What effect might the outcome of the US election have on the current Brexit negotiations? Joe Biden’s victory signals a dramatic shift in American foreign policy. This means that Boris Johnson’s Irish border gambles look increasingly risky, argues Colin Provost (UCL)

Provost, Colin

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LSE Research Online

With	Biden’s	election,	Johnson’s	Irish	border	gambleslook	increasingly	riskyWhat	effect	might	the	outcome	of	the	US	election	have	on	the	current	Brexit	negotiations?	Joe	Biden’s	victorysignals	a	dramatic	shift	in	American	foreign	policy.	This	means	that	Boris	Johnson’s	Irish	border	gambles	lookincreasingly	risky,	argues	Colin	Provost	(UCL).Brexit	has	not	been	an	easy	ride	for	the	British	public	or	for	any	of	the	politicians	or	civil	servants	involved	in	itsnegotiation.	While	Brexiteers	once	promised	that	the	UK	would	“take	back	control”	and	be	free	from	EU	regulations,relatively	open	borders	and	far-reaching	legal	jurisdiction,	we	have	instead	seen	negotiations	with	the	EUrepeatedly	approach	the	brink	of	a	no-deal	Brexit,	only	to	be	pulled	back	at	the	last	second,	while	extensions	andtransitions	delay	the	final	exit.	Boris	Johnson’s	recent	attempts	to	pass	the	Internal	Market	Bill	that	violates	theterms	of	his	own	2019	withdrawal	treaty	from	the	EU	once	again	raise	the	very	real	possibility	of	a	no-deal	Brexit.However,	the	political	ground	underneath	Johnson’s	government	has	recently	shifted,	as	Joe	Biden’s	victory	in	the2020	US	presidential	election	signals	a	dramatic	forthcoming	shift	in	American	foreign	policy.To	understand	the	current	negotiations,	it	is	vital	to	comprehend	the	importance	of	the	border	between	Ireland	andNorthern	Ireland	–	the	single	largest	thorn	in	the	side	of	Brexit	negotiations.		Leaving	the	EU	without	a	trade	dealhas	always	meant	re-establishing	a	hard	border,	as	customs	checks	would	need	to	be	performed	on	goods	crossingthe	border.		While	the	1998	Good	Friday	Agreement	–	the	treaty	that	effectively	brought	an	end	to	The	Troubles	–does	not	explicitly	forbid	a	hard	border,	most	observers	agree	that	a	hard	border	is	not	desirable	and	runs	counterto	the	spirit	of	the	agreement.The	2019	Withdrawal	Agreement	crafted	by	Boris	Johnson’s	government	allegedly	sorted	this	problem	by	fixing	theborder	in	the	Irish	Sea,	while	keeping	Northern	Ireland	primarily	aligned	with	EU	regulatory	standards,	to	avoid	thehard	customs	border.	It	was	this	agreement	that	helped	Johnson	cruise	to	victory	in	the	2019	election	on	the	backof	the	slogan,	“Get	Brexit	Done”.		However,	the	presence	of	the	border	in	the	Irish	Sea	means	that	goods	movingfrom	Northern	Ireland	to	the	rest	of	the	UK	must	clear	customs.		The	government’s	Internal	Market	Bill	is	designedto	give	ministers	the	right	to	overrule	this	part	of	EU	law,	as	well	as	EU	state	aid	conditions	that	apply	to	goods	inNorthern	Ireland.		But	while	this	flexibility	may	represent	the	sort	of	taking	back	control	originally	envisaged	byJohnson	and	other	Brexiteers,	it	nevertheless	threatens	the	Irish	border	status	agreed	to	in	2019,	thereby	puttingthe	government	in	breach	of	the	Withdrawal	Agreement	and	international	law.Johnson	has	faced	pushback	from	EU	negotiators	and	from	within	his	own	party	for	going	ahead	with	the	bill.		OnNovember	9th,	the	bill	was	overwhelmingly	defeated	in	the	House	of	Lords,	but	Johnson	has	signalled	intentions	torevise	slightly	the	bill,	while	proceeding	apace	with	its	law-breaking	elements.LSE Brexit: With Biden’s election, Johnson’s Irish border gambles look increasingly risky Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-11-17Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/11/17/with-bidens-election-johnsons-irish-border-gambles-look-increasingly-risky/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/LSE Brexit: With Biden’s election, Johnson’s Irish border gambles look increasingly risky Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-11-17Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/11/17/with-bidens-election-johnsons-irish-border-gambles-look-increasingly-risky/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/How	does	the	incoming	Biden	Administration	affect	the	thinking	around	the	Internal	Market	Bill?President-Elect	Biden	cares	about	what	happens	in	UK-EU	negotiations,	whereas	it	is	not	clear	to	what	extentPresident	Trump	does	or	did	care.	