Issues surrounding Muslims have become a prominent feature of French politics. Drawing on a new study, Steven M. Van Hauwaert and Manlio Cinalli present a novel measure of how views toward Muslims have changed within France, and how government policies have responded to these shifts in public opinion

Cinalli, Manilo

Van Hauwaert, Steven

English

LSE Research Online

Contentious	politics	and	policy	congruence:	HowFrench	society	responds	to	MuslimsIssues	surrounding	Muslims	have	become	a	prominent	feature	of	French	politics.	Drawing	on	a	new	study,	StevenM.	Van	Hauwaert	and	Manlio	Cinalli	present	a	novel	measure	of	how	views	toward	Muslims	have	changed	withinFrance,	and	how	government	policies	have	responded	to	these	shifts	in	public	opinion.Issues	related	to	Muslims	play	an	important	role	in	today’s	politics,	especially	in	France,	where	Republican	valuesand	secularism	are	foundational	principles.	Much	of	the	scholarly	discussion	of	the	topic	relates	to	Muslim	migrationand	integration	in	its	narrowest	sense.	While	such	studies	undoubtedly	have	value,	other	aspects	of	the	study	ofMuslims	remain	underexplored.	In	a	recent	study,	we	take	a	more	overarching	approach	and	relate	contentiouspolitics	surrounding	Muslims	in	France	to	various	components	of	the	public	and	policy	spheres.The	public’s	views	toward	MuslimsThere	has	always	been	an	extensive	and	visible	presence	of	Muslim	migrants	in	France.	Combined	with	the	secularnature	of	French	Republicanism,	this	has	given	rise	to	contentious	politics	surrounding	Muslims.	But	to	understandthis	phenomenon,	it	is	important	to	grasp	what	French	citizens	really	think	and	want	in	relation	to	this	issue.We	use	unique	data	from	the	Global	Public	Opinions	Project	and	rely	on	a	dyadic	ratios	algorithm	to	construct	thefirst	ever	aggregate-level	measure	of	how	citizens	feel	about	Muslims.	This	measure,	which	we	label	‘Muslimopinions’,	is	shown	in	Figure	1	below.	The	measure	ranges	from	support	(low	values)	to	opposition	(high	values)vis-à-vis	Muslims.Figure	1:	Views	toward	Muslims	in	France	(1988-2017)Note:	A	higher	value	in	the	figure	indicates	citizens	in	France	have	a	more	restrictive	view	toward	Muslims,	with	a	lower	value	indicating	citizens	have	a	moresupportive	opinion.	For	more	information,	see	the	authors’	accompanying	study.The	figure	illustrates	a	long-term	near-linear	decline	in	restrictive	opinions	toward	Muslims	amongst	French	citizens.This	might	be	surprising	considering	recent	scholarship	suggests	European	politics	has	been	undergoing	a	right-wing	shift	(a	so	called	droitisation),	particularly	in	relation	to	migration	issues.	Yet,	there	is	little	to	no	evidence	ofthis	in	our	research,	at	least	not	amongst	French	citizens	vis-à-vis	Muslims.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Contentious politics and policy congruence: How French society responds to Muslims Page 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-02-16Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/02/16/contentious-politics-and-policy-congruence-how-french-society-responds-to-muslims/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/In	fact,	we	observe	the	opposite	trajectory	in	France:	opinions	toward	Muslims	have	moved	in	tandem	with	some	ofthe	broader	social	progression	and	emancipation	processes	that	identify	many	contemporary	liberal	democracies.We	do	notice	some	signs	of	cyclicality,	as	well	as	two	noteworthy	episodes	where	opinions	became	morerestrictive,	namely	in	the	mid-	to	late	1990s	and	the	mid-	to	late	2000s.	The	latter	relates	to	a	series	of	Islamicterrorist	events	and	the	2005	French	riots,	respectively.	Neither	of	these	shocks,	however,	appear	to	have	had	alasting	effect.Muslim-related	policiesTwo	intertwined	components	of	the	political	sphere	reflect	the	above-mentioned	political	demands,	namely	claimsby	political	parties,	i.e.	how	parties	change,	and	policymaking.	Here,	we	focus	on	the	latter	and	use	our	own	data	toprovide	insights	into	the	actual	policy	environment	surrounding	Muslim-related	policies.	We	collected	a	uniqueseries	of	19	Muslim-related	policy	indicators	that	cover	the	period	from	1990	to	2017.	For	each	year,	we	thenconstruct	an	average	index	across	those	indicators	that	ranges	from	-1	(most	restrictive)	to	+1	(most	permissive).Figure	2	presents	the	evolution	of	the	aggregated	policy	indicators’	annual	averages.Figure	2:	Muslim-related	policies	in	France	(1990-2017)Note:	A	higher	value	in	the	figure	indicates	policies	in	France	have	become	more	permissive	toward	Muslims,	with	a	lower	value	indicating	policies	have	becomemore	restrictive.	For	more	information,	see	the	authors’	accompanying	study.Two	interesting	observations	stand	out.	First,	the	initial	period	covering	the	1990s	and	the	2000s	saw	Muslimsbecome	more	visible	in	the	policy	sphere,	with	governments	increasingly	recognising	Muslims.	While	the	policymeasure	reaches	a	more	neutral	position	(close	to	zero)	from	the	mid-2010s	onwards,	the	fact	it	remains	belowzero	highlights	that	policies	in	France	continue	to	be	somewhat	selective	in	the	opportunities	they	provide	forMuslims.Second,	the	aggregate	policy	measure	nearly	systematically	(and	linearly)	becomes	more	permissive	over	time.This	movement	towards	a	more	‘open’	policy	sphere	is	particularly	prevalent	since	the	mid-1990s.	Altogether,however,	this	does	not	mean	that	contentiousness	has	decreased.	