Sweden is facing a political crisis after the country’s Prime Minister, Stefan Löfven, lost a vote of no confidence on 21 June. Magnus Blomgren writes that with few obvious solutions, a new election is the most probable outcome

Blomgren, Magnus

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Sweden’s	political	crisis:	How	we	got	here	and	what’snextSweden	is	facing	a	political	crisis	after	the	country’s	Prime	Minister,	Stefan	Löfven,	lost	a	vote	of	no	confidence	on21	June.	Magnus	Blomgren	writes	that	with	few	obvious	solutions,	a	new	election	is	the	most	probable	outcome.		Historically,	Sweden	is	known	for	its	stable	parliamentary	system	–	even	though	the	country’s	constitutional	designindicates	otherwise.	Sweden’s	‘negative	parliamentarism’	and	numerous	minority	governments	might	appear	at	firstglance	to	be	a	recipe	for	regular	political	crises.	However,	this	has	not	been	the	case,	and	very	few	Swedishgovernments	have	failed	to	serve	their	full	term.There	was	therefore	widespread	surprise	in	international	media	when	Sweden’s	Prime	Minister,	Stefan	Löfven	ofthe	Swedish	Social	Democratic	Party,	lost	a	vote	of	no	confidence	on	21	June.	Indeed,	this	was	the	first	time	thishas	ever	happened	in	Swedish	politics.	The	country	is	now	left	facing	a	period	of	political	turbulence	which	has	noobvious	solution.The	roots	of	the	crisisThe	balance	between	the	left	and	right	in	Swedish	politics	has	shifted	fundamentally	over	the	last	ten	years,	as	inmany	other	European	countries.	This	has	largely	been	the	result	of	a	swing	to	the	right	among	the	electorate	andthe	entry	of	the	radical	right	Sweden	Democrats	into	parliament	in	2010.The	Sweden	Democrats,	who	articulate	a	clear	anti-immigration	platform	and	have	their	historical	roots	in	theSwedish	extreme-right,	have	since	become	the	centre	of	the	country’s	political	debate.	Following	the	last	Swedishgeneral	election	in	2018,	when	the	party	finished	in	third	place,	this	has	been	accentuated	even	further.In	the	2018	election	campaign,	all	of	the	other	main	political	parties	promised	not	to	negotiate	with	the	SwedenDemocrats.	This	made	the	government	formation	process	extremely	complicated	given	the	number	of	seats	won	bythe	party.	After	134	days,	a	minority	government	was	formed	by	the	Social	Democrats	and	the	Green	Party.A	fundamental	condition	for	the	new	minority	government	was	the	so-called	‘January	agreement’	between	theSocial	Democrats,	the	Green	Party,	the	Liberals,	and	the	Centre	Party.	The	Liberals	and	the	Centre	Party	signed	upto	this	agreement	to	avoid	the	Sweden	Democrats	being	included	in	any	form	of	government.	The	price	was	that	theformer	centre-right	alliance	between	the	Moderate	Party,	Centre	Party,	Liberals,	and	Christian	Democrats,	whichhad	governed	Sweden	between	2006	and	2014,	was	torn	apart.	While	the	Liberals	and	Centre	Party	signed	thenew	agreement,	the	Moderate	Party	and	the	Christian	Democrats	remained	in	opposition.To	make	things	even	more	complex,	passive	support	from	the	Liberals	and	the	Centre	Party	was	not	enough	for	thenew	government.	It	also	needed	support	from	the	Left	Party,	which	was	not	invited	to	the	negotiations	over	theJanuary	agreement.	Indeed,	in	the	agreement	it	is	clearly	stated	that	the	Left	Party	shall	be	denied	any	kind	ofpolitical	influence	during	the	entire	parliamentary	period.	This	aspect	of	the	agreement,	which	was	later	termed	the‘humiliation	clause’,	presented	obvious	challenges	for	the	Left	Party.	More	problematic	still	was	that	the	agreementalso	listed	several	liberal	reforms	that	contrast	sharply	with	the	Left	Party’s	position.Still,	the	party	accepted	the	new	government	since	all	other	alternatives	would	have	been	worse.	At	the	same	time,the	Left	Party	drew	the	line	at	two	reforms	listed	in	the	agreement.	The	first	concerns	(in	short)	specific	rules	on	thelabour	market	and	the	second	concerns	reforms	to	Sweden’s	rental	market.	The	party	clearly	indicated	that	if	thegovernment	attempted	to	implement	these	reforms	it	would	withdraw	its	support.This	is	what	led	to	the	current	crisis.	In	accordance	with	the	agreement,	the	government	pushed	for	legislation	thatwould	reduce	the	power	of	the	Swedish	tenants’	association	(Hyresgästföreningen)	to	negotiate	the	rent	of	tenantsin	newly	built	properties.	