Lee Elliot Major assesses the prospects for social mobility and economic recovery in Rishi Sunak’s 2021 Budget

Major, Lee Elliott

English

LSE Research Online

Sink	or	swim	time?	Social	mobility	and	the	2021BudgetLee	Elliot	Major	assesses	the	prospects	for	social	mobility	and	economic	recovery	in	RishiSunak’s	2021	Budget.Generations	growing	up	today	in	Britain	are	the	first	since	the	end	of	the	Second	World	War	toexperience	the	sinking	feeling	of	doing	worse	than	those	before	them.	On	this,	sociologists	andeconomists	can	agree.	Since	the	global	recession	in	2007/08,	the	signs	of	declining	absolutesocial	mobility	have	been	well	documented	–	whether	it	is	falling	real	terms	wages,	or	a	higherlikelihood	of	slipping	down	the	social	ladder.	Growing	economic	and	educational	inequalitiesduring	the	pandemic,	meanwhile,	could	plunge	‘generation	COVID’	into	even	deeper	waters.With	the	2021	Budget,	the	Chancellor	hopes	to	steer	the	country	onto	a	very	different	course.	Politicians	in	the	pasthave	promised	rising	tides	lifting	all	boats	and	trickle	down	effects.	Rishi	Sunak	similarly	wants	to	create	a	morebuoyant	economy	–	one	of	‘higher	wages,	higher	skills,	and	rising	productivity’.A	well-supported	education	system	is	key	to	this	vision.	Sunak	has	unveiled	an	extra	£4.7bn	for	schools	in	Englandby	2024/25.	This	may	sound	like	a	significant	increase,	but	it	will	only	restore	funding	in	schools	to	pre-austeritylevels	in	2010.	Headteachers	will	use	much	of	this	cash	to	cover	pay	(welcome)	increases	for	teachers	from	nextyear.	It	also	exposes	a	continuing	inequity	in	the	education	system:	further	education	colleges,	where	most	poorerpupils	end	up,	remain	grossly	underfunded	compared	with	schools.Treasury	officials	were	not	persuaded	by	the	case	put	forward	by	former	catch-up	tsar,	Sir	Kevan	Collins,	to	pay	fora	longer	school	day.	The	evidence	is	far	from	straightforward.	As	ever	in	education,	it	all	depends	on	what	extraschool	time	is	used	for	and	how	consistently	this	is	done	across	schools.The	Chancellor	has	pledged	another	£2bn	for	education	recovery	from	COVID-19,	bringing	spending	on	‘catch-up’since	2019	to	just	under	£5bn.	Much	of	this	will	be	devoted	to	the	government’s	flagship	national	tutoringprogramme.	A	key	challenge	will	be	the	variability	of	tutoring	offered	to	young	people	who	have	lost	learning	duringthe	pandemic.This	Budget	also	sets	out	the	government’s	aims	to	boost	skills	among	the	workforce,	amid	concerns	of	lowproductivity	in	different	regions	of	the	country.	Much	of	these	hopes	are	pinned	to	new	technical	post-GCSEqualifications	called	T	Levels.	Sunak	announced	£1.6bn	over	three	years	to	2024/25	for	up	to	100,000	youngpeople	taking	these	qualifications.	The	litmus	test	for	T	Levels	will	be	take-up	by	students	and	employers.	Pastattempts	to	introduce	high	status	technical	qualifications	have	failed	at	this	first	hurdle.There	are	plans	to	quadruple	places	on	‘skills	bootcamps’.	But	for	me,	there	is	a	missed	opportunity	to	introduceincentives	among	employers	to	re-skill	and	train	their	employees.	This	could	be	achieved	through	the	tax	system,	inthe	form	of	human	capital	tax	credits.	On	skills,	we	need	to	think	about	supply	and	demand.	Investing	in	humancapital	would	help	boost	the	economy,	addressing	a	chronic	shortage	of	intermediate	skills,	stagnating	productivity,and	falling	real	wages.The	Chancellor,	meanwhile,	announced	£560million	for	the	Multiply	scheme,	aimed	at	improving	numeracy	skillsacross	the	UK	for	up	to	500,000	adults.	Low	levels	of	numeracy	and	literacy	remain	a	national	scandal.	We	awaitthe	Department	for	Education’s	forthcoming	White	paper	for	plans	on	how	to	help	the	quarter	of	children	who	leaveschool	each	year	without	these	basic	skills.The	most	impactful	long-term	investment	could	turn	out	to	be	that	for	research	and	development,	rising	to	£20billionby	2024/25.	If	we	can	turn	the	country’s	world	leading	research	into	real	world	innovations	and	businesses,	thatcould	genuinely	boost	the	economy.	(In	the	meantime,	university	vice-chancellors	will	have	to	wait	for	news	onpotential	cuts	to	tuition	fees	and	new	student	number	controls	in	the	government’s	response	to	the	Augur	report	duein	the	coming	weeks.)British Politics and Policy at LSE: Sink or swim time? Social mobility and the 2021 Budget Page 1 of 2		Date originally posted: 2021-10-28Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/social-mobility-2021-budget/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/All	Budgets	are	to	some	extent	gambles	by	Chancellors,	looking	over	the	horizon	hoping	for	a	better	future.	Thespectre	that	haunts	this	Chancellor	is	rising	inflation	and	interest	rates.	Social	mobility	is	about	fairness	andopportunity	but	it	is	also	about	economic	prospects.	Positive	eye-catching	announcements	in	this	Budget	includedincreasing	the	national	minimum	wage,	ending	the	public	sector	pay	freeze,	and	reducing	the	universal	credit	taperrate.	These	will	be	quickly	forgotten	in	the	post-pandemic	era	if	living	costs	rise,	particularly	for	the	poorest	insociety.	That	will	mean	dark	clouds	and	choppy	seas	ahead.____________________About	the	AuthorLee	Elliot	Major	is	Professor	of	Social	Mobility	at	the	University	of	Exeter	and	an	Associate	ofthe	Centre	for	Economic	Performance	at	LSE.	His	latest	book	The	Good	Parent	Educator	is	anexpert	guide	for	parents	to	help	their	children’s	education	and	learning.			Photo	by	Sam	Balye	on	Unsplash.	British Politics and Policy at LSE: Sink or swim time? Social mobility and the 2021 Budget Page 2 of 2		Date originally posted: 2021-10-28Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/social-mobility-2021-budget/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/

Sink or swim time? Social mobility and the 2021 Budget

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/112876/1/politicsandpolicy_social_mobility_2021.pdf

Sink or swim time? Social mobility and the 2021 Budget

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

LSE Research Online