Poland will hold the first round of its delayed presidential election on Sunday. Piotr Zagórski and Fernando Casal Bértoa present five paradoxes that make the election exceptional

Casal Bértoa, Fernando

Zagórski, Piotr

English

LSE Research Online

Five	paradoxes	ahead	of	this	Sunday’s	presidentialelection	in	PolandPoland	will	hold	the	first	round	of	its	delayed	presidential	election	on	Sunday.	PiotrZagórski	and	Fernando	Casal	Bértoa	present	five	paradoxes	that	make	the	electionexceptional.Poles	will	vote	in	a	presidential	election	this	Sunday	for	the	seventh	time	since	thecountry’s	democratic	transition	in	1989.	Initially	scheduled	for	early	May,	the	vote	had	tobe	postponed	due	to	Covid-19.	Surprisingly,	many	things	have	changed	since	then.	The	stakes	are	high	and	theoutcome	is	uncertain.	The	government	is	hoping	for	President	Andrzej	Duda’s	reelection.	The	opposition	is	bankingon	a	victory	that	might	help	them	to	restore	democratic	checks	and	balances.	Here	are	five	paradoxes	that	makethe	contest	exceptional.1.	The	election	has	already	taken	placeThe	presidential	election	was	first	scheduled	for	10	May.	However,	like	in	other	post-communist	countries	(e.g.North	Macedonia,	Serbia)	and	worldwide,	plans	had	to	be	changed	due	to	Covid-19.	This	was	in	spite	of	variousgovernment	attempts	to	hold	the	election	as	originally	scheduled,	against	the	opinion	of	the	Electoral	Commission,the	opposition,	various	international	organisations,	political	experts	and	a	majority	of	the	public.Legally,	and	after	a	roller	coaster	of	events	that	almost	led	to	the	collapse	of	the	coalition	government,	thepresidential	election	was	held	as	scheduled.	However,	given	the	lack	of	official	candidates	and	votes	cast,	theywere	declared	void.	New	elections	were	soon	scheduled	for	28	June	as	the	result	of	a	political	compromisebetween	the	government	and	the	opposition.	They	had	different	reasons	though.	While	the	biggest	opposition	partyused	the	opportunity	to	change	its	candidate	and	try	to	gain	ground,	the	government	was	keen	to	hold	the	electionsbefore	the	economic	crisis	–	expected	to	hit	the	country	after	the	summer	–	took	its	toll.2.	The	pandemic	is	still	ongoingThere	were	numerous	reasons	to	postpone	the	election	in	May:	from	the	difficulties	of	campaigning	under	lockdownconditions,	to	the	impossibility	of	organising	postal	voting	at	short	notice.	However,	despite	the	fact	that	the	rate	ofnew	Covid-19	cases	is	currently	larger	than	it	was	in	May	(on	average	375	daily	cases	in	June	in	contrast	to	352	inMay),	no	presidential	candidate	has	expressed	opposition	to	holding	the	rescheduled	vote.3.	The	main	challenger	was	not	even	a	candidate	in	MaySeeing	the	latest	trends	in	opinion	polls,	it	is	no	wonder	that	Jarosław	Kaczyński,	leader	of	the	main	governing	partyLaw	and	Justice	(PiS),	pushed	for	holding	the	elections	in	May.	Back	then,	President	Duda,	who	is	backed	by	Lawand	Justice,	may	well	have	managed	to	win	the	contest	in	the	first	round.	Now,	he	faces	a	close	race.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Five paradoxes ahead of this Sunday’s presidential election in Poland Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-06-27Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/06/27/five-paradoxes-ahead-of-this-sundays-presidential-election-in-poland/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Competing	signs	at	a	campaign	event	in	June,	Credit:	Krzysztof	Pacholak	/	Greenpeace	(CC	BY-ND	2.0)There	are	two	main	reasons	for	the	change	in	public	opinion.	On	the	one	hand,	many	Poles	think	that	the	way	thegovernment	handled	the	self-triggered	“electoral	crisis”	was	far	from	ideal.	On	the	other	hand,	the	main	oppositioncandidate,	from	the	Civic	Platform	(PO)	which	governed	the	country	between	2007	and	2015,	has	changed.	RafałTrzaskowski,	Mayor	of	Warsaw	and	a	former	minister	in	Donald	Tusk’s	government,	replaced	the	less	charismatic,and	sole	female	candidate,	Małgorzata	Kidawa-Błońska	in	the	middle	of	May.	Since	then,	Civic	Platform’s	candidatehas	regained	lost	ground.4.	