Many Americans have already begun voting in the 2020 election, not just for president, but for down-ballot races, such as for the US Senate. Chris Cooper looks at the race for North Carolina’s US Senate seat, writing that despite an early durable lead for Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham, accusations of an extra-marital affair have given incumbent Republican Senator, Thom Tillis, an opportunity to disrupt his opponent’s lead

Cooper, Christopher A.

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LSE Research Online

North	Carolina’s	close	Senate	race	is	a	puzzle	in	apurple	stateMany	Americans	have	already	begun	voting	in	the	2020	election,	not	just	for	president,	but	for	down-ballot	races,	such	as	for	the	US	Senate.	Chris	Cooper	looks	at	the	race	for	North	Carolina’s	USSenate	seat,	writing	that	despite	an	early	durable	lead	for	Democratic	challenger,	Cal	Cunningham,accusations	of	an	extra-marital	affair	have	given	incumbent	Republican	Senator,	Thom	Tillis,	anopportunity	to	disrupt	his	opponent’s	lead.“This	is—without	a	doubt—the	most	important	Senate	race	in	the	nation.—	North	Carolina	Republican	party	email	blast.	August	28,	2020.North	Carolina	is	a	hard	state	to	figure	out.	From	one	perspective	it	looks	positively	Republican.	After	all,	theGeneral	Assembly	has	a	reputation	for	passing	some	of	the	most	conservative	policies	in	the	country,	and	its	USHouse	delegation	includes	10	Republicans	and	only	three	Democrats.	From	another	perspective,	it	looks	like	aDemocratic	stronghold.	Registered	Democrats	outnumber	registered	Republicans,	Democratic	Governor	RoyCooper	was	such	a	thorn	in	President	Trump’s	side	that	Trump	was	forced	to	cancel	the	Republican	NationalConvention	in	Charlotte	earlier	this	year,	and	the	state	has	only	had	one	Republican	Attorney	General	in	the	lasthundred	years.If	figuring	out	North	Carolina	politics	is	akin	to	solving	a	puzzle,	then	predicting	the	outcome	of	the	US	Senate	racein	North	Carolina	is	like	trying	to	solve	a	Rubik’s	cube	after	polishing	off	six	beers	from	one	of	North	Carolina’s	333craft	breweries.	Just	when	things	began	to	seem	a	little	clearer	in	this	race,	two	news	stories	have	thrown	a	wrenchin	any	thoughts	that	the	race	might	be	somewhat	predictable.A	Brief	History	of	the	SeatFrom	1901-1972	Democrats	held	North	Carolina’s	Class	II	Senate	seat	without	interruption.	This	was,	of	course,common	for	the	United	States	South	at	the	time,	which	was	then	dominated	by	the	Democratic	Party.	In	1972,however,	the	Democratic	orthodoxy	in	North	Carolina	began	to	crack	as	Richard	Nixon	took	North	Carolina’s	13electoral	votes	and	staunch	conservative	Jesse	Helms	wrestled	the	Senate	seat	from	Democratic	control,	bestingcongressional	veteran	Nick	Galifinakis	(uncle	of	actor	Zach	Galifinakis)	by	eight	percentage	points.Helms	held	the	seat	from	his	election	in	1972	through	his	retirement	in	2002.	Immediately	after	his	retirement,	theseat	was	filled	by	Republican	Elizabeth	Dole.	Dole	served	just	one	term	and	was	unseated	by	Democrat	Kay	Haganin	2008.	Hagan,	too,	only	was	unable	to	secure	re-election,	losing	in	2014	to	Republican	Thom	Tillis.	As	Figure	1suggests,	Tillis	winning	the	2014	election	wasn’t	a	foregone	conclusion,	however.	In	fact,	it	was	the	closest	result	inrecent	North	Carolina	Senate	history.Figure	1	–	North	Carolina	Class	II	Senate	Seat	Election	Results	1972-2014USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: North Carolina’s close Senate race is a puzzle in a purple state Page 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-10-21Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/10/21/north-carolinas-close-senate-race-is-a-puzzle-in-a-purple-state/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Enter	2020Given	the	discordant	recent	history	of	the	NC	Class	II	Senate	seat,	Thom	Tillis	must	have	known	that	his	re-electionwas	a	long	way	from	guaranteed.	Leading	up	to	the	election,	Tillis	was,	at	least	according	to	one	measure,	thesecond	least	popular	Class	II	US	Senator	in	the	country.	Despite	some	early	signs	of	trouble,	he	secured	his	party’snomination	easily,	securing	78	percent	of	the	vote	and	besting	two	primary	opponents.The	Democratic	nomination	process	was	somewhat	more	in	question.	Frontrunner	and	former	member	of	NorthCarolina’s	General	Assembly	Cal	Cunningham	faced	State	Senator	Erica	Smith.	