Two opposition coalitions won a surprise majority at the Czech parliamentary election on 8-9 October. Jan Rovny writes the result represented a resounding victory for moderate opposition forces over the populist illiberalism of Prime Minister Andrej Babiš

Rovny, Jan

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LSE Research Online

Populism	punished:	The	2021	Czech	parliamentaryelectionTwo	opposition	coalitions	won	a	surprise	majority	at	the	Czech	parliamentary	election	on	8-9	October.	Jan	Rovnywrites	the	result	represented	a	resounding	victory	for	moderate	opposition	forces	over	the	populist	illiberalism	ofPrime	Minister	Andrej	Babiš.The	2021	Czech	parliamentary	election	assumed	the	air	of	a	referendum	on	the	rule	of	Prime	Minister	Andrej	Babiš.Babiš,	a	millionaire	businessman	accused	of	corruption	and	implicated	in	the	recent	Pandora	Papers,	campaignedin	support	of	the	common	folk	and	against	the	purported	vagaries	of	European	unification,	primarily	associated	withuncontrolled	migration.	The	opposition	primarily	campaigned	against	Babiš.The	knife-edge	contest	ended	with	a	narrow	victory	for	the	opposition	coalition	SPOLU,	uniting	established	right-wing	parties,	the	conservative	ODS	and	TOP09,	and	the	Christian	Democratic	KDU-ČSL,	with	27.8%.	Babiš’spopulist	movement,	ANO,	came	in	a	near	second	with	27.1%	of	the	vote.	However,	given	a	new	method	forcalculating	parliamentary	seats,	ANO	received	one	mandate	more	than	SPOLU.	The	third	party,	with	15.6%	of	thevote,	was	the	coalition	of	the	social	liberal	Pirate	Party	and	the	centre-right	Mayors	and	Independents	(STAN).	Thelast	grouping	to	enter	parliament	was	the	radical	right	SPD	with	9.6%	of	the	vote.Figure:	Distribution	of	seats	after	the	2021	Czech	parliamentary	electionNote:	Figure	created	with	Flourish.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Populism punished: The 2021 Czech parliamentary election Page 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-10-11Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/10/11/populism-punished-the-2021-czech-parliamentary-election/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/The	election	provided	three	important	lessons	on	the	effects	of	populism.	The	first	lesson	is	the	poisonous	power	ofpopulism.	By	becoming	the	dominant	figure	of	Czech	politics,	increasingly	adapting	the	rhetoric	and	strategy	ofilliberalism,	Andrej	Babiš	weakened	his	allies,	and	strengthened	his	opponents.	While	the	outcome	endows	Babišand	ANO	with	the	largest	number	of	parliamentary	seats,	it	leaves	him	in	an	impossible	position	to	negotiate	thenext	governing	coalition,	almost	certainly	paving	the	way	for	government	turnover.Second,	the	left	has	been	left	out,	as	historical	left-wing	parties	recorded	their	worst	electoral	result	and	findthemselves	stripped	of	parliamentary	representation.	Finally,	the	election	demonstrated	that	when	democraticopponents	of	illiberalism	put	aside	their	differences	and	coordinate,	they	can	defeat	populism.The	poisonous	power	of	populismAndrej	Babiš’s	political	movement,	ANO,	is	a	personalistic	outfit	with	chameleonic	tendencies.	Initially	built	as	ananti-corruption	platform,	it	purported	to	bring	apolitical	pragmatism	into	politics.	Mixing	Babiš’s	business	profile	withfolkish	overtones	of	hard	work,	it	sought	and	succeeded	to	attract	voters	from	across	the	political	spectrum.Previously,	ANO’s	core	characteristic	revolved	around	atomised	political	proposals	with	no	overarching	politicalidentity,	under	an	official	veneer	of	centrism.	This	was	peppered	with	Babiš’s	idiosyncratic	outbursts	against	hisopponents,	against	the	EU,	and	against	migration,	adding	a	punchier,	radical	and	illiberal	edge	to	an	otherwisesmooth	image.Over	time,	the	polished	surface	of	ANO	has	lost	its	coating	and	the	2021	election	campaign	normalised	Babiš’soutbursts.	The	movement’s	programme	opened	with	Babiš’s	preface	focusing	on	national	sovereignty,	opposition	tothe	EU,	heightened	references	to	migration,	and	caricaturing	the	party’s	political	opponents.	The	campaign	sloganof	“until	my	body	is	torn	apart”	personalised	Babiš	as	the	defender	of	the	common	people	to	his	last	breath.Substantively,	ANO’s	programme	was	more	focused	on	an	increased	role	for	the	state	in	social	affairs,infrastructure	and	security,	combined	with	promises	of	balanced	budgets	and	low	taxes.	