrainians newhope. His victory seemed to unite the country, being the first president to have won in most of the regions despite theongoing conflict in the East. However, with many corrupt elites still in power, reforms have become hostage to vestedinterests and in-fighting which has raised fears of 'business as usual'. This situation is fostering mistrust among peoplewho supported Maidan, while further reinforcing the mistrust of those who did not. STATE OF PLAYSome 6.000 candidates are registered for the elections. Around two thirds of the current deputies are seeking re-elections, including 127 deputies who voted for the January 2014 "dictatorial laws". There are also many newfaces. A number of Maidan activists including the prominent journalists Mustafa Nayem and Serhii Leshchenko areamongst those running. However, they are split among different parties so some may not enter parliament (and atthe same time lose some of their credibility as pure activists); whereas others may get in but could becomeparalysed by inter-party rivalries. This will be the first post-independence election dominated by one party, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc (PPB), asprevious elections pitted two relatively evenly balanced parties representing different regional interests against eachother. The PPB along with the Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko, Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna, former UkrainianDefense Minister Anatoly Hrytsenko's Civil Position, and Prime Minister Arseny Yatseyuk's People's Front are allexpected to reach the 5% threshold required to enter the Rada. The right wing Svaboda along with the newly createdOpposition Bloc, which has risen from the ashes of the Party of Regions (PoR) have also a chance to make it.Numerous PoR faces are trying to cling to power either by joining established parties, including the PPB, or throughnew parties. Other parties include the Party of Development of Ukraine, which is led by former PoR deputy, YuriyMiroshnychenko, the Strong Ukraine Party of oligarch Serhiy Tihipko, and the Industrial Party. The latter was formed bya group of managers and directors from Ukraine's major heavy industries in the southeast linked to Rinat Akhmetov,the country's wealthiest person and include former close allies of Yanukovych such as Borys Kolesnikov and VadymNovinsky. Several other well-known oligarchs including former head of Yanukovych's Administration, SerhiyLiovochkin and Yuri Boyko, former Energy Minister are also part of the Opposition Bloc.The parliamentary elections in Ukraine: new hope?The King Baudouin Foundation is the strategic partner of the European Policy CentreAmanda Paul and Svitlana KobzarPOLICY BRIEF21 October 2014A far from perfect systemAs in 2012, Ukraine will continue to use a mixed electoral system. At the polls voters have two ballots: one to selecttheir local representative and another to select a political party. Unfortunately, this system can be abused in singleconstituencies which would not be possible in a proportional system with preferential lists. It allows voters (if thecandidate receives adequate votes) to improve a candidate's position on the list and thereby increases the likelihood ofthat candidate being in the 'passing party' of the list. While there had been some hopes that electoral reform couldtake place before the ballot, draft amendments for a new electoral law proposed at the end of July were blocked. Anumber of deputies, in particular from the PoR, who would almost certainly lose their seats with a proportionalsystem, were strongly opposed. Ukraine desperately needs far-reaching reforms but having numerous old faces whohave contributed to and benefited from, corrupt governance could make it more difficult.Furthermore, many 'old tricks' are being used to 'buy' votes including giving people food packages. Therefore,between the crisis on the ground and the cunning of many candidates, despite the presence of thousands ofinternational election monitors, there is still a risk of electoral fraud.The East and other challengesThe election campaign is set amidst serious challenges, which will dominate the agenda for the foreseeable future.The situation in the East remains most worrisome. A recent report by the UN estimates there are now 360.000internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Donbas and an estimated 3.600 deaths with the number of casualtiescontinuing to rise despite the ceasefire. The Russian-backed separatists continue to battle to gain key infrastructuresuch as Donetsk airport, eastern Ukraine's most important transport hub.Opposition to Russia's actions spans all regions – east (78%), south (89%), central Ukraine (93%) and west (99%).Moreover, 79% of Russian speakers and 95% of Ukrainian speakers oppose Russia's actions. There are different viewson what the government should do. While 73% of Ukrainians consider peace a key priority, 50% of Ukrainiansoutside Donbas believe that Poroshenko is not using sufficient force in the region. At the same time, many Ukrainianssupport the cessation of Kyiv's antiterrorist operation against the rebels because of the growing casualties. The "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" are increasingly regarded as obsolete andcriminal projects even among those who voted for independence in the so-called referendum. Ukrainians bothinside (42%) and outside Donbas (57%) believe that the separatists in Donbas only represent a minority of thepopulation in the region. However, a substantial section of people living in the two regions have not