If he is defeated on Election Day, a lame-duck President Trump could wreak havoc during the eleven weeks before inauguration day write Jeremi Suri and Jeffrey K. Tulis

Suri, Jeremi

Tulis, Jeffrey

English

LSE Research Online

How	a	lame-duck	Trump	could	imperil	the	UnitedStates,	and	what	Congress	can	do	to	stop	him.If	he	is	defeated	on	Election	Day,	a	lame-duck	President	Trump	could	wreak	havocduring	the	eleven	weeks	before	inauguration	day	write	Jeremi	Suri	and	Jeffrey	K.Tulis.	Political	opponents	of	President	Donald	Trump	are	rightly	worried	that	he	will	notconcede	defeat	but	will	use	the	period	between	Election	Day	and	the	meeting	of	theElectoral	College	on	December	14	to	subvert	the	counting	of	ballots,	resorting	to	intensive	litigation	toremain	in	power.	The	president	has	reportedly	said	as	much	himself,	and	some	of	his	surrogates	have	been	frankabout	the	strategy.Trump’s	opponents	have	responded	to	this	likelihood	by	calling	for	as	large	a	Democratic	victory	as	possible.	Thebigger	the	margin	of	a	Biden	victory,	the	reasoning	goes,	the	less	feasible	Trump’s	strategy	will	prove.	Bill	Kristolrecently	sketched	the	long-term	significance	of	different	magnitudes	of	victory,	with	FDR’s	in	1932	as	an	example	ofone	so	massive	that	the	election	would	transform	the	policy	and	partisan	trajectory	of	the	nation.We	cannot	be	certain	that	Trump	will	lose	on	Election	Day,	or	that	Biden’s	victory	will	be	definitive,	but	we	mustbegin	now	to	consider	what	problems	would	attend	a	Biden	win.Kristol’s	example	of	a	definitive	victory	for	FDR	over	Herbert	Hoover	shows	that	we	may	soon	have	anothersignificant	problem	as	serious	as	Trump’s	efforts	to	thwart	the	legitimate	transfer	of	power.There	was	no	question	that	Herbert	Hoover	would	leave	office	after	his	electoral	defeat.	He	did	not	challenge	thevote	tally	or	FDR’s	victory.	But	Hoover	was	so	committed	to	a	vision	of	the	public	interest	at	odds	with	that	of	hisopponent	that,	during	the	interregnum,	he	sought	to	advance	it	and	to	thwart	the	policy	designs	of	the	incomingadministration	with	every	tool	in	his	constitutional	arsenal.	This	is	one	of	the	main	reasons	the	inauguration	wasmoved	from	March	4	to	January	20—so	that	there	would	still	be	enough	time	for	an	orderly	transition,	but	less	timefor	preemptive	subversion	of	the	democratic	will	of	the	people.	If	someone	as	public-spirited	as	Herbert	Hoovercould	be	so	dangerously	anti-democratic	in	his	use	of	constitutional	authority,	imagine	what	a	president	with	nocommitment	to	the	common	good	might	do.	The	legitimate	transfer	of	power	remains	a	serious	problem,	but	theillegitimate	use	of	constitutional	authority	after	electoral	defeat	now	looms	as	the	nation’s	most	serious	danger.Lessons	from	Herbert	Hoover	about	the	damage	an	outgoing	president	can	causeTo	understand	the	peril	that	the	nation	faces	from	the	current	president—a	man	whose	office	grants	him	enormousconstitutional	authority	and	yet	who	possesses	no	coherent	conception	of	government	and	little	actual	concern	forthe	public	good	over	his	own	personal	interests—let	us	review	what	Herbert	Hoover	did	in	those	transition	monthsin	1932-33.During	another	era	of	widespread	suffering	and	despair,	an	incumbent	president,	who	was	also	a	self-proclaimedeconomic	genius,	lost	his	bid	for	re-election.	On	November	8,	1932,	Americans	decisively	rejected	Herbert	Hoover’sleadership;	he	lost	the	popular	vote	by	17	percent	and	the	Electoral	College	by	472	to	59.	Franklin	Roosevelt	wonan	overwhelming	victory,	promising	hope	and	government	assistance	for	those	in	need.	Hoover	was	soundlydefeated	because	he	appeared	uncaring,	mean-spirited,	and	out-of-touch	with	the	vast	majority	of	voters.	Hoover’sefforts	to	frighten	voters	about	his	opponent’s	alleged	socialism—“the	witch’s	caldron	which	boiled	in	Russia”—hadclearly	failed.Despite	his	defeat,	Hoover	was	unrepentant,	and	doubled	down	on	the	very	actions	that	voters	had	rejected.	