Last month New Jersey governor Phil Murphy won a second term, the first Democrat to do so in the Garden State for 44 years. Julia Sass Rubin takes a close look at the results of the off-year election, which saw a Republican red wave in some parts of the state and Democratic gains in others. The state’s uneven electoral geography, she writes, could have important implications for Democratic control of Congress in the long term

Sass Rubin, Julia

English

LSE Research Online

What	Happened?:	In	New	Jersey’s	election,Democrats	maintained	control	of	the	state,	butredistricting	could	cause	headaches	for	them	inCongressLast	month	New	Jersey	governor	Phil	Murphy	won	a	second	term,	the	first	Democrat	to	do	so	in	theGarden	State	for	44	years.	Julia	Sass	Rubin	takes	a	close	look	at	the	results	of	the	off-year	election,which	saw	a	Republican	red	wave	in	some	parts	of	the	state	and	Democratic	gains	in	others.	Thestate’s	uneven	electoral	geography,	she	writes,	could	have	important	implications	for	Democraticcontrol	of	Congress	in	the	long	term.	Following	the	2020	US	General	Election,	our	mini-series, ‘What	Happened?’,	explores	aspects	of	elections	atthe	presidential,	Senate,	House	of	Representative	and	state	levels,	and	also	reflects	on	what	the	electionresults	will	mean	for	US	politics	moving	forward.	If	you	are	interested	in	contributing,	please	contact	RobLedger	(ledger@em.uni-frankfurt.de)	or	Peter	Finn	(finn@kingston.ac.uk).On	the	face	of	it,	New	Jersey’s	latest	statewide	election	on	November	2nd	did	not	bring	much	change.	Democratsmaintained	strong	majorities	in	both	the	State	Senate	(60	percent)	and	Assembly	(58	percent)	and	DemocraticGovernor	Phil	Murphy	was	reelected	to	another	four-year	term.Beyond	this	topline,	however,	the	results	can	seem	somewhat	confusing.Although	Murphy’s	3.2	percent	margin	of	victory	was	smaller	than	what	pre-election	polling	had	predicted,	he	wasthe	first	Democratic	governor	of	New	Jersey	to	win	reelection	in	44	years.	He	also	was	the	first	candidate	in	40years	to	win	the	governorship	of	either	New	Jersey	or	Virginia	(the	two	states	that	hold	odd-year	elections	forgovernor	and	the	state	legislature),	in	the	year	after	his	party’s	candidate	first	won	the	presidency.Murphy	received	11.3	percent	more	votes	than	he	had	in	2017.	In	three	counties	–	Hunterdon,	Mercer,	andSomerset	–	Murphy	also	won	a	larger	share	of	the	total	vote	than	he	had	in	2017,	when	he	ran	against	thelieutenant	governor	of	a	very	unpopular	Republican	incumbent,	Chris	Christie.Murphy’s	challenger,	former	Assembly	Member	Jack	Ciattarelli,	received	39.5	percent	more	votes	than	theRepublican	candidate	for	governor	did	in	2017.	He	also	won	three	counties	–	Atlantic,	Cumberland	and	Gloucester–	that	Murphy	had	carried	four	years	earlier.Democrats	lost	eight	seats	in	the	legislature	–	two	in	the	State	Senate	and	six	in	the	Assembly.	However,	two	of	theAssembly	seats	were	lost	by	very	small	margins	(347	and	622	votes),	with	a	3rd	party	Green	candidate	drawingmore	than	1,150	votes	from	both	Democratic	candidates.	Democrats	also	gained	a	State	Senate	seat	in	CentralJersey	that	had	been	held	by	Republicans	for	48	years.What	explains	these	seemingly	divergent	results	and	what	does	it	all	mean	for	the	future	of	New	Jersey	politics?What	Happened?	The	substantial	uptick	in	votes	for	Republican	candidates	in	much	of	the	state	suggests	that	the	red	wave	thatswept	Virginia	and	other	parts	of	the	country	was	evident	in	New	Jersey	as	well.	Republicans	were	energized	asthe	party	out-of-power	at	both	the	federal	and	state	levels,	and	the	lingering	COVID-19	pandemic,	rising	inflation,and	infighting	among	congressional	Democrats	likely	further	boosted	their	enthusiasm.While	more	New	Jersey	Democrats	voted	than	in	2017,	in	most	of	the	state	the	Democratic	increases	were	smallerthan	Republican	ones.	This	pattern	of	greater	enthusiasm	by	the	party	out	of	power	helps	explain	why	the	party	thattook	the	Presidency	lost	Virginia	and	New	Jersey	in	17	out	of	the	last	20	gubernatorial	elections.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: In New Jersey’s election, Democrats maintained control of the state, but redistricting couldcause headaches for them in CongressPage 1 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-12-14Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/12/14/what-happened-in-new-jerseys-election-democrats-maintained-control-of-the-state-but-redistricting-could-cause-headaches-for-them-in-congress/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/New	Jersey’s	2021	Democratic	turnout	also	may	have	been	dampened	by	pre-election	polling	that	consistentlyshowed	Murphy	with	sizeable	leads.	The	expectations	of	an	easy	reelection	were	so	pervasive	that	the	editorialstaff	of	the	Jersey	Journal,	a	media	outlet	in	overwhelmingly	Democratic	Hudson	County,	advised	their	readers	toleave	the	governor’s	contest	blank	on	their	ballots	to	register	their	displeasure	with	Murphy’s	failure	to	protect	alocal	state	park.	