switched theirallegiance in favour of Ukraine. Pro-Russian sentiments mean different things to different people in the east. Manypeople feel deceived and manipulated by the rebels but are still not necessarily pro-Ukrainian. In addition, themajority of the population is not EU-friendly and considers the Union's policies to be a trigger for violence. They alsoexpect the EU, together with Russia, to share the costs of the disaster which have befallen their country.The ceasefire agreement signed in Minsk in September needs to be fully adhered to by the Russians which continue toviolate a number of points including failing to secure the Ukraine-Russia border, and removing all of their troops fromUkrainian territory. Despite agreements recently reached in Milan, there is a significant chance of the status quobecoming increasingly consolidated. The economyAccording to Global Pew Research over 90% of Ukrainians are concerned about the economy. Ukraine's GDP isdown almost 5% from a year ago, and industrial production is collapsing. Luhansk and Donetsk are seeing aparticularly sharp decline in economic activity, with GDP set to decline by 15-20% this year. Factories andinfrastructure in both regions have sustained direct losses because of the conflict. These losses, in tandem with thesignificant fall in the output of companies operating in the region, are among the main reasons why the Ukrainianeconomy is shrinking. Donbas, Ukraine's most industrialised region had a 16% share of the country's GDP in 2013and generated around 25% of its exports.The nation's currency, the Hryvnia, is of particular concern. It has been trading near record lows in spite ofcurrency controls, crippling the population's purchasing power. Its fall is unprecedented (over 11%), with Kyivfailing to stem capital outflows. In the first half of 2014, Ukraine's foreign direct investment stock decreased by arecord $6 billion. While Kyiv has so far managed to remain on track with most of the IMF bailout conditions including energy marketreforms, spending cuts and tax rises, it may still become more difficult. Since agreeing a $17bn standby facility in Aprilthe two main risks foreseen by the IMF, an escalation of the conflict in the east and a gas shut-off by Russia havematerialised. If the conflict in the east continues throughout 2015, it is now estimated that Ukraine may require asmuch as $19bn in additional international financing. The gas disputeUkraine is dependent on natural gas from Gazprom, with gas accounting for some 40% of country's total energyconsumption. The fact that Russia cut off gas in June has left Ukraine in a perilous situation and had a direct impact onordinary people. Electricity prices are set to increase by 10-40% and gas for heat by 50%. Even in Kyiv, hot water andelectricity has become a luxury. The conflict in the East has resulted in a serious disruption of coal production, whichcould have potentially helped offset the gas crisis. Talks between Ukraine, Russia and the EU seem to have reached anagreement on the supply of gas at least for the winter period.In the meantime other steps have been taken to help shore up Ukraine's energy security. This includes importing coalfrom South Africa, reverse gas flow via the Ukraine-Slovakia interconnector and steps towards developing its shale gasreserves. Ukraine has also secured a short-term deal with Norway's Statoil to supply Norwegian gas through Slovakia.While the EU has pledged to hook Ukraine up to the EU's energy network, this remains work in progress and is farfrom complete. Without reforming Ukraine's energy sector and reaching a long-term agreement with Russia the gasdispute is likely to flare up again.Fighting corruptionTransparency International's 2013 Corruption Perceptions Index ranked Ukraine 144th out of 177 countries.Corruption in Ukraine is deeply embedded, touching all parts of society. It has been widespread at virtually all levelsof Ukrainian government and public life since independence. It has become a means for many Ukrainians to get whatthey need, from healthcare to government contracts, and cracking down on it was a key demand of Maidan. While theRada recently passed a series of anti-corruption laws, including the creation of an anti-corruption bureau, there is asignificant amount of disappointment that in the post-Maidan period little has been done to effectively tacklecorruption. Unless there is a serious effort to tackling corruption on all levels, the issue will remain the most significantobstacle towards the modernisation and democratisation of Ukraine.All these challenges are exacerbated by Ukraine's relatively weak state. Employees in the state institutions still lackincentives and promotion opportunities, while their salaries are low. The Army has been supported by civil society andregular people's efforts: in some cases efforts done despite, not because of, the state. Despite the weakness of the state,the prospects for reform are there, as demonstrated by the vibrancy of the civil society effort that has tried to plug thegaps of the state. In addition to supporting the Army, civil society groups have been active in proposing draft laws andlobbying for change. One such initiative is the Reanimation Reforms Package which includes over 100 civic groupsand experts who propose reform legislation and also, crucially, monitor its adoption and implementation. These effortsare not enough, however, as the will of the ruling elite will be crucial in revamping Ukraine's governance system. PROSPECTSCurrent polls show that the PPB is leading by a large margin with some 38% and seems