There are some striking differences in how European leaders have explained the Covid-19 pandemic to their respective audiences. Drawing on a new study, Amrita Narlikar and Cecilia Emma Sottilotta show how these narratives reflect the policy responses that governments have pursued since the first wave of infections

Narlikar, Amrita

Sottilotta, Cecilia Emma

English

LSE Research Online

‘Pandemic	narratives’	are	key	to	understanding	thepolicy	responses	of	European	governments	to	Covid-19There	are	some	striking	differences	in	how	European	leaders	have	explained	the	Covid-19	pandemic	to	theirrespective	audiences.	Drawing	on	a	new	study,	Amrita	Narlikar	and	Cecilia	Emma	Sottilotta	show	how	thesenarratives	reflect	the	policy	responses	that	governments	have	pursued	since	the	first	wave	of	infections.The	Covid-19	pandemic	has	wreaked	human	and	economic	devastation	on	a	global	scale.	But	Europeangovernments	–	even	with	roughly	similar	political	structures,	cultures,	and	development	levels	–	have	reacted	verydifferently	to	this	existential	policy	challenge,	sometimes	with	life	and	death	consequences.	These	differences	inpolicy	responses	need	explaining,	and	a	key	to	understanding	them	may	lie	in	narratives.Robert	Shiller	defines	a	narrative	as	‘a	simple	story	or	easily	expressed	explanation	of	events	that	many	peoplewant	to	bring	up	in	conversation	or	on	news	or	social	media	because	it	can	be	used	to	stimulate	the	concerns	oremotions	of	others,	and/or	because	it	appears	to	advance	self-interest.’	Narratives	matter	because	they	help	shapethe	fears,	hopes,	and	expectations	of	people.	They	matter	especially	when	tough	choices	have	to	be	made,	forinstance	in	the	context	of	international	negotiations,	and	evidence	suggests	they	matter	more	than	data	per	se,especially	amidst	conditions	of	high	levels	of	uncertainty.The	pandemic	presents	such	a	case.	The	SARS-COV2	virus,	by	definition,	was	a	novel	virus.	Much	confusion	andconflicting	advice	surrounded	the	disease	in	the	first	months	of	2020.	In	this	context,	narratives	played	a	key	rolethat	the	literature	on	crisis	management	in	the	public	sector	defines	as	‘meaning	making’:	to	help	their	audienceunderstand	the	extent	of	the	challenge	to	be	tackled,	political	leaders	formulate	a	storyline	providing	a	convincingaccount	of	what	is	happening,	why	it	is	happening,	what	can/should	be	done	about	it,	how	and	by	whom.At	the	very	onset	of	the	pandemic,	some	European	leaders	immediately	voiced	strong	concerns	about	the	possibleeconomic	fallout	of	the	crisis,	some	did	not.	Similarly,	some	leaders	presented	the	threat	more	narrowly	as	adisease	that	would	affect	‘only’	certain	sub-groups	severely	rather	than	society	as	a	whole,	some	did	not.	Moreover,some	governments	introduced	early	and	stringent	restrictions,	others	did	not.The	relationship	between	narratives	and	policy	choicesIn	a	recent	study,	we	hypothesise	that	there	might	have	been	an	inverse	relationship	between	a	narrative	thatemphasised	the	economic	cost	of	the	pandemic	and	suggested	that	the	disease	was	a	threat	‘only’	to	certain	sub-groups	on	the	one	hand,	and	the	tendency	to	introduce	early	and	stringent	restrictions	on	the	other.To	test	our	hypotheses,	we	analysed	a	total	of	90	speeches	delivered	by	national	leaders	in	the	15	pre-2004	EUmember	states	(Austria,	Belgium,	Denmark,	Finland,	France,	Germany,	Greece,	Ireland,	Italy,	Luxemburg,Netherlands,	Portugal,	Spain,	Sweden,	and	the	UK)	in	February-April	2020.	We	relied	on	the	Oxford	COVID-19Government	Response	Tracker	(OxCGRT)	to	study	the	policy	response	and	classify	it	as	‘early	stringency’	or	not.We	used	the	variable	‘Econ’	to	describe	whether	or	not	heads	of	government	emphasised	the	economic	rather	thanthe	human	costs	of	the	pandemic,	for	instance	presenting	policy	decisions	as	informed	by	a	trade-off	betweenprotecting	public	health	via	restrictive	measures	and	‘saving	the	economy’.	The	value	‘1’	was	assigned	to	cases	inwhich	such	emphasis	was	present,	the	value	‘0’	when	it	was	absent.The	variable	‘Othering’	describes	whether	or	not	the	government	narrative	presented	the	threat	as	a	problem	thatwould	affect	‘only’	certain	sub-groups	severely	rather	than	society	as	a	whole.	The	value	‘1’	was	assigned	to	casesin	which	such	framing	was	present,	the	value	‘0’	when	it	was	absent.	We	also	included	a	control	variable	that	wedeemed	to	be	potentially	relevant:	whether	or	not	the	number	of	Intensive	Care	Unit	(ICU)	beds	was	above	averagein	the	countries	analysed	(see	Figure	1).	In	the	early	phase	of	the	emergency,	policy-makers	were	assessing	theircountries’	situation	not	only	through	the	absolute	number	and	growth	rate	of	total	cases,	but	also	via	the	country’sprovision	of	ICU	beds.	We	assumed	that	governments	that	had	high	ICU	bed	capacity	might	have	placed	lessemphasis	on	the	potential	human	costs	of	the	pandemic.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: ‘Pandemic narratives’ are key to understanding the policy responses of European governments toCovid-19Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2021-08-24Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/08/24/pandemic-narratives-are-key-to-understanding-the-policy-responses-of-european-governments-to-covid-19/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Figure	1:	Correlation	matrix	of	responses	to	Covid-19	in	European	countriesNote:	The	size	of	each	circle	indicates	the	extent	to	which	variables	are	correlated	(a	larger	circle	means	a	higher	level	of	correlation).	