The	Jersey	Journal	editorial	staff	emphasized	that	not	voting	for	Murphy	was	OK	because	he	would“almost	certainly	win	a	second	term.”Another	indication	that	expectations	of	an	easy	victory	may	have	dampened	Democratic	turnout	is	the	fact	that	thethree	counties	in	which	Murphy	exceeded	his	share	of	the	vote	total	relative	to	2017	were	the	sites	of	hotlycontested	state	senate	and	assembly	races	that	likely	increased	voter	engagement.	Competitive	legislative	racesare	rare	in	New	Jersey,	where	largely	non-competitive	legislative	districts	result	in	most	general	election	outcomesbeing	a	foregone	conclusion.“Governor	Murphy,	First	Lady	Tammy	Murphy”	(CC	BY-NC	2.0)	by	GovPhilMurphyNew	Jersey’s	uneven	electoral	geographyWhile	these	factors	help	explain	the	overall	levels	of	support	by	party,	why	were	the	results	so	different	across	thestate?New	Jersey	has	been	trending	increasingly	Democratic	over	the	last	few	decades.	Since	2000,	Democraticregistration	has	outpaced	Republican	by	more	than	two	to	one.	As	of	November	2021,	39	percent	of	New	Jerseyvoters	were	registered	as	Democrats;	23	percent	as	Republicans,	and	38	percent	as	unaffiliated	and	third	parties.This	translated	into	a	1,070,292	statewide	voter	advantage	for	Democrats	over	Republicans.That	registration	advantage	is	not	evenly	distributed	by	geography,	Democrats	hold	substantial	majorities	in	thenortheast	and	central-west	while	Republicans	have	majorities	in	seven	counties	located	in	the	northwest,	along	thecentral	shore,	and	in	parts	of	the	south	(Figure	1).Figure	1	–	New	Jersey	election	results	by	county	USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: In New Jersey’s election, Democrats maintained control of the state, but redistricting couldcause headaches for them in CongressPage 2 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-12-14Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/12/14/what-happened-in-new-jerseys-election-democrats-maintained-control-of-the-state-but-redistricting-could-cause-headaches-for-them-in-congress/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/As	Figure	2	shows,	over	the	last	twenty	years,	the	four	majority	Republican	counties	in	the	northwestern	part	of	thestate	have	consistently	trended	towards	the	Democratic	party.	This	is	particularly	noticeable	in	Hunterdon	andMorris	counties,	which	have	some	of	the	highest	rates	of	college	graduates	in	the	state,	reflecting	the	national	trendof	college	educated	voters	moving	towards	the	Democratic	party.	One	indication	of	this	trend	is	that	President	JoeBiden’s	2020	vote	share	in	the	four	northwestern	counties	was	higher	than	what	Democratic	presidential	candidateHilary	Clinton	received	in	2016.	Biden	also	won	Morris	County,	becoming	the	first	Democratic	Presidentialcandidate	to	carry	that	county	since	1964.Figure	2	–	Percentage	of	Registered	Republicans	to	Registered	Democrats	by	New	Jersey	County	2000-2021					USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: In New Jersey’s election, Democrats maintained control of the state, but redistricting couldcause headaches for them in CongressPage 3 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-12-14Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/12/14/what-happened-in-new-jerseys-election-democrats-maintained-control-of-the-state-but-redistricting-could-cause-headaches-for-them-in-congress/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/													Source:	US	Census	BureauAlthough	Governor	Murphy	lost	all	seven	majority-Republican	counties	in	both	2017	and	2021,	in	three	of	thenorthwestern	counties	–	Hunterdon,	Morris,	and	Warren	–	as	Figure	3	shows,	he	had	some	of	the	largestpercentage	increases	in	his	total	number	of	votes	relative	to	2017.Figure	3	–	Percentage	voting	for	Democratic	and	Republican	gubernatorial	candidates	2017/21	across	NewJersey	countiesUSApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: In New Jersey’s election, Democrats maintained control of the state, but redistricting couldcause headaches for them in CongressPage 4 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-12-14Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/12/14/what-happened-in-new-jerseys-election-democrats-maintained-control-of-the-state-but-redistricting-could-cause-headaches-for-them-in-congress/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Source:	US	Census	BureauBy	contrast,	Murphy	performed	much	worse	in	the	southern	part	of	the	state,	losing	the	five	southernmost	counties,including	three	he	had	carried	in	2017.	The	two	State	Senate	seats	and	four	of	the	six	Assembly	seats	thatDemocrats	lost	were	also	in	the	southern	part	of	the	state.One	explanation	for	Democrats’	poor	performance	in	the	southern	counties	is	the	national	shift	of	white	workingclass	voters	towards	the	Republican	party.	