While the US presidential primary race is all but over, primary elections for down ballot races continue. Christopher A. Cooper takes a close look at the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District

Cooper, Christopher A.

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Mark	Meadows’	departure	has	opened	the	door	for	aunique	Republican	runoff	election	in	North	Carolina’s11th	District.While	the	US	presidential	primary	race	is	all	but	over,	primary	elections	for	down	ballot	races	continue.Christopher	A.	Cooper	takes	a	close	look	at	the	Republican	primary	for	North	Carolina’s	11thCongressional	District.	He	writes	that	the	departure	of	former	Representative	Mark	Meadows	to	bePresident	Trump’s	Chief	of	Staff	has	led	to	an	unusual	race	to	replace	him,	with	a	second	primary	nowunderway	which	is	being	fought	between	two	candidates	with	very	similar	policy	profiles.	More	than	two	months	after	North	Carolina	held	its	March	2020	presidential	primary,	the	mostinteresting	primary	battle	in	the	state,	and	one	of	the	most	interesting	in	the	country,	continues	to	rage.	NorthCarolina’s	11th	congressional	district,	located	in	the	far	Western	corner	of	the	state	which	lacks	any	large	cities,	hadbeen	the	friendly	home	to	Republican	incumbent	Mark	Meadows	since	2012.	Despite	recent	redistricting	that	madethe	11th	slightly	more	competitive,	Meadows	was	expected	to	once	again	skate	easily	to	re-election,	until	he	joltedthe	district	and	the	country	to	attention,	resigning	his	seat	last	December	to	become	Chief	of	Staff	to	PresidentTrump.	The	resulting	battle	to	replace	Meadows	is	still	under	way	and	what	happens	may	tell	us	a	lot	about	theshape	of	the	country	and	the	way	elections	are	run	moving	forward.The	TimingThe	intrigue	surrounding	the	11th	congressional	district	primary	surrounded	not	just	the	incumbent’s	resignation,	butthe	timing	of	his	resignation.	Mark	Meadows	announced	his	retirement	from	the	US	House	of	Representatives	onThursday,	December	19,	at	5:33	AM—30	hours	and	27	minutes	before	the	deadline	to	file	for	the	seat,	and	threedays	after	the	deadline	for	candidates	who	had	already	declared	for	another	race	to	withdraw	and	run	in	the	11th.Whether	intentional	or	not,	the	timing	of	this	decision	effectively	locked	out	experienced	politicians	and	created	achaotic	environment	with	no	clear	favorite	and	considerable	confusion.Hours	after	Meadows’	crack	of	dawn	announcement,	Democrats	and	Republicans	alike	raced	to	declare	theircandidacy,	although	one	candidate,	Lynda	Bennett	appeared	to	have	a	head-start.	Bennett	had	never	served	inelective	office	before,	but	was	active	in	Republican	Party	politics	and,	perhaps	most	importantly,	was	a	close	friendof	Mark	Meadows	and	his	wife	Debbie	Meadows.	While	other	candidates	claimed	to	have	no	advance	knowledge	ofMeadows’	decision,	Bennett	was	ready	with	a	press	release	announcing	her	candidacy	the	morning	of	Meadows’declaration.	Meadows	himself	did	little	to	quell	the	suspicions	that	he	had	tipped	Bennett	off	when	he	endorsedBennett	over	the	candidacy	of	his	former	staff-member	Wayne	King	and	multi-term	state	senator	Jim	Davis.The	First	Primary	By	the	time	the	dust	settled,	the	field	included	12	Republicans,	5	Democrats,	and	2	third	party	candidates,	making	itthe	third	largest	field	of	any	congressional	race	in	the	country.	The	Democratic	field	favored	Moe	Davis,	a	retired	AirForce	Colonel,	Judge,	and	Prosecutor	at	Guantanamo	Bay.	After	the	votes	were	tallied,	Davis	won	handily	with	47percent	of	the	vote	(the	next	highest	vote	getter	garnered	23	percent).USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: Mark Meadows’ departure has opened the door for a unique Republican runoff election in North Carolina’s 11thDistrict.Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-06-18Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/06/18/mark-meadows-departure-has-opened-the-door-for-a-unique-republican-runoff-election-in-north-carolinas-11th-district/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/“Welcome	to	North	Carolina”	by	Taber	Andrew	Bain	is	licensed	under	CC	BY	2.0The	Republican	results,	however,	were	messier.	Lynda	Bennett	received	the	most	votes,	but	was	shy	of	the	30percent	of	the	vote	required	to	avoid	a	runoff	(or	a	2nd	primary,	in	the	language	of	North	Carolina	election	law).While	most	observers	had	expected	a	runoff,	the	second-place	candidate	was	indeed	a	surprise.	MadisonCawthorn,	a	24-year-old	political	novice	from	Henderson	County	earned	20.4	percent	of	the	vote,	barely	edging	outState	Senator	Jim	Davis	and	setting	up	a	second	primary	between	Cawthorn	and	Bennett.	