The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major shifts and changes to this election year’s political schedule, among them the Republican National Committee’s decision to shift the party’s presidential nominating convention from Charlotte, North Carolina, to Jacksonville, Florida. Kevin Fahey writes that President Trump has been the driving force behind this change, and that he believes that moving the convention will bolster his chances in Florida, avoid #BlackLivesMatter protests, and provide a red- carpet spectacle for his voting base

Fahey, Kevin

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Primary	Primers:	Moving	the	Republican	conventionis	all	about	Trump’s	ego	–	not	his	reelectionThe	COVID-19	pandemic	has	caused	major	shifts	and	changes	to	this	election	year’s	politicalschedule,	among	them	the	Republican	National	Committee’s	decision	to	shift	the	party’s	presidentialnominating	convention	from	Charlotte,	North	Carolina,	to	Jacksonville,	Florida.	Kevin	Fahey	writesthat	President	Trump	has	been	the	driving	force	behind	this	change,	and	that	he	believes	that	movingthe	convention	will	bolster	his	chances	in	Florida,	avoid	#BlackLivesMatter	protests,	and	provide	a	red-carpet	spectacle	for	his	voting	base.	This	article	is	part	of	our	Primary	Primers	series	curated	by	Rob	Ledger	(Frankfurt	Goethe	University)	andPeter	Finn	(Kingston	University).	Ahead	of	the	2020	election,	this	series	explores	key	themes,	ideas,concepts,	procedures	and	events	that	shape,	affect	and	define	the	US	presidential	primary	process.	If	you	areinterested	in	contributing	to	the	series	contact	Rob	Ledger	(ledger@em.uni-frankfurt.de)	or	Peter	Finn(p.finn@kingston.ac.uk).The	novel	coronavirus	has	killed	more	than120,000	Americans	(as	I	write	this,	coronavirus	cases	are	increasing	in30	US	states	and	Puerto	Rico)	and	infected	millions	more.	US	gross	domestic	product	(GDP)	contracted	by	4.8percentage	points	in	the	first	quarter	of	2020,	with	a	forecast	from	Deloitte	showing	that	GDP	is	expected	to	fall	by	acumulative	17	percentage	points	by	the	end	of	the	second	quarter	of	2020.	The	killing	of	George	Floyd	by	a	policeofficer	in	late	May	has	led	to	sustained	social	unrest	and	civil	disobedience	not	seen	in	the	United	States	indecades.	There	is	deep	cynicism	amongst	the	electorate	as	pride	in,	and	satisfaction	with,	the	United	States	hasdeclined	substantially	in	recent	months.	At	the	same	time,	President	Trump	now	finds	himself	facing	extraordinarily-long	re-election	odds:Figure	1	–	US	National	polls,	March	–	June	2020Credit:	538In	the	face	of	these	unprecedented	political	headwinds,	Trump	has	found	himself	engaged	in	the	minutiae	of	aseemingly	mundane	task:	moving	elements	of	the	Republican	National	Committee’s	four	yearly	presidentialnominating	convention	(and,	until	this	year,	the	convention	that	wrote	the	party	platform)	from	Charlotte,	NorthCarolina,	to	Jacksonville,	Florida.	Most	importantly,	his	convention	speech	will	be	held	in	Jacksonville.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: Primary Primers: Moving the Republican convention is all about Trump’s ego – not his reelection Page 1 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-07-01Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/07/01/primary-primers-moving-the-republican-convention-is-all-about-trumps-ego-not-his-reelection/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Why	is	he	doing	this?It	is	unclear	why	Trump	is	spending	time	thinking	about	his	convention	speech,	but	there	are	three	plausibleexplanations.	First,	Trump	and	Republicans	are	increasingly	worried	about	Florida;	a	loss	in	Florida	would	bedevastating	for	Trump’s	re-election	prospects.	Second,	Trump	and	Republicans	are	increasingly	concerned	aboutsocial	unrest	disrupting	large	elements	of	his	convention;	a	move	to	Jacksonville	might	mitigate	some	of	thoseconcerns.	And	third,	Trump	–	ever	the	showman	–	is	concerned	that	social-distancing	guidelines	in	North	Carolinawould	undermine	his	preference	for	a	packed,	celebratory	nominating	convention.RNC2016	by	Matt	Shiffler	Photography	is	licensed	under	CC-BY-NC-SA-2.0Florida’s	importance	for	TrumpThe	electoral	prospects	of	Trump	in	Florida	are	growing	increasingly	daunting.	