For	critics	of	the	reform,	this	legislation	would	lead	to	an	increase	in	rent	for	millions	oftenants	and	strengthen	the	power	of	landlords	during	rent	negotiations.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Sweden’s political crisis: How we got here and what’s next Page 1 of 2		Date originally posted: 2021-07-02Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/07/02/swedens-political-crisis-how-we-got-here-and-whats-next/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Consequently,	the	Left	Party	issued	an	ultimatum:	abandon	the	proposal	or	the	party	would	withdraw	its	support	forthe	government.	A	game	of	‘chicken’	followed,	and	it	is	safe	to	say	the	government	did	not	expect	the	Left	Partywould	ultimately	vote	against	the	government	together	with	the	right-wing	conservative	parties.	Yet,	this	is	exactlywhat	happened.What	next?After	the	vote	of	no	confidence,	the	Prime	Minister	had	two	options:	either	to	resign	and	let	the	speaker	of	theparliament	start	a	process	to	identify	a	new	Prime	Minister,	or	to	call	a	new	election.	He	went	for	the	first	option.One	important	reason	is	that	even	if	a	snap	election	were	to	be	held	in	Sweden,	an	ordinary	election	would	still	bescheduled	for	September	2022.	To	arrange	two	national	elections	within	a	year	is	not	an	attractive	proposition	forany	party.	At	the	same	time,	this	might	still	be	where	Sweden	ends	up.	The	speaker	has	four	chances	to	propose	anew	Prime	Minister	and	if	none	of	these	candidates	are	tolerated	by	the	parliament,	a	new	election	willautomatically	be	called.Currently,	the	speaker	of	the	parliament	is	trying	to	see	if	any	party	can	adjust	its	position	and	thereby	enable	a	newgovernment	to	be	formed.	However,	the	prospects	of	succeeding	in	this	effort	appear	marginal	at	best.	Since	the2018	election	and	the	signing	of	the	January	agreement,	the	positions	of	the	parties	have	changed	dramatically.The	Liberal	Party	has	decided	it	will	not	accept	the	continuation	of	a	social	democratic	government	and	supports	aright-wing	conservative	alternative.	The	problem	is	that	such	a	right-wing	government	would	need	support	from	theSweden	Democrats.	Despite	their	previous	promise	to	voters	not	to	negotiate	with	the	Sweden	Democrats,	theModerate	Party,	Christian	Democrats,	and	the	Liberal	Party	have	altered	their	positions.	During	this	parliamentaryterm,	a	new	conservative	right-wing	‘bloc’	has	effectively	been	formed	in	the	parliament,	with	a	far	more	criticalstance	on	migration	and	a	harsher	approach	to	law	and	order	(among	other	things).	This	is	a	distinctly	newapproach	for	Swedish	politics.The	other	party	in	the	former	right-wing	alliance,	the	Centre	Party,	has	maintained	its	critical	view	toward	theSweden	Democrats	and	still	argues	that	it	will	not	tolerate	a	government	based	on	its	support.	At	the	same	time,	theCentre	Party	does	not	want	any	form	of	cooperation	with	the	Left	Party.	This	means	that	there	is	not	enoughsupport	for	a	government	on	the	left	side	of	the	political	spectrum.	In	other	words,	there	is	currently	no	obviousgovernment	alternative	if	none	of	the	key	parties	change	their	positions.This	situation	makes	a	new	election	the	most	probable	outcome.	Yet,	since	this	is	not	the	most	preferable	result	forany	of	the	parties,	it	is	possible	that	some	kind	of	temporary	peace	or	compromise	might	be	negotiated,	at	leastuntil	the	next	ordinary	election	in	September	2022.	Either	way,	voters	will	soon	have	their	say	on	the	fundamentallynew	political	situation	that	now	exists	in	Sweden.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics.	Featured	image	credit:	European	CouncilLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Sweden’s political crisis: How we got here and what’s next Page 2 of 2		Date originally posted: 2021-07-02Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/07/02/swedens-political-crisis-how-we-got-here-and-whats-next/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Sweden’s political crisis: how we got here and what’s next

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Sweden’s political crisis: how we got here and what’s next

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