Once thought of as a battleground state, Florida now leans Republican in presidential elections. Kevin Fahey takes a close look at county-by-county results and trends in the 2020 election in the Sunshine State and finds that given the Republican Party’s growing appeal in rural areas, there is no further deep well of Democratic voters for Joe Biden to turnout. Winning [...

Fahey, Kevin

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LSE Research Online

What	Happened?:	Florida	has	already	sounded	a	2024warning	for	Joe	BidenOnce	thought	of	as	a	battleground	state,	Florida	now	leans	Republican	in	presidential	elections.	KevinFahey	takes	a	close	look	at	county-by-county	results	and	trends	in	the	2020	election	in	the	SunshineState	and	finds	that	given	the	Republican	Party’s	growing	appeal	in	rural	areas,	there	is	no	furtherdeep	well	of	Democratic	voters	for	Joe	Biden	to	turnout.	Winning	the	state	in	2024	may	therefore	bean	uphill	battle	for	Biden,	in	an	election	which	may	well	prove	to	be	much	closer	than	2020’s.	Following	the	2020	US	General	Election,	our	mini-series, ‘What	Happened?’,	explores	aspects	of	elections	atthe	presidential,	Senate,	House	of	Representative	and	state	levels,	and	also	reflects	on	what	the	electionresults	will	mean	for	US	politics	moving	forward.	If	you	are	interested	in	contributing,	please	contact	RobLedger	(ledger@em.uni-frankfurt.de)	or	Peter	Finn	(finn@kingston.ac.uk).The	state	of	Florida	has	undergone	a	remarkable	transformation	in	the	past	twenty	years.	From	being	the	closestbattleground	in	2000	(with	only	537	votes	deciding	the	election)	to	the	8th-most	competitive	state	and	only	one	ofeight	states	to	swing	towards	former	President	Donald	Trump	in	the	2020	election,	Florida	is	no	longer	a	criticalbattleground	state	for	Democrats.	This	may	present	challenges	for	President	Joseph	Biden	in	the	2024	elections,where	control	of	the	White	House	may	hinge	on	winning	Florida.President	Biden	has	a	number	of	structural	disadvantages	for	his	current	306-232	electoral	vote	lead.	First,redistricting	will	likely	mean	Biden	loses	5	electoral	votes	in	2024	if	all	states	vote	the	same	as	they	did	in	2020.Second,	Biden’s	leads	in	Arizona	and	Georgia	are	small	enough	that	if	those	states’	legislatures	adopt	newer,restrictive	voting	rules,	he	would	quite	possibly	lose	those	two	states,	meaning	his	expected	electoral	vote	victory	in2024	would	be	only	273	to	265.	Without	being	able	to	seriously	contest	Florida,	North	Carolina,	or	Ohio,	Bidenwould	have	to	play	defense	and	hold	all	of	Pennsylvania,	Michigan,	and	Wisconsin	in	order	to	retain	thePresidency.	Florida’s	rightward	shift	under	Trump	therefore	makes	Biden’s	path	quite	perilous.Like	many	states,	Florida	appears	to	be	polarizing	along	urban-rural	lines;	in	the	2020	election,	Biden	won	only	12of	the	state’s	67	counties	and	still	received	47.8	percent	of	the	vote.	Figure	1	below	is	an	interactive	graphic,showing	the	Democrats’	share	of	the	presidential	vote,	county-by-county,	from	2000-2020.	With	the	exception	of	theMiami	region,	Florida’s	urban	centers	(Jacksonville,	Orlando,	Tampa,	Gainesville,	Tallahassee,	and	Pensacola)have	all	become	bluer	since	2000,	2004,	2008,	and	even	2012.	By	contrast,	rural	areas	have	swung	sharply	towardRepublicans.	But	the	Republican	trend	in	South	Florida’s	urban	counties	pose	the	largest	concern	for	Democratswho	want	to	win	the	state’s	30	or	31	electoral	votes.Figure	1	–	Democrats’	share	of	the	presidential	vote	by	Florida	county,	from	2000-2020USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: Florida has already sounded a 2024 warning for Joe Biden Page 1 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-02-18Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/02/18/what-happened-florida-has-already-sounded-a-2024-warning-for-joe-biden/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Annual	vote	swings	in	presidential	vote	shown	in	Figure	2	below	highlight	how	Miami,	Broward,	and	Palm	Beach	(inred)	are	alone	among	major	urban	counties	in	having	swung	towards	Trump	in	both	2016	and	2020,	while	all	othermajor	urban	counties	(Brevard,	Duval,	Escambia,	Hillsborough,	Lee,	Orange,	Pinellas,	and	Polk	in	blue)	in	swingingtowards	Democrats.Figure	2	–	Country	trend	by	year	in	Florida	elections,	2000-2020USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: Florida has already sounded a 2024 warning for Joe Biden Page 2 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-02-18Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/02/18/what-happened-florida-has-already-sounded-a-2024-warning-for-joe-biden/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/The	swing	towards	Trump	in	the	2020	election	is	most	obvious	in	heavily	Latino	Miami-Dade	County.	The	swing	inMiami-Dade	made	up	almost	half	of	Biden’s	statewide	deficit,	and	fewer	voters	there	selected	the	Democratic	ticketin	2020,	despite	an	increase	of	800,000	Democratic	votes	statewide.	