Macroeconomic Synchronization and Monetary
Unions: Is the Euro Area more Synchronous than other
Monetary Unions and are Monetary Unions more Synchronous
than non-Monetary Unions?
Within currency unions, the conventional wisdom is that there should be a high
degree of macroeconomic synchronicity between the constituent parts of the union.
But this has not been tested compared to a base sample of countries that do not
belong to a monetary union, so this paper endeavors to do exactly that. Although
the US is probably one of the longest standing monetary unions in existence, there
are others such as Canada and Australia, which have similar federalist structures and
relatively independent States or Provinces. In this paper we take euro area data,
US State macro data, Canadian provincial data and Australian state data �namely
real Gross State Product (GSP), the GSP de�ator and unemployment data �and
use techniques relating to recurrence plots to measure the degree of synchronicity
of movement over time. The results are expected to show that for the most part
monetary unions are more synchronous than non-monetary unions and that the euro
area data is highly synchronous, particularly since the �financial crisis, compared to
other monetary unions