ANO’s	ethno-populistthrust,	intertwined	with	a	blurry	marriage	of	social	spending	and	fiscal	frugality	is	reminiscent	of	western	Europeanradical	right	parties.The	previous	parliamentary	term	saw	the	construction	of	an	increasingly	effective	populist	political	bloc.	The	2017election	left	the	governing	ANO	and	electorally	decimated	Social	Democrats	short	of	a	parliamentary	majority,ultimately	forcing	them	to	rely	on	the	votes	of	the	communist	KSČM.	Giving	communist	parliamentarians	indirectaccess	to	the	levers	of	power	breeched	a	taboo	in	a	country	where	most	people	still	remember	the	fall	of	thecommunist	dictatorship	as	a	monumental	milestone.In	the	ensuing	years,	Babiš	sought	to	increase	his	influence	over	the	courts,	while	ostentatiously	cosying	up	toilliberal	leaders	like	Victor	Orbán.	The	decision	to	prop	up	the	governing	coalition	with	communist	votes	and	the	useof	authoritarian	tactics	similar	to	those	seen	in	Hungary	and	Poland,	coupled	with	ANO’s	erratic	policies	during	theCovid-19	pandemic,	had	two	consequences.	It	deepened	the	ideological,	as	well	as	the	symbolic	chasm	betweenthe	government	and	opposition,	and	it	clarified	the	position	of	ANO	as	a	leftish	and	proto-authoritarian	politicalforce.ANO,	the	biggest	player	in	Czech	politics,	thus	transcended	its	chameleonic	veneer	which	had	initially	given	it	anability	to	appeal	left	and	right,	and	become	unquestionably	associated	with	illiberalism.	Babiš’s	attempts	to	acquirea	firmer	grip	on	power	came	at	the	cost	of	indirectly	undermining	his	allies,	and	inadvertently	mobilising	hisopponents.Left	outThe	two	historical	left-wing	parties,	the	social	democratic	ČSSD	whose	history	reaches	as	far	as	1878,	and	thecommunist	KSČM	that	goes	back	exactly	100	years,	recorded	their	worst	ever	results,	leaving	them	withoutparliamentary	representation.	The	ČSSD’s	4.7%	undermines	the	party’s	thirty-year	dominance	of	the	centre-left.The	KSČM’s	3.6%	was	a	bitter	anniversary	gift,	ending	a	long	parliamentary	presence	of	this,	once	unopposed,leader	of	the	communist	regime.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Populism punished: The 2021 Czech parliamentary election Page 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-10-11Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/10/11/populism-punished-the-2021-czech-parliamentary-election/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Both	parties	have	been	overwhelmed	by	their	own	struggles,	but	they	have	also	each	succumbed	to	the	populistorbit	of	ANO.	The	social	democrats	have	been	the	core	of	centre-left	politics	in	the	Czech	Republic	since	theirelectoral	success	in	1996.	Recent	years	have,	however,	seen	their	electoral	support	dwindle,	as	their	traditionalworking	and	public-sector	middle-class	electorates	shifted.	A	battle	for	the	soul	of	the	party	has	played	out	betweena	liberal	wing,	seeking	to	turn	toward	more	socially	liberal	politics	centred	on	Europe,	and	a	conservative	wingwhich	led	the	party	into	these	elections	in	the	tow	of	ANO	and	its	illiberal	and	eastward-looking	populism.	Thedecision	to	follow	ANO	both	in	government	and	in	the	party’s	political	orientation	has	been	disastrous	for	the	party’selectoral	appeal.Meanwhile,	from	its	heyday	at	the	helm	of	the	authoritarian	regime,	the	KSČM	has	been	reduced	to	a	radical	leftprotest	party	in	the	post-1989	democracy.	Demographic	replacement	of	its	elder	voters,	nostalgic	for	communistregime	certainties,	has	driven	the	party’s	decline.	However,	the	recent	rise	of	cultural	themes,	centring	on	fears	ofmigration	advanced	by	the	SPD	and	increasingly	by	ANO,	has	changed	the	substance	of	protest	politics.	Theparty’s	core	districts	in	the	post-industrial	northern	regions	have	shifted	allegiance	to	ANO	and	the	SPD.	Despitetheir	opposition	to	migration	and	calls	for	a	Czexit	referendum,	the	historically	Marxist	KSČM	has	been	unable	tooutmanoeuvre	the	SPD	and	ANO.	The	left’s	dance	with	populism	has	proven	to	be	a	danse	macabre.Opening	an	oppositionThe	election	ultimately	represents	a	resounding	victory	for	the	moderate	opposition	forces	which	have	managed	tosmooth	over	their	differences	and	unite	against	populist	illiberalism.	The	decisive	anchoring	of	ANO	in	the	left-authoritarian	political	space	and	the	development	of	its	illiberal	bloc	galvanised	an	unprecedented	coordination	ofopposition	forces.	