The	five	southernmost	counties	have	some	of	the	lowest	rates	of	collegecompletion	in	the	state.	Most	also	have	higher	percentages	of	non-Hispanic	whites	than	the	state	as	a	whole.	Onesign	of	this	shift	is	seen	in	registration	patterns	in	New	Jersey’s	southernmost	counties,	which	have	been	trendingmore	Republican	over	the	last	four	years,	including	the	three	counties	that	Murphy	won	in	2017	but	lost	in	2021.Another	possible	explanation	is	that	the	South	Jersey	Democratic	political	machine,	which	clashed	with	Murphy	formost	of	his	first	term,	did	not	push	as	hard	as	it	could	to	get	the	vote	out	for	the	governor.What	does	all	this	mean	for	the	2022	election	and	the	political	future	of	the	state?	The	diverse	voting	patterns	of	New	Jersey’s	21	counties	that	were	highlighted	by	the	2021	election	underscore	theimportance	of	the	redistricting	process	for	determining	the	outcome	of	the	2022	midterm	elections.	New	Jersey’scongressional	and	legislative	redistricting	is	done	by	bipartisan	commissions,	with	an	equal	number	of	membersappointed	by	the	leaders	of	the	state	Democratic	and	Republican	parties.	The	Chief	Justice	of	the	State	SupremeCourt	appoints	a	tiebreaker	for	each	commission.	Depending	on	whose	map	the	tiebreaker	selects,	New	Jerseycould	lock	in	the	current	10	to	2	Democratic	congressional	advantage	or	move	closer	to	the	congressionaldistribution	of	6	Democrats	and	6	Republicans	that	the	state	had	after	the	2010	redistricting.	The	outcome	wouldhave	obvious	and	substantial	consequences	for	the	Democrats’	ability	to	maintain	their	majority	in	the	US	House	ofRepresentatives.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: In New Jersey’s election, Democrats maintained control of the state, but redistricting couldcause headaches for them in CongressPage 5 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-12-14Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/12/14/what-happened-in-new-jerseys-election-democrats-maintained-control-of-the-state-but-redistricting-could-cause-headaches-for-them-in-congress/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Longer	term,	New	Jersey	is	likely	to	continue	the	trend	of	increasing	Democratic	dominance	in	both	congress	andthe	state	legislature.	Apart	from	Monmouth	and	Ocean,	the	two	Republican	trending	counties	on	the	eastern	shore,population	growth	in	the	state	has	been	concentrated	in	the	Democratic	strongholds.	While	the	state	populationincreased	by	nearly	six	percent	over	the	last	decade,	three	of	the	five	southern	counties	that	Murphy	lost	in	2021experienced	declines	in	population,	as	did	majority	Republican	Sussex	County	in	the	northwest.	Assuming	thecurrent	population	and	party	registration	trends	continue,	there	will	be	fewer	Republican-majority	counties	and	thosethat	remain	will	be	increasingly	geographically	isolated,	making	it	easier	to	consolidate	them	into	fewercongressional	and	legislative	districts.Editor’s	note:	This	article	was	amended	on	15	December	2021	to	clarify	that	Governor	Phil	Murphy	was	thefirst	candidate	in	40	years	to	win	the	governorship	of	either	New	Jersey	or	Virginia	in	the	year	after	his	party’scandidate	first	won	the	presidency.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.			Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	USAPP	–	American	Politics	and	Policy,	northe	London	School	of	Economics.	Shortened	URL	for	this	post:	https://bit.ly/30qvetnAbout	the	authorJulia	Sass	Rubin	–	Rutgers	UniversityJulia	Sass	Rubin	has	been	part	of	the	faculty	of	the	Edward	J.	Bloustein	School	of	Planning	and	PublicPolicy	at	Rutgers	University	since	2003.	Dr.	Rubin’s	research	interests	include	nonprofit	and	publicorganizations	and	processes,	developmental	finance,	and	the	intersection	of	education	policy,community	development	and	social	justice.	USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: In New Jersey’s election, Democrats maintained control of the state, but redistricting couldcause headaches for them in CongressPage 6 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-12-14Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/12/14/what-happened-in-new-jerseys-election-democrats-maintained-control-of-the-state-but-redistricting-could-cause-headaches-for-them-in-congress/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/

What happened?: In New Jersey’s election, Democrats maintained control of the state, but redistricting could cause headaches for them in Congress

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What happened?: In New Jersey’s election, Democrats maintained control of the state, but redistricting could cause headaches for them in Congress

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