Russia’s policy towards the Middle East is instrumental. Its activity in the
region has been growing since the middle of the last decade, and its aim is
to help Moscow achieve its objectives in other areas, particularly in its policies
towards the US and Europe, as well as its energy policy. The establishment
of these political influences constitutes a bargaining chip for Russia
in its relations with the US. Russia’s participation in resolving conflicts is
aimed at building up its image as a supra-regional power. Russia’s Middle
East policy is a key element in its contacts with the Muslim world. At the
same time, Russia’s policy in the region remains cautious – despite its return
to the region, Russia has not decided to ‘play’ for the Middle East, and
its position and role in the region remain limited.
The balance of power in the Middle East has been shifting in the aftermath
of the Arab revolutions. However, it does not seem that they have opened
up larger opportunities for Russian policy in the region. The Russian elite
has been divided in its assessment of the consequences of these events.
One part of it has displayed scepticism, treating the revolutions rather
as a threat than a chance to strengthen their own position. The revolutions
were not seen as democratisation processes, but rather as a destabilisation
of the region and as posing an increased danger from radical Islam.
For the other part of the elite, the revolutions were the natural consequence
of the social changes occurring in the region. This internal dispute made
it difficult for Russia to present a cohesive approach to the Arab revolutions,
and its stance was reactive.
The defensive position which Moscow adopted showed that Russia did not
have the potential to mould the political situation, either in the region as
a whole or its individual countries; neither did it display any willingness to
do so. What Moscow is doing is positioning itself in such a way so as not to
spoil relations with any other actor in the region, and to be able to exploit
any possible emerging opportunities in case of further-reaching changes