Heused	the	long	period	between	the	election	and	the	March	4	inauguration	to	sow	discord,	undermine	the	economy,and	constrain	his	successor’s	options.	Hoover	even	pressured	Roosevelt	to	abandon	his	campaign	promises	andsign	on	to	his	own	failed	policies.	The	challenges	of	the	Hoover-Roosevelt	transition	are	a	historical	warning	aboutthe	dangers	of	the	eleven	weeks	between	tomorrow’s	election	and	the	next	inauguration	day,	when	a	defeated	andunrepentant	Donald	Trump	continues	to	occupy	the	presidency	of	the	United	States.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: How a lame-duck Trump could imperil the United States, and what Congress can do to stop him. Page 1 of 5		Date originally posted: 2020-11-03Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/11/03/how-a-lame-duck-trump-could-imperil-the-united-states-and-what-congress-can-do-to-stop-him/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Like	Trump,	Hoover	felt	unconstrained	by	popular	opinion.	He	believed	that	his	critics	had	lied	to	the	public	anddistorted	the	facts.	Roosevelt’s	promised	New	Deal	would	undermine	the	sound	basis	of	the	American	economy,	asHoover	understood	it,	and	he	would	do	everything	to	prevent	the	newly	elected	president	from	carrying	it	out.Hoover	began	by	telling	his	fellow	Republicans	and	foreign	allies	that	he	would	remain	uncompromising	in	his	lastmonths,	even	on	the	moderate	reforms	the	Democrats	sought	around	currency	devaluation	and	assistance	forbanks	and	local	communities.	Even	after	the	voting	was	done,	Hoover	continued	his	campaign	to	undermine	publicconfidence	in	his	successor’s	relief	program.Hoover	even	tried	to	blame	the	worsening	of	the	Depression	on	Roosevelt,	claiming	that	the	president-elect	hadexaggerated	the	suffering	in	the	country	and	discouraged	a	rapid	recovery.	Time	and	again,	Hoover	demanded	thatRoosevelt	embrace	his	longstanding	commitment	to	low	inflation,	low	taxes,	and	balanced	budgets.	Prospects	ofprofligate	spending,	high	taxation,	and	currency	devaluation,	Hoover	claimed,	were	the	real	source	of	continueddeclines	in	industrial	production	and	consumer	confidence.	Hoover’s	closest	advisers	told	him	this	was	untrue,	buthe	continued	to	push	this	story	into	early	1933.When	American	banks	began	to	fail	because	they	could	not	recoup	bad	loans	and	cover	their	depositors,	thecountry	entered	a	truly	desperate	situation,	made	worse	by	Hoover’s	continued	refusal	to	take	action.	By	February1933,	the	entire	American	credit	system	was	in	freefall	and	the	Federal	Reserve	asked	President	Hoover	to	declarea	bank	holiday	to	preserve	reserves	and	restore	some	public	confidence.	Hoover	appealed	to	the	president-elect,demanding	that	Roosevelt	endorse	the	bank	holiday	and	Hoover’s	larger	economic	program.	Without	a	compromiseon	policy	aims	to	accommodate	Hoover’s	economic	orthodoxy,	he	would	not	save	the	banks,	and	he	threatened	toblame	Roosevelt	for	their	failure.Hoover’s	coercive	efforts	continued	as	late	as	the	night	before	Roosevelt’s	inauguration.	Even	in	the	last	hours	ofhis	presidency,	he	demanded	an	agreement	from	Roosevelt	before	he	took	any	action	to	help	the	banks.	WhenRoosevelt	refused	to	tie	his	own	hands,	the	outgoing	president	allowed	the	economy	to	continue	its	tumble.By	the	time	Roosevelt	declared	a	bank	holiday,	on	March	6,	more	banks	around	the	country	had	collapsed	andadditional	Americans	had	lost	their	savings.	For	almost	a	decade,	the	American	economy	remained	mired	in	highunemployment,	low	production,	and	widespread	poverty—conditions	made	much	worse	by	Hoover’s	stubbornrefusal	to	act	after	his	electoral	defeat.	