The	colour	of	the	circleindicates	whether	this	correlation	is	positive	or	negative.The	empirical	results	summarised	in	Figure	1	support	our	hypotheses.	As	the	correlation	matrix	shows,	both	‘Econ’and	‘Othering’	are	inversely	correlated	with	the	early	introduction	of	restrictions	to	contain	the	spread	of	the	virus(‘EarlyStr’).	In	other	words,	when	leaders	emphasised	economic	costs	in	their	narratives,	policy	responses	lackedearly	stringency.While	all	governments	involved	in	the	management	of	the	Covid-19	crisis	showed	awareness	of	the	deleteriouseconomic	consequences	that	the	pandemic	would	entail,	not	every	head	of	government	spelled	out	the	belief	thatthere	could	be	a	trade-off	between	protecting	public	health	and	avoiding	an	economic	downturn.	Leaders	such	asDutch	PM	Mark	Rutte	and	British	PM	Boris	Johnson	presented	the	human	cost	of	the	pandemic	as	inevitable,introducing	restrictions	relatively	late	compared	to	other	policy-makers	such	as	Finnish	PM	Sanna	Marin,	whopresented	the	economic	cost	of	the	pandemic	as	inevitable	instead	and	introduced	restrictive	measures	early	on.By	the	same	token,	the	responses	to	the	pandemic	lacked	early	stringency	when	governments	such	as	those	inFrance	and	Spain	presented	the	threat	more	narrowly,	suggesting	that	the	disease	would	affect	‘only’	certain	sub-groups	severely	(e.g.	the	elderly	and	the	vulnerable)	rather	than	society	as	a	whole.A	comparison	of	Sweden	and	GreeceThe	development	and	evolution	of	the	pandemic	narratives	and	policy	responses	can	be	better	appreciated	bytaking	a	closer	look	at	two	cases:	Sweden	and	Greece.	In	addition	to	being	comparable	in	terms	of	population	sizeand	share	of	urban	population,	they	both	defied	expectations	in	the	first	wave	of	infections	in	contrasting	ways.Months	into	the	pandemic,	Greece	had	been	presented	by	international	media	as	an	‘unlikely	success	story’,	whileSweden,	whose	health	system	is	characterised	by	large	financial	and	human	resources,	and	whose	‘moderate’approach	had	been	initially	praised	by	the	WHO,	ended	up	being	criticised	for	its	shortcomings.The	narrative	developed	by	the	Swedish	government	had	several	key	features.	First,	it	insisted	on	the	need	tointroduce	voluntary	measures	that	would	be	proportional	and	sustainable,	based	on	the	assumption	that	the	totalnumber	of	victims	at	the	end	of	the	pandemic	would	have	been	the	same	regardless	of	the	restrictions	imposed.Second,	it	placed	emphasis	on	the	need	to	isolate	‘at	risk	groups’	to	protect	them.	Third,	it	was	characterised	by	theprominent	role	of	technocratic,	administrative	authorities	in	guiding	government	action.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: ‘Pandemic narratives’ are key to understanding the policy responses of European governments toCovid-19Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2021-08-24Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/08/24/pandemic-narratives-are-key-to-understanding-the-policy-responses-of-european-governments-to-covid-19/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/In	contrast,	the	narrative	adopted	by	the	Greek	government	was	strikingly	different.	First,	it	framed	governmentaction	as	a	deliberate	choice	to	prioritise	human	lives	over	the	economy,	introducing	stringent	measures	intended	topreserve	public	health	until	a	vaccine	or	a	treatment	could	be	found.	Second,	it	insisted	on	the	need	to	protect	‘atrisk	groups’,	but	with	a	strong	emphasis	on	intergenerational	responsibility	of	the	youth	vis-à-vis	the	elderly,	whooften	live	in	the	same	household.	Finally,	the	narrative	was	characterised	by	a	high	level	of	personalisation,	with	theuse	of	an	emotional	register	and	comparisons	with	other	countries.ConclusionThe	results	of	our	study	shed	light	on	the	urgent	need	for	scientific	advisors	and	policy-makers	to	understand	theimportance	of	narratives	in	the	policy-making	process.	While	we	have	focused	on	the	early	phase	of	the	pandemic,we	believe	the	relevance	of	our	analysis	has	only	increased.	Governments	continue	to	muddle	along,	clusteringaround	the	spectra	we	identified,	and	people	continue	to	die	or	suffer	the	debilitating	effects	of	long	Covid.Some	uncertainties	have	indeed	been	resolved.	We	now	know,	for	instance,	that	the	disease	is	airborne.	But	newones	have	emerged,	chiefly	in	relation	to	the	effectiveness	of	vaccines	against	existing	and	potential	new	variants.Amidst	these	uncertainties,	if	governments	are	to	stand	a	chance	in	countering	vaccine	hesitancy,	resistance	tomasks,	and	preventing	needless	deaths,	their	leaders	would	do	well	to	pay	greater	attention	to	their	own	narratives.For	more	information,	see	the	authors’	accompanying	article	in	the	Journal	of	European	Public	PolicyNote:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	authors,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics.	Featured	image	credit:	European	CouncilLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: ‘Pandemic narratives’ are key to understanding the policy responses of European governments toCovid-19Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2021-08-24Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/08/24/pandemic-narratives-are-key-to-understanding-the-policy-responses-of-european-governments-to-covid-19/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Pandemic narratives are key to understanding the policy responses of European governments to Covid-19

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Pandemic narratives are key to understanding the policy responses of European governments to Covid-19

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