Does rising income inequality encourage voters to shift their support to populist parties? Drawing on a new study, Lukas F. Stoetzer explains that while inequality does appear to have a link with support for populist parties, we are still some distance from fully understanding how this relationship works in practice

Stoetzer, Lukas F.

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How	does	income	inequality	affect	support	forpopulist	parties?Does	rising	income	inequality	encourage	voters	to	shift	their	support	to	populist	parties?	Drawing	on	a	new	study,Lukas	F.	Stoetzer	explains	that	while	inequality	does	appear	to	have	a	link	with	support	for	populist	parties,	we	arestill	some	distance	from	fully	understanding	how	this	relationship	works	in	practice.Most	democratic	societies	have	experienced	a	rapid	increase	in	income	inequality	over	recent	decades.	AcrossOECD	countries,	the	average	share	of	disposable	income	earned	by	the	top	10%	has	increased	and	is	about	9.3times	higher	than	the	income	of	the	bottom	10%.	Income	inequality	has	probably	further	increased	during	theCovid-19	pandemic.	What	does	this	unequal	allocation	of	economic	resources	imply	for	liberal	democracies?In	the	last	couple	of	decades,	liberal	democracies	have	found	themselves	contested	by	populist	parties.	Theseparties	separate	society	into	two	homogeneous	groups	–	“the	pure	people”	versus	“the	corrupt	elite”	–	and	aim	toimplement	the	general	will	of	the	people	irrespective	of	existing	liberal	democratic	institutions.	While	mainstreamparties	have	suffered	dramatic	electoral	losses,	right-wing	and	left-wing	populist	parties	are	on	the	rise	all	overEurope.	More	than	one	in	four	voters	cast	their	vote	for	an	authoritarian	populist	party	the	last	time	they	voted	in	anational	election.Is	there	a	connection	between	rising	levels	of	inequality	and	support	for	populist	parties?	Public	discourse	wouldcertainly	suggest	that	rising	economic	inequality	is	a	likely	root	of	populism.	In	a	recent	interview,	the	politicalscientist	Michael	Zürn	noted	that	“the	cultural	division	of	society	and	growing	inequality	form	a	background	thatserves	the	rise	of	these	authoritarian	populists”.	Scholarly	articles	further	reveal	that	rising	inequality	can	go	hand	inhand	with	support	for	authoritarian	populist	parties.But	how	does	this	chain	of	events	work?	Inequality	can	only	be	understood	at	the	macro-level	when	comparing	thedistribution	of	income	in	the	population.	Yet	support	for	populist	parties	is	an	individual	decision.	It	is	difficult	to	seewhy	a	voter	should	be	more	likely	to	support	a	populist	party	when	the	top	10%	in	society	earn	say,	30%	of	netincome	rather	than	22%.	Arguments	that	attempt	to	connect	these	two	elements	are	obliged	to	outline	howmacroeconomic	conditions	influence	voting	decisions.	For	this	reason,	there	have	been	several	attempts	in	theacademic	literature	to	propose	a	set	of	channels	to	explain	how	increasing	inequality	might	lead	to	support	forpopulist	parties.The	link	between	inequality	and	support	for	populistsOne	of	the	most	prominent	arguments	is	that	income	inequality	leads	to	economic	risks	and	insecurities.	In	onesense,	this	relationship	is	almost	mechanical	as	an	increase	in	inequality	implies	that	the	share	of	people	who	earnrelatively	little	will	also	increase.	However,	the	argument	is	that	next	to	actual	income,	what	especially	matters	isperceived	economic	insecurity.	People	who	have	fallen	behind	or	that	fear	they	may	do	so	are	more	willing	to	turntheir	backs	on	mainstream	politics	and	embrace	populist	parties’	offers	to	put	their	interests	first.	The	relationshipbetween	economic	insecurity	and	support	for	authoritarian	populist	parties	is	well-established,	but	it	can	be	just	asimportant	for	left-wing	populist	parties	that	offer	strong	redistributive	platforms.Another	related	mechanism	emphasises	the	importance	of	trust	in	political	elites.	Rising	inequality	levels	can	distorttrust	in	representatives	from	mainstream	parties	–	either	because	voters	directly	observe	unequal	outcomes	andquestion	the	integrity	of	political	elites,	or	because	they	experience	increasing	economic	risks	and	hold	mainstreamparties	responsible	for	it.	