Despite	my	earlier	claims	that	the2020	presidential	election	will	not	hinge	on	the	Sunshine	State,	Florida	has	started	to	look	like	a	critical	tipping-point.	If	we	assume	that	Democratic	nominee,	former	Vice	President	Joe	Biden	can	guarantee	the	twenty	statesplus	Washington	DC	that	Hillary	Clinton	won	in	2016	–	worth	232	electoral	votes	–	then	he	needs	38	more	electoralvotes	to	become	President.	Statewide	polling	of	the	2020	race	in	recent	weeks	indicates	that	Biden	is	very	likely	towin	Michigan	(which	has	16	electoral	votes),	helped	by	Trump’s	own	mis-steps	in	the	state.	A	win	in	Florida	(with	29electoral	votes)	–	where	recent	polls	show	Biden	leading	by	as	much	as	eleven	points	–	would	earn	Biden	277electoral	votes	and	the	presidency.	If	this	happens,	Biden	can	even	afford	to	lose	Pennsylvania,	Wisconsin,Arizona,	or	North	Carolina,	as	shown	Figure	2	below.Figure	2	–	Speculative	2020	presidential	election	mapUSApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: Primary Primers: Moving the Republican convention is all about Trump’s ego – not his reelection Page 2 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-07-01Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/07/01/primary-primers-moving-the-republican-convention-is-all-about-trumps-ego-not-his-reelection/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/Source:	270toWinIt’s	clear	that	for	Trump,	Florida	has	become	a	must-win	state.	Moving	the	nominating	convention	to	Jacksonvillemay	give	Trump	a	temporary	post-convention	boost	in	polling	there,	and	may	give	him	an	enduring	boost	in	supportin	the	Jacksonville	metropolitan	area.	A	spate	of	new	polls	show	Trump	losing	Florida	by	an	average	of	sevenpercentage	points,	showing	how	critical	it	is	he	tighten	the	race.	In	light	of	this	information,	the	move	to	Jacksonvilleappears	to	be	a	smart	strategy.#BlackLivesMatter	and	the	move	to	JacksonvilleThat	said,	Jacksonville’s	interest	to	Trump	and	Republicans	may	have	more	to	do	with	the	Black	Lives	Matterprotests	than	electoral	advantage.	Charlotte	is	an	ethnically	diverse	city	where	Black/African	American	citizensrepresent	35	percent	of	the	population.	By	contrast,	Jacksonville	is	significantly	less	diverse;	only	13.4	percent	ofthe	city’s	population	are	Black/African	American.	While	both	cities	are	racially	segregated,	the	heavier	populationdensity	of	Charlotte	relative	to	Jacksonville	may	have	convinced	the	President	that	Black	Lives	Matterdemonstrations,	or	anti-Trump	protesters,	in	Charlotte	could	be	substantially	larger	and	more	effective	at	disruptingthe	convention.	Such	disruptions	might	erode	any	post-convention	polling	boost,	and	further	damage	his	electoralchances.	Again,	the	move	to	Jacksonville	appears	to	be	a	smart	calculation.Additionally,	the	Democratic	Governor	of	North	Carolina,	Roy	Cooper,	has	signaled	support	for	the	Black	LivesMatter	movement	and	told	the	Republican	National	Committee	that,	due	to	the	pandemic,	“a	full-scale	convention	isvery	unlikely.”	By	contrast,	Florida	Governor	Ron	DeSantis,	a	Republican,	has	been	accused	of	manipulatingcoronavirus	statistics	to	permit	easing	social	distancing	measures	and	has	largely	ignored	the	Black	Lives	Mattermovement.	President	Trump	may	see	in	DeSantis	an	ally	who	would	restrict	large	protests	around	the	conventionsite	and	permit	a	convention	more	in	line	with	Trump’s	personal	preferences.Trump	wants	a	showpiece	conventionThis	brings	us	to	the	third	plausible	explanation:	Donald	Trump	wants	a	made-for-TV	convention,	and	NorthCarolina’s	coronavirus	restrictions	have	angered	him.	According	to	an	essay	from	POLITICO,	Trump	sees	hispresidency	through	the	lens	of	large	events	such	as	a	nominating	convention:USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: Primary Primers: Moving the Republican convention is all about Trump’s ego – not his reelection Page 3 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-07-01Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/07/01/primary-primers-moving-the-republican-convention-is-all-about-trumps-ego-not-his-reelection/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/For	all	his	norm-breaking,	Trump	adores	old-fashioned	pageantry.	