Although	Cunningham	won	thenomination,	Smith	garnered	a	respectable	35	percent	of	the	vote	and	won	almost	a	fifth	of	North	Carolina’s	100counties.A	Small,	but	Durable	Lead	As	the	General	Election	campaign	between	Cunningham	and	Tillis	kicked	off,	it	became	a	marquee	national	racealmost	immediately	and	was	often	listed,	along	with	Maine,	Iowa,	and	Arizona,	as	one	of	the	“core	four”	senateraces	that	are	most	likely	to	determine	control	of	the	hotly	contested	United	States	Senate	(currently	theRepublicans	hold	53	seats).USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: North Carolina’s close Senate race is a puzzle in a purple state Page 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-10-21Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/10/21/north-carolinas-close-senate-race-is-a-puzzle-in-a-purple-state/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/“Welcome	to	North	Carolina”	by	Taber	Andrew	Bain	is	licensed	under	CC-BY-2.0Although	it	was	generally	considered	a	close	race,	Cunningham	had	a	small	but	durable	lead	in	most	polls.Following	the	primary	through	to	the	end	of	September,	the	average	poll	showed	a	Cunningham	lead	of	about	4.4percentage	points	with	85	percent	of	the	polls	in	that	period	showing	a	Cunningham	lead.	Cunningham’sastronomical	fundraising	numbers	also	cast	the	race	as	close,	but	the	Democrat	as	the	leader.A	Change	to	the	Orthodoxy?This	month	has	welcomed	an	October	surprise	to	the	race	that	could	upset	the	growing	orthodoxy	that	Cunninghamwas	likely	to	unseat	Tillis.	The	first	weekend	in	October	saw	a	series	of	stories	indicating	that	Cunningham	hadengaged	in	an	extra-marital	affair.	At	the	same	time,	Thom	Tillis	was	diagnosed	with	COVID-19.	While	the	newscycle	about	Tillis’	diagnosis	came	and	went	fairly	quickly,	the	stories	about	Cunningham’s	affair	continued	as	heseemed	to	avoid	public	appearances.	The	newspapers	of	the	state	capitol	(Raleigh)	and	the	largest	city	(Charlotte)published	an	editorial	titled	simply,	“Explain	Yourself,	Cal	Cunningham”	where	they	urged	the	challenger	to	“standup	and	be	accountable.”A	series	of	polls	released	soon	after	the	scandal	broke	demonstrated	that	despite	the	revelations	and	the	media’spush	to	be	more	open,	Cunningham’s	lead	remained	virtually	unchanged.	Although	his	lead	was	stable,	the	resultsof	these	polls	did	not	come	without	bad	news	for	Cunningham.	While	they	expressed	the	desire	to	vote	for	him,voters	increasingly	viewed	Cunningham	in	less	favorable	terms	than	they	had	before	the	scandal	broke.	Thom	Tillisattempted	to	capitalize	on	this	October	surprise,	running	a	series	of	ads	about	Cunningham’s	affair	and	calling	intoquestion	his	fitness	for	office.Looking	ForwardGiven	North	Carolina’s	status	as	neither	red	nor	blue	but	rather	solidly	purple,	no	statewide	race	in	North	Carolina	isa	lock	for	either	party.	The	state’s	Senate	race	is	no	different.	The	small	lead	that	Cunningham	enjoyed	throughSeptember	appears	to	still	be	durable—at	least	in	terms	of	public	opinion	polling,	although	Thom	Tillis	continues	toattempt	to	disrupt	that	lead	in	every	way	possible.	As	we	enter	the	final	stretch	of	the	campaign,	when	more	thanone	million	voters	have	already	cast	their	vote,	questions	abound	about	whether	Cunningham	can	defend	his	leadagainst	Tillis’	accusations	and	increasingly	negative	campaigning.	For	his	part,	Cunningham’s	strategy	is	clear:focus	attention	on	policy	issues,	and	limit	his	exposure.	It’s	too	early	to	know	which	strategy	will	be	the	mosteffective,	but	it’s	not	a	stretch	to	say	that	whoever	prevails	will	have	provided	the	key	victory	in	determining	controlof	the	United	States	Senate.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.			USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: North Carolina’s close Senate race is a puzzle in a purple state Page 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-10-21Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/10/21/north-carolinas-close-senate-race-is-a-puzzle-in-a-purple-state/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	USAPP	–	American	Politics	and	Policy,	northe	London	School	of	Economics.	Shortened	URL	for	this	post:	https://bit.ly/35hToowAbout	the	authorChristopher	A.	Cooper	–	Western	Carolina	UniversityChristopher	A.	Cooper	is	Robert	Lee	Madison	Distinguished	Professor	and	Department	Head	in	theDepartment	of	Political	Science	and	Public	Affairs	at	Western	Carolina	University.	His	researchfocuses	on	state	and	local	politics,	North	Carolina	politics,	southern	politics	and	elections	in	the	UnitedStates.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: North Carolina’s close Senate race is a puzzle in a purple state Page 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-10-21Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/10/21/north-carolinas-close-senate-race-is-a-puzzle-in-a-purple-state/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/

North Carolina’s close senate race is a puzzle in a purple state

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North Carolina’s close senate race is a puzzle in a purple state

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