You might expect to find that people trust governments more when they release timely information about the pandemic. But Michele Crepaz (NUI Galway) and Gizem Arikan (Trinity College Dublin) find that a lot depends on people’s prior views of the government

Arikan, Gizem

Crepaz, Michele

English

LSE Research Online

COVID-19	dashboards	have	a	polarising	effect	onpublic	trustYou	might	expect	to	find	that	people	trust	governments	more	when	they	release	timely	information	about	thepandemic.	But	Michele	Crepaz	(NUI	Galway)	and	Gizem	Arikan	(Trinity	College	Dublin)	find	that	a	lot	dependson	people’s	prior	views	of	the	government.At	the	height	of	COVID’s	spread	in	Brazil	in	June	2020,	Jair	Bolsonaro’s	government	decided	to	stop	releasinginformation	about	the	daily	increases	in	case	numbers	and	deaths.	They	were	simply	wiped	off	the	official	website,prompting	widespread	disbelief	around	the	world.	Doctors,	medical	associations	and	state	authorities	mobilised	toattack	the	move,	labelling	it	‘authoritarian’	and	‘unethical’,	while	civil	society	groups	took	to	the	streets	to	protest.	OnCopacabana	beach	the	NGO	Rio	La	Paz	built	symbolic	shallow	graves.While	it	was	extreme,	Brazil’s	example	underlines	the	importance	of	information	disclosure	for	sustaining	legitimacyand	trust	in	governments	in	times	of	crisis.	The	typical	approach	to	the	study	of	trust	in	government	during	thepandemic	has	been	to	highlight	the	evaluation	of	crisis	management	policies.	However,	one	neglected	–	and	in	ouropinion,	relevant	–	perspective	has	been	that	of	information	disclosure	as	a	tool	in	crisis	management.As	early	as	April	2020,	most	European	and	Western	governments	established	COVID-19	dashboards.	Initiallydisplaying	only	the	number	of	cases	and	deaths,	they	soon	became	more	sophisticated,	with	breakdowns	bydemographics	and	location,	a	summary	of	the	daily	PCR	tests	performed	and	the	number	of	daily	hospitalisationsand	ICU	occupancy.	The	aim	was	to	provide	citizens,	journalists	and	other	stakeholders	with	information	about	howthe	state	was	performing	in	terms	of	crisis	management	and	to	reinforce	levels	of	support,	trust	and	legitimacyduring	the	height	of	the	crisis.But	whether	the	disclosure	of	detailed	information	about	the	pandemic	really	achieved	these	goals	remainsunknown.	Simply	looking	at	the	trends	in	information	disclosure	and	political	trust	across	countries	is	problematicbecause	it	is	impossible	to	disentangle	the	effects	of	information	disclosure	from	other	contextual	factors	thatinfluence	political	trust.	This	is	why	we	decided	to	study	the	effects	of	information	disclosure	in	COVID	dashboardson	political	trust	with	a	survey	experiment	conducted	in	the	Republic	of	Ireland	in	May	2020.	Our	findings	have	nowbeen	published	as	part	of	a	special	issue	on	COVID	in	The	Journal	of	Elections,	Public	Opinion	and	Parties.They	shed	light	on	the	complex	relationship	between	information	disclosure	and	political	trust.Photo:	Jack	Davis	via	a	CC-BY-SA	2.0	licenceLSE Covid 19 Blog: COVID-19 dashboards have a polarising effect on public trust Page 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-06-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/2021/06/30/covid-19-dashboards-have-a-polarising-effect-on-public-trust/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/For	our	study,	we	created	two	replicas	of	the	Irish	COVID-19	Datahub,	which	was	managed	by	the	Department	ofHealth	(DPH)	and	used	to	release	daily	official	updates	on	the	state	of	the	pandemic.	One	of	the	replicas	provideddetailed	(high)	information,	while	the	other	provided	the	limited	(low)	information	that	was	available	on	the	COVID-19	Datahub	at	the	time.	Respondents	were	randomly	assigned	to	view	the	high	or	the	low	information	version,	orview	nothing	(control	condition).	We	then	assessed	the	impact	of	viewing	the	high	or	low	information	dashboard	bycomparing	level	of	trust	among	respondents	in	the	high	and	low	versions	to	those	who	did	not	view	the	dashboard.Our	analysis	demonstrates	that	information	disclosure	has	no	direct	effects	on	willingness	to	trust	the	governmentin	matters	of	crisis	management	or	the	government’s	perceived	capability	to	resolve	the	crisis.	Neither	the	high	northe	low	information	condition	produced	a	statistically	significant	effect	on	the	respondents’	levels	of	political	trustcompared	to	respondents	in	the	control	group.	