The	candidate	with	the	best	chance	of	beating	Duda	is	unlikely	to	make	it	to	the	second	roundThe	most	probable	outcome	is	a	run-off	between	Duda	(who	is	currently	around	42	percent	in	the	polls)	andTrzaskowski	(who	is	around	15	points	behind).	However,	it	is	the	third	most	popular	candidate,	the	conservativejournalist	Szymon	Hołownia,	who,	running	as	an	independent,	would	have	the	highest	chance	to	defeat	PresidentDuda	in	the	second	round.	This	is	because	while	almost	all	of	Trzaskowski’s	voters	are	willing	to	vote	for	Hołowniain	a	hypothetical	second	round,	only	three	out	of	four	of	Hołownia’s	supporters	declare	support	for	the	more	liberalTrzaskowski.	Paradoxically,	however,	with	just	around	11	percent	of	support	in	the	latest	polls,	Hołownia	is	unlikelyto	make	it.5.	Despite	everything,	Poland’s	opposition	might	yet	winSince	the	transition	to	democracy	in	Poland	after	the	fall	of	the	Berlin	Wall,	the	only	Polish	President	who	hasmanaged	to	be	reelected	is	Aleksander	Kwaśniewski	in	2001.	This	time	around,	however,	there	is	no	doubt	thatDuda	remains	the	favourite,	backed	as	he	is	by	the	government,	the	Catholic	Church,	and	public	media.In	what	appeared	to	be	a	tailor-made	opportunity	given	by	the	country’s	public	media	outlet,	which	was	criticised	fora	lack	of	balance	by	the	OSCE’s	Office	for	Democratic	Institutions	and	Human	Rights	during	the	2019	parliamentaryelection,	Duda	failed	to	sell	a	more	moderate	image	in	a	TV	debate	last	week.	The	debate	centred	around	LGBTissues	and	was	marred	by	ideological	polarisation.	Duda	has	previously	compared	‘LGBT	ideology’	to	communism.The	probability	that	a	second	round	will	take	place	is	higher	than	ever,	as	Duda’s	electoral	campaign	team	recentlyadmitted.	They	have	pinned	their	hopes	on	the	possibility	that	Duda’s	sudden	visit	to	the	White	House	four	daysbefore	the	election	will	give	him	a	last-minute	boost.	However,	fears	of	defeat	might	be	creating	a	sense	ofdesperation	in	some	of	the	promises	that	have	been	put	forward	by	government	ministers.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Five paradoxes ahead of this Sunday’s presidential election in Poland Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-06-27Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/06/27/five-paradoxes-ahead-of-this-sundays-presidential-election-in-poland/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/What	is	beyond	doubt,	at	least	according	to	the	polls,	is	that	an	eventual	run-off	would	be	extremely	competitive.And	this	is	where	concerns	about	judicial	independence	in	the	country,	under	close	scrutiny	by	the	European	Unionand	other	international	organisations	since	PiS’	victory	in	2015,	arise.	Especially	when	a	newly	created	Chamber	inthe	Supreme	Court,	born	under	the	suspicion	of	questionable	independence	and	impartiality,	will	decide	anyelectoral	litigation.	When	even	0.1	percent	of	votes	can	determine	who	wins,	and	in	view	of	Poland’s	recentdemocratic	backsliding,	this	is	hardly	reassuring.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	authors,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics._________________________________About	the	authorsPiotr	Zagórski	–	Autonomous	University	of	MadridPiotr	Zagórski	is	a	PhD	candidate	at	the	Autonomous	University	of	Madrid.	He	is	on	Twitter	@PiotrZag–Fernando	Casal	Bértoa	–	University	of	NottinghamFernando	Casal	Bértoa	is	an	Associate	Professor	at	the	University	of	Nottingham.	He	ison	Twitter	@CasalBertoaLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: Five paradoxes ahead of this Sunday’s presidential election in Poland Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-06-27Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/06/27/five-paradoxes-ahead-of-this-sundays-presidential-election-in-poland/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

Five paradoxes ahead of this sunday’s presidential election in Poland

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Five paradoxes ahead of this sunday’s presidential election in Poland

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