His	last	months	as	a	lame-duck	president	left	enduring	scars.Photo	by	Charles	Deluvio	on	UnsplashUSApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: How a lame-duck Trump could imperil the United States, and what Congress can do to stop him. Page 2 of 5		Date originally posted: 2020-11-03Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/11/03/how-a-lame-duck-trump-could-imperil-the-united-states-and-what-congress-can-do-to-stop-him/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/The	Twentieth	Amendment,	ratified	in	1933,	moved	the	presidential	inauguration	to	January	20,	where	it	remains.But	that	still	leaves	more	than	two	months	between	the	election	of	the	next	president	and	the	departure	of	hispredecessor.	A	defeated	but	unrepentant	and	manipulative	president,	like	Hoover,	can	use	this	interregnum	to	tryand	constrain	his	successor,	pursue	an	agenda	rejected	by	the	public,	and	harm	American	society	in	lasting	ways.Even	without	the	cooperation	of	the	lame-duck	Congress	or	the	incoming	Congress	(set	by	the	TwentiethAmendment	to	start	on	January	3),	the	outgoing	president	retains	enormous	power.	And	with	a	president	devoted	tohis	own	personal	interests	above	all,	the	interregnum	allows	countless	opportunities	for	corruption—including	favorsto	family	and	friends,	attacks	on	enemies,	and	the	procurement	of	payments	for	secrets	and	other	resourcescontrolled	by	the	executive.	The	time	between	election	and	inauguration	is	a	window	for	bad	behavior	and	long-termdamage	to	the	republic.We	can	expect	that	a	defeated	President	Trump,	financially	and	legally	desperate,	will	exploit	this	window	for	fullvalue	to	himself,	notwithstanding	the	harm	to	the	country.	He	will	likely	try	to	pardon	his	friends,	and	perhaps	evenhis	family	and	himself,	from	legal	prosecution.	He	may	expand	his	criminal	activities.	He	will	likely	lash	out	at	hisenemies,	including	by	the	use	of	foreign-authored	disinformation,	and	take	actions	to	enrich	his	loyalists.	Mostdangerous,	he	may	make	deals	with	foreign	leaders	in	return	for	personal	favors	and	ego	boosts.	Above	all,	we	canbe	sure	that	he	will	not	use	his	last	days	in	power	to	serve	the	country.	Trump’s	final	presidential	actions	will	likelyincrease	American	division,	worsening	the	suffering	from	COVID-19	and	increasing	our	nation’s	vulnerability	toforeign	aggression.How	a	lame-duck	Trump	might	be	curtailedSo,	if	Donald	Trump	is	defeated,	what	can	be	done	to	blunt	this	looming	danger?The	first	and	most	important	tool	in	the	constitutional	arsenal	for	the	victors	in	this	election	is	civic	education.	Ourfirst	plea	would	be	that	officeholders,	journalists,	scholars,	and	citizens	generally	turn	their	attention	from	the	issueof	transfer	of	power—of	literally	getting	Trump	out	of	the	White	House	on	January	20—to	ways	of	countering	anti-constitutional	behavior	between	now	and	the	inauguration.	The	nation	has	never	faced	this	particular	threat	soclearly	before,	and	the	best	resource	we	have	is	the	collective	wisdom	of	all	those	who	have	thought	of	useful	andcreative	ways	to	insure	a	legal	and	orderly	transition	of	power.	The	enormously	powerful	energies	of	our	citizensmobilized	to	vote	must	now	turn	to	the	task	of	protecting	the	Constitution.	Voting	was	only	the	first	step;	popularattention	should	not	stray	from	the	continued	goal	of	restraining	a	dangerous	president,	still	in	office	for	two	moremonths.Second,	Speaker	Nancy	Pelosi;	Chuck	Schumer,	very	possibly	the	next	Senate	majority	leader;	and	President-electJoe	Biden	must	assemble	a	bipartisan	coalition	for	emergency	government.	Normally,	the	president-elect	would	bebuilding	a	transition	team	that	would	work	relatively	cooperatively	with	the	existing	political	appointees	throughoutthe	government.	A	normal	transition	cannot	be	taken	for	granted.	