However,	we	find	differences	in	political	trust	across	groups,depending	on	respondents’	previous	level	of	trust	in	government	(in	particular	as	far	as	the	high	informationcondition	is	concerned).Figure	1	compares	the	high	information	condition	to	the	control	group	for	our	two	indicators	of	political	trust.	Itshows	that	information	disclosure	about	COVID	increases	political	trust	among	respondents	with	already	high	levelsof	trust.	This	accounts	for	an	increase	in	trust	of	10%,	keeping	all	other	factors	constant.	Among	respondents	withlow	levels	of	previous	trust,	information	disclosure	had	a	negative	effect,	accounting	for	a	6%	drop	in	political	trust(all	else	being	equal).	Overall,	Figure	1	shows	signs	of	polarisation,	whereby	information	disclosure	has	oppositeeffects	for	respondents	with	low	and	high	levels	of	previous	trust.	This	has	the	detrimental	effect	of	widening	thegap	in	levels	of	political	trust	between	the	two	groups.Figure	1	–	Predicted	marginal	effect	of	High	Information	condition	(vs	Control)	on	indices	of	political	trustwith	95%	confidence	intervals.	SourceLSE Covid 19 Blog: COVID-19 dashboards have a polarising effect on public trust Page 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-06-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/2021/06/30/covid-19-dashboards-have-a-polarising-effect-on-public-trust/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/Why	does	this	polarisation	occur?	We	argue	that	this	is	because	the	consumption	of	information	is	a	motivatedprocess,	with	individuals	seeking	to	find	–	in	the	disclosed	information	–	consistency	with	their	prior	beliefs.	This	iswhy	information	disclosure	produces	contrasting	effects,	depending	on	respondents’	prior	level	of	trust	ingovernment.	Individuals	with	high	levels	of	prior	trust	want	to	maintain	or	reinforce	existing	levels	of	political	trustwhen	processing	the	disclosed	information.	But	individuals	with	low	levels	of	prior	trust	react	negatively	to	disclosedinformation	with	a	consequent	drop	in	political	trust	(called	the	backfiring	effect	of	transparency)	in	political	trust.This	may	be	because,	in	an	effort	to	maintain	their	prior	beliefs	about	the	government’s	untrustworthiness,	theseindividuals	may	end	up	concluding	that	the	information	is	not	trustworthy	or	accurate,	or	may	focus	on	pieces	ofinformation	that	allow	them	to	produce	arguments	against	the	government’s	trustworthiness.LSE Covid 19 Blog: COVID-19 dashboards have a polarising effect on public trust Page 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-06-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/2021/06/30/covid-19-dashboards-have-a-polarising-effect-on-public-trust/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/These	findings	imply	that	in	their	efforts	to	gain	the	trust	and	confidence	of	citizens,	governments	may	run	the	risk	oftriggering	further	distrust	among	citizens	who	are	already	sceptical	of	their	actions.	However,	there	is	a	moreoptimistic	interpretation	of	these	findings.	Governments	can	capitalise	on	the	unusually	high	levels	of	trust	seen	atthe	beginning	of	the	crisis	by	providing	detailed	information	to	their	citizens.	The	‘rally-round-the	flag’	effectsobserved	in	many	European	countries	and	the	United	States	during	the	first	wave	of	COVID	might	have	beenpartially	sustained	by	their	governments’	decision	to	be	transparent	about	crisis	management	and	create	open	datatools	such	as	data	dashboards.This	post	represents	the	views	of	the	authors	and	not	those	of	the	COVID-19	blog,	nor	LSE.LSE Covid 19 Blog: COVID-19 dashboards have a polarising effect on public trust Page 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2021-06-30Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/2021/06/30/covid-19-dashboards-have-a-polarising-effect-on-public-trust/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/

COVID-19 dashboards have a polarising effect on public trust

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/111102/1/covid19_2021_06_30_covid_19_dashboards_have_a_polarising_effect_on.pdf

COVID-19 dashboards have a polarising effect on public trust

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

LSE Research Online