However,	if	you	compare	Biden’s	performancein	Miami-Dade	to	John	Kerry’s	performance	in	2004	or	Al	Gore’s	in	2000,	the	story	appears	to	be	one	of	reversionto	the	mean.Figure	3	–	County	swing,	Florida	2016-2020	and	2004-2020USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: Florida has already sounded a 2024 warning for Joe Biden Page 3 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-02-18Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/02/18/what-happened-florida-has-already-sounded-a-2024-warning-for-joe-biden/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Instead,	it	appears	that	nearby	Palm	Beach	county	is	becoming	more	Republican.	Had	Biden	matched	John	Kerry’s2004	result	there,	his	statewide	deficit	would	have	declined	by	70,000	votes.	Broward	County’s	decline	is	lesssevere	but	is	consistent	with	trends	in	the	rest	of	South	Florida.	In	both	counties,	these	trends	predate	Trump,signaling	that	the	composition	of	those	counties	will	last	into	2024.As	a	consequence,	Biden	will	need	to	improve	dramatically	in	other	parts	of	the	state.	In	particular,	Democrats	willneed	to	broaden	their	appeal	beyond	the	major	cities	in	order	to	win	Florida.	Biden	won	51.8	percent	of	the	votefrom	the	fifteen-most	populous	counties,	but	(assuming	all	other	counties’	votes	remained	unchanged),	needed	55percent	of	the	vote	from	those	counties	to	win	the	state.“Welcome	To	Florida	Sign”	by	DonkeyHotey	is	licensed	under	CC	BY	2.0USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: Florida has already sounded a 2024 warning for Joe Biden Page 4 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-02-18Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/02/18/what-happened-florida-has-already-sounded-a-2024-warning-for-joe-biden/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Unfortunately,	it	is	difficult	to	imagine	how	Democrats	can	improve	upon	their	2020	performance	in	the	state.	In	22counties,	Biden’s	Florida	vote	exceeded	the	number	of	registered	Democrats	in	the	county,	and	in	a	further	13counties	his	vote	exceeded	90	percent	of	the	number	of	registered	Democrats.	While	rural	areas	in	Florida	are	notgrowing	as	quickly	as	urban	areas,	the	growth	of	heavily-Republican	counties	such	as	Sumter	County,	and	thepotential	to	convert	and	turn	out	the	remaining	Dixiecrats	in	the	state,	means	Republican	candidates	will	be	able	toeasily	build	on	their	turnout	successes	in	2016	and	2020.	Biden	has	no	such	“deep	well”	of	voters	in	Florida.Figure	4	–	2020	Democratic	vote	and	Democratic	registration	in	Florida	countiesInstead,	Biden	may	have	to	appeal	to	former	Trump	voters,	but	recent	Gallup	polling	shows	that	Biden’s	approvalamong	Republicans	is	at	11	percent,	the	lowest	level	of	opposition-party	support	for	a	new	President	going	back	toEisenhower.	It	is	unclear,	at	least	to	me,	how	Biden’s	support	grows.	Perhaps	the	rebound	in	the	economy,associated	with	massive	stimulus	plans,	improves	his	standing	with	Trump	voters,	although	a	large	academicliterature	suggests	that	voters	evaluate	economic	conditions	through	a	partisan	lens.President	Biden’s	current	coalition	–	which	was	very	similar	to	Hillary	Clinton’s	2016	coalition	–	may	not	be	enoughto	hold	onto	the	White	House	in	2024	without	substantially	broadening	his	support	in	states	like	Florida.	Yet	withoutreversing	Republican	trends	in	South	Florida	and	reducing	the	margin	of	loss	in	rural	parts	of	the	state,	Biden	maybe	another	one-term	President.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	USAPP	–	American	Politics	and	Policy,	norof	the	London	School	of	Economics.	Shortened	URL	for	this	post:	https://bit.ly/2Zulj1KAbout	the	authorKevin	Fahey	–	Swansea	UniversityKevin	Fahey	is	a	Lecturer	in	Politics	in	the	Department	of	Political	&	Cultural	Studies	at	SwanseaUniversity.	He	studies	study	political	institutions	and	elite	behavior,	with	specialization	in	subnationalpolitics.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: Florida has already sounded a 2024 warning for Joe Biden Page 5 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-02-18Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/02/18/what-happened-florida-has-already-sounded-a-2024-warning-for-joe-biden/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: What Happened?: Florida has already sounded a 2024 warning for Joe Biden Page 6 of 6		Date originally posted: 2021-02-18Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/02/18/what-happened-florida-has-already-sounded-a-2024-warning-for-joe-biden/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/

What happened?: Florida has already sounded a 2024 warning for Joe Biden

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What happened?: Florida has already sounded a 2024 warning for Joe Biden

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