Democrats	must	reach	out	to	congressionaladversaries	to	reestablish	the	power	of	the	first	branch,	the	legislature,	to	superintend	the	executive	branch.Between	the	election	and	the	first	week	of	January	that	would	mean	that	Democrats	should	reach	out	to	defeatedcongressional	Republicans	as	well	as	those	who	have	retained	their	seats.	With	nothing	left	to	lose,	defeatedRepublicans	would	be	in	a	position	to	help	resist	Trump’s	anti-constitutional	and	illegal	actions	as	they	occur.	Theycan	back	oversight	hearings	with	teeth.	They	can	remember	that	their	oath	was	to	the	Constitution,	not	theirdefeated	party.There	is	some	reason	for	hope,	already,	that	cooperation	between	the	Democrats	and	Republicans	in	Congressmay	be	possible.	Quietly,	transition	preparation	is	already	underway,	with	political	appointees	as	well	as	careerofficials	hard	at	work	on	it.	The	existing	statute	for	transitions	is,	thus	far,	being	followed	by	the	Trumpadministration,	including	a	mandated	council	of	political	appointees	chaired	by	the	White	House	chief	of	staff.Donald	Trump’s	disruptive	campaign	rhetoric	has	not	been	reflected	in	the	actions	of	political	and	career	officialsresponsible	for	the	transition.	But	it	is	also	possible	that	Trump	does	not	actually	know	that	a	normal	transition	isunderway,	given	his	distaste	for	briefings	and	for	the	routine	duties	of	governance,	and	his	failure	to	attend	to	newsbeyond	the	commentary	of	his	favorite	sycophants.Congressional	damage	controlUSApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: How a lame-duck Trump could imperil the United States, and what Congress can do to stop him. Page 3 of 5		Date originally posted: 2020-11-03Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/11/03/how-a-lame-duck-trump-could-imperil-the-united-states-and-what-congress-can-do-to-stop-him/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Faced	with	an	actual	loss,	Trump’s	behavior	will	be	unpredictable,	as	it	has	been	with	managing	the	pandemic.Pelosi,	Schumer,	and	other	leaders	need	to	prepare	themselves	and	the	American	people	for	a	disruptive	transitionand	for	unprecedented	actions	by	the	president	that	fall	outside	the	purview	of	standard	transition	matters.Traditionally,	the	transition	teams	prepare	briefing	books	on	the	ongoing	activities	of	the	array	of	governmentalinstitutions.	It	is	quite	possible	that	these	normal	and	needed	aspects	of	transition	might	proceed	while	DonaldTrump	focuses	on	openings	to	enrich	himself	and	his	family,	ways	to	punish	perceived	political	enemies,	andgeneral	opportunities	to	abuse	the	constitutional	power	he	holds	during	the	interregnum.	This	is	why	politicaloversight	and	immediate	accountability	are	so	vital.If	Senate	Majority	Leader	Mitch	McConnell	refuses	to	cooperate	and	continues	to	enable	Trump,	potentiallyresponsible	Republicans—senators	who	see	themselves	as	responsible—such	as	Susan	Collins,	Lisa	Murkowski,Mitt	Romney,	and	Ben	Sasse,	should	form	a	temporary	Independent	GOP	caucus	that	would	vote	with	theDemocrats	to	remove	Mitch	McConnell	as	majority	leader	during	the	remainder	of	the	lame-duck	session	and	thusexpedite	the	transition.On	the	House	side,	if	Speaker	Pelosi	finds	it	impossible	to	form	an	emergency	government	coalition	with	asignificant	number	of	her	Republican	colleagues	and	ideally	the	GOP	House	leadership,	she	should	create	aspecial	bipartisan	impeachment	inquiry.	The	point	of	this	committee	would	be	to	unlock	the	powers	of	impeachmentto	compel	testimony	and	documents	for	as	robust	oversight	as	possible.	The	committee	should	revive	thecongressional	power	of	inherent	contempt—with	which	executive	branch	officials	who	fail	to	respond	to	subpoenasare	taken	into	custody	by	the	Congress’s	own	law	enforcement,	quickly	tried	in	the	House,	and	held	in	the	D.C.jail	until	they	are	willing	to	comply.The	House	and	Senate	should	use	their	appropriations	powers	to	deny	funds	to	agencies	of	the	government	actingfor	the	personal	protection	or	financial	benefit	of	Donald	Trump	when	budget	negotiations	begin	again	after	theelection	due	to	the	pending	expiration	of	the	continuing	resolution	funding	the	government	now.	