set to have parliamentarymajority. However, even with a solid working majority, political stability is far from guaranteed. Political struggle hasalways followed the 'winner takes all' pattern and in most electoral rounds it has been instigated by regional clanrivalry. While Poroshenko may prefer to appoint a 'technical' prime minister, at this point Ukraine cannot afford toengage in a battle for political positions as this could create a public backlash. Therefore, there is good chance thatYatsenyuk, who is popular, will be returned to the post. Poroshenko will need to continue the balancing act that playsbetween internal demands and external support and pressure from the US and the EU on the one hand, and Russia onthe other, which will be a significant challenge. One way to address some of these challenges could be to create alarger parliamentary majority with parties committing to a genuine reform agenda.No magic recipeDespite the trust in Poroshenko, elections are unlikely to act as a magic recipe to resolve all of Ukraine's problems.Beyond possible difficulties of cohabitation, the old establishment seems determined to cling on for as long as it canand this may have a negative impact. Furthermore, vectors of change (activists, journalists and others who will becomeEuropean Policy Centre  Résidence Palace, 155 rue de la Loi, 1040 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 (0)2 231 03 40  Fax: +32 (0)2 231 07 04  Email: info@epc.eu  Twitter: @epc_eu  Website: www.epc.euWith the support of the Europe for CitizensProgramme of the European Union.deputies for the first time) are inexperienced and it may take them some time to master the ability to form their owncoalitions to allow them to push through their reform agenda. Another issue will be what role those activists, who will not make it to the Rada will play. Going forward, it will becrucial to build a dialogue among different elites and people; also finding ways to pursue conflict resolution; someforms of reconciliation, and confidence-building. Many people lost their loved ones who fought in Donbas. Thosewho lost their homes, feel confused and uncertain about whom they should support and what they should believe. Inthe long-term, it is important to think carefully about how to bring everyone closer together, so that the societal conflictdoes not expand. It will also be significantly important for the government to gain trust, since Maidan trust in basic governmentinstitutions and state services has been low. A poll by the International Republican Institute poll showed that 71% ofrespondents stated that they held unfavourable opinion of the police, 73% held negative views of the prosecutor'soffice, 75% have a negative view of political parties and 77% of people had negative views of Ukrainian courts.Gaining back the legitimacy of these crucial state institutions will remain an important issue but will be far from easy.The importance of the EU Support for Poroshenko's policy of EU membership has increased from 53% in April to 59%, while support formembership in the Russian led Customs Union dropped to 17% from 24%. European integration can serve as acompass for much needed reforms in several sectors, including those crucial for strengthening governance. While thecrisis in Ukraine has strengthened the country's relationship with the Union across the board, a long-term strategy isstill missing with the EU sticking to a step-by-step and 'let's wait and see' approach. While this is far from ideal,Ukraine needs to accept that the EU and its members are not ready to go further (yet), and focus on demonstrating theircommitment to a European future by forging ahead with reform and having the EU engaged in as many areas aspossible which will further strengthen the level of integration between the two. Understanding nuances of Ukrainian politics can be helped by sedimenting a close link with civil society and otherimportant actors who can act as agents for change. This is something the EU should do, working with them to formalliances and encouraging the reform agenda.Ukrainians have proved they have the stamina to carry on sacrificing to achieve the goal of an independent, strongand functioning country. In an International Republican Institute September poll, 55% of Ukrainians stated that theywere willing to live through some economic difficulties, including the needed reforms, in order to achieve long-termimprovements in the quality of life. The majority of Ukrainians also approve of Poroshenko, despite negative views oneconomy and corruption. Today the greatest challenge facing Ukraine does not just come from Russia but from Ukraine itself. Security, stabilityand prosperity will only be achieved if Ukraine's political elites make a complete break from the corrupt and criminalstyle of governance that has plagued the country for the last two decades. After the elections reform must be thepriority. Building a strong and democratic country is the single most important step towards security and stability.Avoiding the much needed reforms and failing to tackle corruption may not just disappoint the Ukrainian people butcould lead to a third Maidan. Amanda Paul is a Policy Analyst at the European Policy Centre and Svitlana Kobzar is Head of International AffairsDepartment and Academic Director at the European Peace and Security Studies of the Vesalius College, VUB

http://aei.pitt.edu/56407/1/pub_4921_parliamentary_elections_in_ukraine.pdf

The parliamentary elections in Ukraine: new hope? EPC Policy Brief, 21 October 2014

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