He	has	waxed	enthusiastic	aboutmilitary	parades	and	reveled	in	royal	red-carpet	treatment	overseas.	And	little	has	captivated	him	asmuch	as	the	lively	quadrennial	jamborees	when	a	political	party	chooses	its	presidential	candidate.Indeed,	according	to	GOP	operatives	I	spoke	to	who	were	with	him	32	years	ago	at	their	party’sconvention	in	New	Orleans,	the	four-day	crescendo	of	public	affirmation	is	what	piqued	his	interest	in	thepresidency	in	the	first	place.Other	news	corroborates	this	argument.	A	recent	essay	from	The	Atlantic	argues	that	the	Trump	re-electioncampaign	is	spending	a	large	amount	of	campaign	resources	to	reassure	Trump’s	concern	that	he	is	losing:There	is,	however,	one	obsessive	television	viewer	in	the	D.C.	area	whom	the	ads	can	sway:Trump.	The	Daily	Beast	reported	earlier	this	week	that	the	hope	is	to	pacify	the	president,	who	hasgotten	more	agitated	about	his	reelection	prospects	as	the	polls,	the	economy,	and	the	pandemic	all	lookgloomy	for	him.Further,	Trump’s	recent,	underwhelming	rally	in	Tulsa	may	make	him	more	anxious	to	have	a	made-for-TV	momentwith	large,	adulatory	crowds.	From	this	perspective,	the	move	from	Charlotte	to	Jacksonville	is	not	a	strategiccalculus,	but	addresses	a	need	for	positive	reinforcement	during	what	will	be	an	incredibly	brutal,	negative	re-election	campaign.	Moving	the	nominating	convention	to	Jacksonville	will	allow	the	President	to	stage	an	event	infront	of	a	friendly	venue,	without	distraction	from	the	massive	disruption	to	social	and	economic	life	going	on	outsidethe	convention	hall.	Thus,	the	RNC’s	move	has	no	strategic	benefit	to	the	Republican	Party,	but	acts	on	behalf	ofthe	personal	interests	of	the	president.	Indeed,	the	move	has	angered	top	officials	in	the	Republican	Party	of	NorthCarolina,	who	publicly	lambasted	the	national	party.Regardless	of	the	explanation,	the	truth	is	that	moving	the	convention	is	unlikely	to	make	a	significant	difference	tothe	election	result,	despite	what	Trump	thinks.	If	the	economy	rebounds,	the	protests	disappear,	andtreatments/vaccines	for	the	virus	emerge	before	November,	those	news	events	are	likely	to	assure	PresidentTrump’s	re-election.	If	the	economy	continues	to	falter,	social	unrest	continues,	and	the	virus	continues	killing	largenumbers	of	Americans,	no	amount	of	tweaking	the	national	convention	will	save	Donald	Trump	from	an	electoralcatastrophe.	It	is	this	reality	that	makes	his	prioritization	of	the	convention	so	puzzling.	It	is	unclear	why	he	does	notfocus	on	combating	the	virus,	protecting	Americans	from	the	economic	contraction,	or	addressing	the	root	causesof	police	brutality	and	systemic	racism.	As	to	his	motives,	we	can	only	speculate.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	author,	and	not	the	position	of	USAPP	–	American	Politics	and	Policy,	norof	the	London	School	of	Economics.	Shortened	URL	for	this	post:	https://bit.ly/2YLi46yAbout	the	authorKevin	Fahey	–	Swansea	UniversityKevin	Fahey	is	a	Lecturer	in	Politics	in	the	Department	of	Political	&	Cultural	Studies	at	SwanseaUniversity.	He	studies	study	political	institutions	and	elite	behavior,	with	specialization	in	subnationalpolitics.USApp – American Politics and Policy Blog: Primary Primers: Moving the Republican convention is all about Trump’s ego – not his reelection Page 4 of 4		Date originally posted: 2020-07-01Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2020/07/01/primary-primers-moving-the-republican-convention-is-all-about-trumps-ego-not-his-reelection/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/

Primary primers: moving the Republican convention is all about Trump’s ego – not his reelection

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Primary primers: moving the Republican convention is all about Trump’s ego – not his reelection

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