Special	focusshould	be	on	the	Justice	Department	and	the	Department	Homeland	Security,	where	partisan	leadership	hasmisused	resources	to	attack	protesters	and	presidential	critics	while	protecting	presidential	loyalists	and	dangerousright-wing	extremists.	Congress	must	use	its	power	of	the	purse	to	starve	dangerous	appointees	who	continue	toact	as	Trump’s	henchmen.A	bipartisan	resolution	should	be	passed	that	instructs	the	government	to	cooperate	with	the	incomingadministration—and	in	particular,	to	invite	the	president-elect	to	designate	members	of	the	Trump	administration	tobrief	him	on	the	pandemic	crisis	and	to	inform	the	American	people	regularly	on	federal	efforts	to	contain	its	spread.Perhaps	none	of	this	will	be	necessary.	Maybe	Trump	will	again	confound	the	pollsters	and	win	the	election.	Ormaybe	he	will	lose	and	will	show	an	uncharacteristic	quietude.	But	now	is	the	time	to	think	seriously	aboutcountering	his	potential	malfeasance	during	an	interregnum.	Congressional	leaders	must	show	a	willingness	to	stepin	and	control	a	defeated	Trump	before	he	does	more	damage.	That	is	the	clear	will	of	the	American	people,	andthe	obvious	constitutional	duty	for	elected	officials,	including	those	at	the	end	of	their	current	service.Deference	to	a	dangerous,	defeated	president	in	these	circumstances	would	not	only	be	cowardly,	but	wouldthreaten	a	constitutional	transition	of	power.	The	losers	do	not	get	to	burn	down	the	government	before	they	leave.Trump	must	be	highly	constrained	in	this	interregnum,	by	Congress,	the	courts,	the	civil	service,	and	theexpectations	of	the	American	people.A	version	of	this	article	first	appeared	at	The	Bulwark.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.	Note:		This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	USApp–	American	Politics	and	Policy,	nor	ofthe	London	School	of	Economics.Shortened	URL	for	this	post:	https://bit.ly/32rg9WvAbout	the	authors	USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: How a lame-duck Trump could imperil the United States, and what Congress can do to stop him. Page 4 of 5		Date originally posted: 2020-11-03Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/11/03/how-a-lame-duck-trump-could-imperil-the-united-states-and-what-congress-can-do-to-stop-him/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Jeremi	Suri	–	University	of	Texas	at	AustinJeremi	Suri	is	a	professor	of	public	affairs	and	history	at	the	University	of	Texas	at	Austin,	and	theauthor,	most	recently,	of	The	Impossible	Presidency:	The	Rise	and	Fall	of	America’s	HighestOffice	and	the	host	of	a	weekly	podcast,	This	is	Democracy.			Jeffrey	K.	Tulis	–	University	of	Texas	at	AustinJeffrey	K.	Tulis	is	a	professor	of	government	at	the	University	of	Texas	at	Austin	and	the	author	of	TheRhetorical	Presidency	and	the	co-author	of	Legacies	of	Losing	in	American	Politics.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: How a lame-duck Trump could imperil the United States, and what Congress can do to stop him. Page 5 of 5		Date originally posted: 2020-11-03Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/11/03/how-a-lame-duck-trump-could-imperil-the-united-states-and-what-congress-can-do-to-stop-him/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/

How a lame-duck Trump could imperil the United States, and what Congress can do to stop him.

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How a lame-duck Trump could imperil the United States, and what Congress can do to stop him.

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