Is there a link between population density and COVID-19 spread and severity in the United States? Felipe Carozzi, Sandro Provenzano and Sefi Roth (Centre for Economic Performance, LSE) found denser locations were more likely to have an early outbreak, but do not necessarily suffer more in the longer run

Carozzi, Felipe

Provenzano, Sandro

Roth, Sefi

English

LSE Research Online

COVID-19:	cities	get	hit	first,	but	do	not	necessarilyget	hit	harderIs	there	a	link	between	population	density	and	COVID-19	spread	and	severity	in	the	United	States?	Felipe	Carozzi,Sandro	Provenzano	and	Sefi	Roth	(Centre	for	Economic	Performance,	LSE)	found	denser	locations	were	morelikely	to	have	an	early	outbreak,	but	do	not	necessarily	suffer	more	in	the	longer	run.Urban	areas	are	often	places	of	intense	social	interactions,	crowded	living	and	close	contact.	Whether	Justinian’sConstantinople,	fourteenth	century	Florence	or	1918	Philadelphia,	cities	have	historically	been	associated	with	thepropagation	of	infectious	disease.	In	the	first	wave	of	the	COVID-19	global	pandemic,	large,	dense	urban	areasaround	the	world	such	as	New	York,	Madrid	and	London	were	identified	as	disease	hotspots.	Increased	awarenessof	the	risks	of	present	and	future	epidemics	has	understandably	prompted	a	debate	about	the	future	of	cities.	Doesdensity	–	the	defining	feature	of	cities	–	promote	the	spread	of	the	disease?	Will	this	affect	the	long-run	outlook	ofurban	areas?Workers	sanitise	the	New	York	subway	in	March	2020.	Photo:	Metropolitan	TransportationAuthority	via	a	CC	BY	2.0	licenceOur	analysis	of	the	onset	of	the	COVID-19	pandemic	in	the	United	States	raises	a	series	of	important	pointsregarding	these	questions.	First,	density	is	associated	with	an	early	arrival	of	COVID-19,	so	that	urban	cores	andsuperstar	cities	get	a	head	start	on	the	spread	of	the	disease.	Second,	the	subsequent	spread	–	once	COVID-19has	arrived	–	is	not	faster	or	deadlier	than	in	smaller	towns	or	sparsely	populated	peripheries.	Cities	get	hit	first,	butdo	not	necessarily	get	hit	harder.	Third,	several	mechanisms	may	explain	these	findings.	Large	cities	are	intenselyinter-connected	with	other	locations,	which	can	explain	early	onset.	Yet,	in	the	case	of	within-city	spread,	manydifferent	offsetting	forces	may	be	at	play.	Crowding	may	promote	the	spread	of	the	disease	but	differences	inprecautionary	measures,	access	to	healthcare	and	demographics	may	contain	it.	As	a	result,	it	is	important	todistinguish	differences	in	spread	between	and	within	locations.This	paper	is	based	on	reported	patterns	for	the	spread	and	severity	of	the	disease	in	the	US	in	the	first	half	of	theyear.	Therefore,	drawing	definitive	conclusions	of	long-term	impacts	across	urban	systems	is	hardly	warranted.	Yet,our	results	may	be	useful	for	understanding	and	predicting	the	dynamics	of	future	waves	of	viral	disease	outbreakacross	urban	areas.	As	such,	our	findings	may	help	policy	makers	to	better	plan	and	execute	measures	to	containoutbreaks.	Lastly,	by	showing	that	the	time-adjusted	number	of	COVID-19	related	deaths	appears	not	to	beaffected	by	density,	we	also	cast	doubts	on	hasty	predictions	on	the	consequences	of	dense	urban	living	on	thespread	and	severity	of	the	disease.LSE Covid 19 Blog: COVID-19: cities get hit first, but do not necessarily get hit harder Page 1 of 2		Date originally posted: 2020-08-19Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/2020/08/19/covid-19-cities-get-hit-first-but-do-not-necessarily-get-hit-harder/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/This	post	is	an	extract	from	CEP	Discussion	Paper	No	1711:	Urban	Density	and	COVID,	by	Felipe	Carozzi,	SandroProvenzano	and	Sefi	Roth.	It	represents	the	views	of	the	authors	and	not	those	of	the	COVID-19	blog,	nor	LSE.LSE Covid 19 Blog: COVID-19: cities get hit first, but do not necessarily get hit harder Page 2 of 2		Date originally posted: 2020-08-19Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/2020/08/19/covid-19-cities-get-hit-first-but-do-not-necessarily-get-hit-harder/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/

Covid-19: cities get hit first, but do not necessarily get hit harder

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/106334/1/covid19_2020_08_19_covid_19_cities_get_hit_first_but_do_not.pdf

Covid-19: cities get hit first, but do not necessarily get hit harder

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