Rather,	it	suggests	that	a	fairly	restrictive	policysphere	in	the	period	between	the	1980s	and	the	1990s	has	systematically	evolved	into	a	less	restrictive	one.Congruence	across	the	policy	and	public	spheresLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Contentious politics and policy congruence: How French society responds to Muslims Page 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-02-16Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/02/16/contentious-politics-and-policy-congruence-how-french-society-responds-to-muslims/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Having	considered	the	salience	of	Muslim-related	issues,	we	therefore	expect	ideological	congruence	betweencitizens	and	government	preferences	in	this	domain.	To	provide	a	more	detailed	analysis	of	this,	we	overlap	theprevious	opinion	and	policy	figures.For	comparative	purposes,	we	standardise	both	variables.	Additionally,	we	reverse	the	scale	of	Muslim	opinions	sothat	higher	values	indicate	more	support	for	Muslims.	Figure	3	illustrates	a	dialogue	of	sorts	between	the	movementtowards	a	less	restrictive	policy	sphere	and	less	restrictive	opinions	in	the	public	sphere	(pairwise	correlation	=0.84).	This	leads	us	to	believe	that,	concerning	the	contentious	politics	surrounding	Muslims	in	France,	whatcitizens	want	is	also	reflected	in	what	governments	do	(and	vice	versa).Figure	3:	Views	toward	Muslims	and	policies	toward	Muslims	in	France	(1988-2017)Note:	A	higher	value	in	the	figure	indicates	citizens	in	France	have	a	more	supportive	view	toward	Muslims	and	that	policies	toward	Muslims	are	more	permissive,with	a	lower	value	indicating	the	opposite.	The	vertical	lines	indicate	presidential	elections	in	France.	The	names	highlight	presidents.	Until	2002,	the	standard	termin	France	was	seven	years.	After	2002,	it	became	five	years.	For	more	information,	see	the	authors’	accompanying	study.While	we	do	not	find	perfect	congruence,	there	is	some	indication	that	an	increase	in	anti-Muslim	opinions	might	befavourable	for	right-wing	presidential	candidates	(Chirac	I	and	Sarkozy).	As	a	whole,	we	find	important	indications	ofcongruence	between	what	citizens	want	and	what	governments	give	them.	That	is,	policy	and	opinion	measuressuggest	that	citizens’	political	inputs	and	governments’	outputs	move	together	through	time.	This	is	exactly	what	wewould	expect	in	a	salient	domain	and	for	a	politicised	issue	such	as	the	politics	surrounding	Muslims.	Naturally,congruence	across	public	and	policy	spheres	is	not	perfect,	as	there	remains	a	certain	degree	of	imbalancebetween	policy	and	public	opinion.What	is	important	to	highlight	here	is	that	a	limited	degree	of	incongruence	is	not	necessarily	problematic,	for	twoimportant	reasons.	First,	there	are	other	actors	(e.g.	parties	and	interest	groups)	that	have	a	policy	impact.	Whilemost	democratic	systems	pursue	high	levels	of	congruence,	none	achieve	this	flawlessly	for	the	simple	reason	thatinterests	across	issues	are	often	conflicting	and	policy	may	operate	at	a	much	slower	pace	than	the	formation	ofpublic	opinion.	Second,	limited	levels	of	incongruence	are	not	necessarily	problematic	from	a	normativeperspective.	Only	structural	incongruence	can	be	problematic	for	the	implementation	of	democratic	principles	andoverall	democratic	functioning.	This	is	not	the	case	here.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Contentious politics and policy congruence: How French society responds to Muslims Page 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-02-16Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/02/16/contentious-politics-and-policy-congruence-how-french-society-responds-to-muslims/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Altogether,	our	findings	suggest	French	democracy	is	relatively	effective,	at	least	regarding	issues	related	toMuslims.	While	this	finding	is	in	line	with	theoretical	expectations	from	the	macro	polity	literature,	it	is	nonetheless	asurprising	observation	in	France	specifically.	That	is	to	say,	considering	the	Republican	and	secular	framework	thatunderpins	societal	and	political	developments	in	France,	we	would	expect	this	to	restrict	the	political	and	societaltranslation	of	any	phenomenon	that	challenges	it.	Yet,	under	these	circumstances,	we	nonetheless	find	high	levelsof	congruence	in	a	relatively	unfavourable	setting.	This	renders	us	hopeful	about	democratic	representation	and	thenormative	functioning	of	democracy,	even	in	a	contentious	field	and	a	relatively	disadvantageous	context.For	more	information,	see	the	authors’	accompanying	study	in	Ethnic	and	Racial	StudiesNote:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	authors,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics.	Featured	image	credit:	ShutterstockLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Contentious politics and policy congruence: How French society responds to Muslims Page 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-02-16Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/02/16/contentious-politics-and-policy-congruence-how-french-society-responds-to-muslims/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Contentious politics and policy congruence: how French society responds to Muslims

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Contentious politics and policy congruence: how French society responds to Muslims

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