Their	geographicdistribution	of	votes	was	also	noteworthy.	While	Cawthorn	only	won	three	counties,	his	victories	were	clustered	nearhis	home	in	Henderson	County,	and	included	Buncombe	County,	the	most	populous	county	in	the	district.	Incontrast,	Bennett	won	her	home	county	of	Haywood	as	well	as	5	less	populous	counties.	The	remainder	of	thecounties	in	the	district	were	won	by	Jim	Davis	or	Wayne	King,	the	Meadows	staffer.		The	Second	Primary	The	second	primary	(rescheduled	from	May	12	to	June	23	because	of	concerns	around	COVID-19),	sets	up	aninteresting	race	between	Bennett	and	Cawthorn.	Both	candidates	hold	similar	policy	opinions—both	haveexpressed	their	support	for	2nd	Amendments	Rights,	for	Donald	Trump,	and	their	suspicions	of	Democratic	politics.Their	differences,	therefore,	are	largely	stylistic	and	a	result	of	their	very	different	personal	profiles.	Bennett	hastouted	her	business	experience	and	prominent	endorsements,	which	have	come	from	high-profile	conservativesincluding	not	only	Meadows	but	also	Texas	Senator	Ted	Cruz,	House	Freedom	Caucus	Chairman	Jim	Jordan	and,most	recently	President	Trump	himself.	She	has	largely	avoided	local	media	appearances	and	opted	not	toparticipate	in	a	candidate	forum.	While	Cawthorn	has	appeared	on	Fox	News,	he	has	focused	his	appeal	locally,critiquing	the	very	D.C.	connections	that	Bennett	touts	and	arguing	that	his	youth	makes	him	better	able	to	reachyounger	voters.	Both	candidates	have	raised	several	hundred	thousand	dollars,	although	Cawthorn	has	raised	andspent	more	than	his	opponent.The	race	is	noteworthy,	not	only	because	of	the	stylistic	contrasts	between	the	candidates	and	the	lineage	of	theseat,	but	also	because	of	what	it	suggests	about	how	campaigns	may	be	run	in	the	time	of	COVID-19	and	what	itsays	about	the	potential	of	mail-in	voting.	North	Carolina	election	law	does	not	provide	for	true	mail-in	voting,	butdoes	provide	for	no-excuse	absentee	balloting,	where	any	registered	voter	can	request	a	mail-in	ballot	and	returnthat	ballot	by	Election	Day.	At	the	time	of	this	writing,	there	were	three	times	as	many	mail-in	votes	cast	as	therewere	the	same	number	of	days	before	the	first	primary.	This	increase	in	mail-in-voting	over	the	first	primary	isparticularly	telling,	as	turnout	in	the	second	primary	is	expected	to	trail	far	behind	the	first	primary.The	Lessons	USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: Mark Meadows’ departure has opened the door for a unique Republican runoff election in North Carolina’s 11thDistrict.Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-06-18Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/06/18/mark-meadows-departure-has-opened-the-door-for-a-unique-republican-runoff-election-in-north-carolinas-11th-district/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/In	the	end,	the	results	of	this	primary	will	tell	us	a	great	deal	not	only	about	the	future	of	this	district,	but	also	aboutthe	dynamics	of	primary	politics,	the	importance	of	election	rules	regarding	runoff	elections,	and	the	potentialincrease	in	mail-in	voting	that	may	come	as	a	result	of	COVID-19.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.					Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	USAPP	–	American	Politics	and	Policy,	northe	London	School	of	Economics.	Shortened	URL	for	this	post:	https://bit.ly/3hDc6w1About	the	authorChristopher	A.	Cooper	–	Western	Carolina	UniversityChristopher	A.	Cooper	is	Robert	Lee	Madison	Distinguished	Professor	and	Department	Head	in	theDepartment	of	Political	Science	and	Public	Affairs	at	Western	Carolina	University.	His	researchfocuses	on	state	and	local	politics,	North	Carolina	politics,	southern	politics	and	elections	in	the	UnitedStates.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: Mark Meadows’ departure has opened the door for a unique Republican runoff election in North Carolina’s 11thDistrict.Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-06-18Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/06/18/mark-meadows-departure-has-opened-the-door-for-a-unique-republican-runoff-election-in-north-carolinas-11th-district/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/

Mark Meadows’ departure has opened the door for a unique Republican runoff election in North Carolina's 11th district

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Mark Meadows’ departure has opened the door for a unique Republican runoff election in North Carolina's 11th district

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