In	most	ways,	Biden	is	the	opposite	of	Trump,	but	especially	in	foreign	policy.Biden	served	in	the	US	Senate	for	decades	and	has	developed	significant	expertise	in	negotiation	and	foreignpolicy.		Whereas	President	Trump	sought	to	take	a	wrecking	ball	to	the	established	order	of	multilateral	treaties	andinstitutions,	Joe	Biden	very	much	seeks	to	preserve	it.	And	he	clearly	believes	that	the	Internal	Market	Bill,	possiblyfollowed	by	a	no-deal	Brexit,	would	have	destructive	consequences	for	the	Good	Friday	Agreement	and	peace	inNorthern	Ireland.		But	what	can	the	incoming	president	actually	do	to	steer	Downing	Street	in	his	preferreddirection?What	the	victory	of	Joe	Biden	does	for	the	Brexit	negotiations	is	effectively	add	a	stern	and	carefully	scrutinisingobserver.	Whereas	Donald	Trump	would	have	stood	on	the	sidelines	and	cheered	Boris	Johnson	on	to	deliver	redmeat	to	Brexiteers	with	rebukes	to	Michel	Barnier	and	the	EU	negotiators,	Joe	Biden	will	be	looking	to	ensure	that	atrade	deal	between	the	EU	and	UK	is	achieved,	thereby	avoiding	a	hard	border	in	Ireland	and	preserving	theintegrity	of	the	Good	Friday	Agreement.	Of	course,	Biden	will	still	be	the	president-elect	by	the	time	the	UK	formallyleaves	the	EU	on	January	1,	2021,	so	Biden	can	only	leverage	the	promise	of	future	action	(or	inaction)	as	a	carrotor	stick	for	the	Prime	Minister.		Johnson’s	government	is	eager	for	a	trade	deal	with	the	US,	so	doing	the	right	thinghere	in	the	eyes	of	the	US	might	be	rewarded	further	down	the	road.		Conversely,	taking	actions	that	lead	to	a	no-deal	Brexit	and	a	hard	Irish	Border	will	eliminate	the	prospect	of	a	US-UK	trade	deal	happening	anytime	soon.Given	this	political	reality,	it	would	seem	that	the	Prime	Minister	would	be	pragmatic	and	remove	the	offendingclauses	from	the	Internal	Market	Bill.		After	all,	the	list	of	those	clamouring	for	such	an	excision	includes	EUnegotiators,	Joe	Biden,	Tory	backbenchers	and	a	fairly	overwhelming	majority	in	the	House	of	Lords.		Additionally,the	Prime	Minister	has	had	four	and	a	half	years	to	come	to	terms	with	the	fact	that	preventing	the	re-establishmentof	a	hard	land	border	means	keeping	to	some	degree	the	EU	Single	Market	in	Northern	Ireland	and	ceding	somesovereignty	to	the	EU.	The	Prime	Minister	cannot	have	it	both	ways.But	Johnson	appears	determined	to	move	forward	with	the	bill	intact,	even	as	some	of	the	loudest	pro-Brexit	voicesin	his	government,	such	as	Dominic	Cummings,	exit	Downing	Street.	It	is	not	clear	if	he	is	embracing	a	negotiatingstrategy	that	borders	on	reckless,	less	than	two	months	before	the	transition	period	ends,	or	if	he	really	believesthat	the	Internal	Market	Bill	will	prevent	a	hard	Irish	border,	as	he	has	maintained.	Time	is	running	out	for	him	toconvince	Michel	Barnier	and	now	Joe	Biden	as	well,	which	seems	an	increasingly	impossible	task.	If	he	is	unable	toconvince	them	of	the	value	of	the	Internal	Market	Bill,	the	UK	will	be	more	likely	to	head	towards	a	no-deal	Brexitand	the	honeymoon	with	the	Biden	Administration	will	be	over	before	it	can	begin.This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	LSE	Brexit,	nor	of	the	London	School	ofEconomics.	Image	by	Eric	Haynes,	(CC	BY-NC-ND	3.0).LSE Brexit: With Biden’s election, Johnson’s Irish border gambles look increasingly risky Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-11-17Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/11/17/with-bidens-election-johnsons-irish-border-gambles-look-increasingly-risky/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/

With Biden’s election, Johnson’s Irish border gambles look increasingly risky

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/107633/1/brexit_2020_11_17_with_bidens_election_johnsons_irish_border_gambles.pdf

With Biden’s election, Johnson’s Irish border gambles look increasingly risky

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