Declining	trust	in	political	elites	may	therefore	explain	the	attraction	of	both	left-leaningand	right-wing	populist	parties.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: How does income inequality affect support for populist parties? Page 1 of 2		Date originally posted: 2021-11-11Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/11/11/how-does-income-inequality-affect-support-for-populist-parties/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/The	debate	about	the	roots	of	populism	sometimes	distinguishes	between	cultural	and	economic	explanations.Inequality	is	often	described	as	a	pure	economic	cause.	This	is	not	necessarily	true,	as	rising	inequality	can	alsohave	cultural	consequences.	According	to	another	argument,	rising	income	inequality	leads	to	social	stratificationand	social	marginalisation.	Voters	that	feel	marginalised	are	receptive	to	populist	rhetoric	blaming	elites	for	notrepresenting	the	“true	people”,	making	them	more	likely	to	support	populist	parties.	Similarly,	rising	inequality	levelscan	also	affect	identities	–	another	cornerstone	for	proponents	of	cultural	explanations.	This	argument	states	thatunequal	incomes	make	it	more	attractive	for	low-income	voters	to	identify	with	the	nation-state,	rather	than	theworking	class,	and	hence	an	increase	in	income	inequality	can	draw	people	towards	authoritarian	right-wingpopulist	parties.Testing	the	mechanismsWhich	of	the	mechanisms	is	empirically	valid?	This	is	tricky	to	evaluate	given	the	vote	shares	for	populist	partiesand	levels	of	inequality	are	rising	in	different	countries.	In	a	recent	study,	I	(along	with	my	co-authors)	turn	toindividual	data	from	the	European	Social	Survey	to	present	a	first	comprehensive	test	of	the	four	mechanisms.Interestingly,	we	find	no	clear	evidence	that	any	of	the	four	mechanisms	sufficiently	explains	the	relationshipbetween	higher	levels	of	inequality	and	support	for	populist	parties.Trust	in	political	elites	and	economic	insecurities	are	both	influenced	by	income	inequalities,	and	they	affect	supportfor	populist	parties,	resulting	in	a	potential	chain	of	events.	However,	for	two	voters	with	similar	levels	of	trust	inelites	and	who	face	similar	economic	insecurities,	we	still	estimate	that	the	voter	that	lives	in	a	country	with	higherincome	inequality	is	more	likely	to	support	populist	parties.	Hence,	the	two	consequences	are	insufficient	to	explainthe	effect	of	inequality	on	support	for	populism.For	us,	this	leaves	a	big	question	mark	as	to	how	exactly	inequality	leads	to	populism.	Without	a	clearunderstanding	of	the	sequences	of	causes,	it	is	difficult	to	design	effective	interventions.	It	is	therefore	unclear	howpolicies	can	balance	the	negative	consequences	for	liberal	democracies.	Will	voters	refrain	from	turning	to	populistparties	if	they	live	in	strong	welfare	states	that	secure	against	economic	risks	from	rising	inequality?	Dotransparency	laws	break	the	link	between	unequal	economic	outcomes	and	a	reduction	in	trust	in	elites?	Ourfindings	call	for	further	research	to	understand	the	relationship	between	the	allocation	of	economic	resources	andthe	support	for	populist	parties	that	challenge	the	principles	of	liberal	democracy.For	more	information,	see	the	author’s	accompanying	paper	(co-authored	with	Johannes	Giesecke	andHeike	Klüver)	at	the	Journal	of	European	Public	PolicyNote:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics.	Featured	image	credit:	Lubo	Minar	on	UnsplashLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: How does income inequality affect support for populist parties? Page 2 of 2		Date originally posted: 2021-11-11Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/11/11/how-does-income-inequality-affect-support-for-populist-parties/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

How does income inequality affect support for populist parties?

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How does income inequality affect support for populist parties?

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