First,	a	new	citizen	initiative,	“A	Million	Moments	for	Democracy”,	organised	a	campaign	ofdemocratic	meetings	and	demonstrations,	the	largest	of	which	gathered	an	estimated	250,000	people,	making	it	thebiggest	protest	since	the	fall	of	communism.	While	explicitly	targeting	the	conflict	of	interest	and	undemocratictactics	of	Prime	Minister	Babiš,	the	initiative	sought	to	educate,	focus	and	unite	democratically-minded	citizens.Consequently,	in	the	runup	to	the	2021	election,	moderate	opposition	parties	became	increasingly	denoted	as“democratic”	parties.	This	stressed	both	their	distance	from	the	government	and	from	its	communist	and	radicalright	supporters	and	sympathisers,	as	well	as	their	closeness	to	each	other.	Eventually,	before	the	2021	electionfive	democratic	parties	formed	two	coalitions,	significantly	reducing	the	complexity	of	the	political	field.The	SPOLU	coalition	united	mainstream	conservatives	and	Christian	Democrats	with	significant	history	and	priorgoverning	experience.	The	coalition	focused	on	the	traditional	right-wing	politics	of	fiscal	responsibility,	economicdynamism,	and	family-focused	welfare.	Despite	prior	tendencies	of	some	of	their	members	towards	softEuroscepticism,	their	programme	was	explicitly	pro-European.	The	second	democratic	coalition	united	the	socialliberal	Pirate	Party,	which	effectively	fulfils	the	political	role	of	a	Green	party	in	the	Czech	party	system	and	issupported	by	young	and	educated	urbanites,	with	the	locally	rooted,	centre-right	Mayors	and	Independents,	knownby	the	acronym	STAN.	While	presenting	a	well-rounded	liberal	programme,	the	coalition	came	under	fire	from	Babišfor	allegedly	seeking	to	turn	the	country	into	“Piratostan”.It	is	notable	that	five	diverse	parties	managed	to	build	two	coalitions,	combine	their	efforts,	and	gain	a	parliamentarymajority.	Their	cooperation	is	a	genuine	success	and	a	manual	for	the	defeat	of	populists	and	illiberals	that	is	nowbeing	emulated	in	Hungary.	Simultaneously,	their	marriage	is	not	even	a	marriage	of	convenience,	but	one	ofnecessity.	Intra-coalition	rivalries	were	exemplified	by	the	Mayors’	candidates	seeking	preferential	votes	to	overtaketheir	Pirate	colleagues	in	the	battle	for	parliamentary	seats	–	a	successful	strategy	that	saw	the	Pirates	lose	18seats,	while	the	Mayors	gained	17.Divided	we	standPrime	Minister	Babiš	will	do	what	he	can	to	exploit	these	cracks.	President	Zeman,	an	ailing	ally	of	Babiš,	hasalready	signalled	that	he	will	ask	the	leader	of	the	largest	party	–	not	of	the	largest	coalition	–	to	form	the	nextgovernment,	suggesting	that	Babiš	will	get	one	more	chance.	The	parliamentary	arithmetic,	giving	anti-Babiš	forcesan	eight	seat	majority,	is,	however,	insurmountable.By	solidifying	the	democratic	camp	opposed	to	Babiš,	and	by	eliminating	the	traditional	left	from	parliament,	the2021	Czech	elections	have	concluded	the	reshaping	of	Czech	political	competition.	Traditionally	based	on	classicalclass	divisions,	Czech	politics	now	follows	the	demarcation	of	many	contemporary	democracies.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Populism punished: The 2021 Czech parliamentary election Page 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-10-11Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/10/11/populism-punished-the-2021-czech-parliamentary-election/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Like	its	counterparts	in	the	United	States	or	in	France,	the	new	Czech	parliament	pits	two	opposing	camps	againsteach	other.	On	one	side	stand	the	proponents	of	internationalism	and	cultural	openness,	embodied	particularly	bythe	Pirates	and	STAN.	On	the	other	is	ethno-nationalist	exclusion,	utilised	by	Babiš	and	ANO,	and	personified	bythe	radical	right	SPD.	Rather	than	social	class,	today	it	is	education	and	the	urban-rural	divide	that	determines	theside	one	stands	on.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics.	Featured	image	credit:	European	CouncilLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Populism punished: The 2021 Czech parliamentary election Page 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-10-11Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/10/11/populism-punished-the-2021-czech-parliamentary-election/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Populism punished: the 2021 Czech parliamentary election

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Populism punished: the 2021 Czech parliamentary election

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