Francesca Luppi, Bruno Arpino,and Alessandro Rosina find that the effect of the pandemic on fertility intentions is negative across Europe. Such consequences only exacerbate the effects of the Great Recession, as both crises have affected the fertility plans of the same generation

Arpino, Bruno

Luppi, Francesca

Rosina, Alessandro

English

LSE Research Online

There	is	no	evidence	of	a	Covid-19	baby	boom	inEurope	–	but	there	is	of	a	bustWill	Covid-19	lead	to	a	baby	boom	in	Europe?	Francesca	Luppi,	BrunoArpino	and	Alessandro	Rosina	find	that	the	effect	of	the	pandemic	onfertility	intentions	is	negative	across	Europe.	Such	consequences	onlyexacerbate	the	effects	of	the	Great	Recession,	as	both	crises	have	affectedthe	fertility	plans	of	the	same	generation.At	the	beginning	of	the	SARS-CoV-2	pandemic	there	were	hypotheses	about	whether	the	lockdown	would	result	ina	new	‘baby	boom’.	However,	one	of	the	consequences	of	this	particular	health	emergency	has	been	one	of	themost	severe	economic	crises	of	the	last	century,	with	such	events	always	being	followed	by	a	decline	in	fertilityrates.	So	it	is	not	surprising	that	the	first	empirical	evidence	available	does	not	support	the	possibility	of	a	lockdownbaby	boom.This	conclusion	comes	from	our	analysis	of	data	derived	from	a	European	international	survey	conducted	onrepresentative	samples	of	the	young	population	(i.e.	18-24)	and	young	adults	(i.e.	25-34).	Our	survey	took	placebetween	the	last	week	of	March	and	the	first	week	of	April	2020	in	five	European	countries	–	France,	Germany,Italy,	Spain	and	UK.	According	to	our	data,	the	impact	of	the	health	and	economic	crises	on	fertility	plans	differsacross	countries,	but	it	is	always	strong	and	negative.In	France	and	Germany,	more	than	50%	of	the	sample	are	postponing	their	fertility	plans	in	contrast	to	more	than30%	who	are	not.	In	Spain,	people	are	more	prone	to	postpone	(about	50%)	or	abandon	(29%)	their	decision	tohave	a	child,	instead	of	still	planning.	In	the	UK,	the	proportion	of	still-planners	is	lower	(23%)	compared	to	that	inFrance	and	Germany,	but	those	who	are	postponing	their	plans	to	have	a	child	outnumber	those	in	Spain	(58%);	alower	proportion	have	abandoned	such	plans	altogether	(19%).	Finally,	in	Italy	the	prevalence	of	abandoners	issubstantially	higher	than	in	the	other	countries	(about	37%),	with	an	average	proportion	of	still-planners.The	huge	proportion	of	people	postponing	or	abandoning	their	fertility	plans	at	least	for	2020	–	and	in	some	casesindefinitely	–	seems	to	be	driven	by	country-specific	factors,	which	can	exacerbate	or	reduce	the	negative	effect	ofthe	economic	crisis.	This	interpretation	is	suggested	by	the	fact	that	some	individual	socio-demographiccharacteristics	(such	as	age,	education,	living	in	regions	with	high	prevalence	of	COVID-19	cases)	do	not	showsimilar	paths	of	association	with	fertility	plans	across	countries.Instead,	countries	in	which	young	people	are	now	more	prone	to	abandon	their	fertility	plans	are	the	ones	wherefertility	was	already	very	low	(i.e.	Italy	and	Spain),	compared	to	the	countries	where	fertility	was	much	higher	andfertility	plans	today	seem	to	be	more	protected.	In	the	latter	case,	a	higher	proportion	of	people	are	still	planning	tohave	a	child	this	year	or	they	are	postponing	instead	of	abandoning	their	fertility	plans.	This	suggests	that	the	samedrivers	of	previous	fertility	trends	may	explain	the	different	impact	of	the	pandemic	on	current	intentions.Of	course,	Italy	and	Spain,	more	than	the	other	countries	in	our	sample,	are	still	suffering	from	the	consequences	ofthe	Great	Recession.	The	threat	of	a	new	crisis,	which	would	affect	the	same	young	people	as	the	previous	one,can	be	particularly	frightening,	while	the	high	level	of	youth	unemployment	rate	in	the	two	countries	(the	highest	inEurope)	certainly	does	not	offer	a	reassuring	background	to	face	the	consequences	of	the	present	economic	crisis.Another	factor	is	related	to	women	in	the	labour	market.	The	countries	in	our	sample	that	now	suffer	the	greatestlosses	in	terms	of	fertility	intentions	are	also	those	with	the	lowest	female	employment	rates	in	Europe,	as	well	asthe	lowest	proportion	of	infants	enrolled	in	childcare	services.	It	is	well-grounded	in	the	literature	that	women’semployment	is	positively	related	to	fertility.	And	the	availability	(and	affordability)	of	childcare	services	is	one	of	thedrivers	of	the	female	presence	in	the	labour	market.	In	Italy	and	Spain,	the	lack	of	an	adequate	system	of	publicchildcare	services	has	often	been	bypassed	by	relying	on	grandparents;	this	option	is	nevertheless	no	longeravailable	due	to	the	restrictions	of	the	lockdowns.	If	we	consider	that	the	lockdown	experience	might	haveexacerbated	the	traditional	division	of	gender	roles,	the	negative	returns	on	fertility	can	be	expected	especially	incountries	where	the	gap	in	the	amount	of	paid	and	unpaid	work	done	by	women	and	men	was	high	in	the	pre-crisisperiod,	such	as	in	Italy	and	Spain.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: There is no evidence of a Covid-19 baby boom in Europe – but there is of a bust Page 1 of 2		Date originally posted: 2020-06-16Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/06/16/there-is-no-evidence-of-a-covid-19-baby-boom-in-europe-but-there-is-of-a-bust/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Fertility	rates	in	Europe	were	already	a	concern	in	most	countries	we	studied:	they	were	declining	long	before	thepandemic.	Moreover,	the	negative	consequences	of	today’s	crisis	on	fertility	add	up	to	the	effect	of	the	GreatRecession,	as	both	insist	on	the	same	generation	(i.e.	those	who	today	are	in	their	30s).	For	this	reason,	policyefforts	for	reversing	fertility	trends	are	now	urgent	and	must	be	prompt.	Supporting	young	people,	and	women	inparticular,	through	employment	is	necessary	to	strengthen	the	economic	recovery	of	the	countries	most	affected	bythe	health	emergency,	to	reduce	the	risk	of	poverty	among	young	families,	and	consequently	to	support	fertilitychoices.	Moreover,	a	more	balanced	sharing	of	caring	tasks	should	be	promoted,	to	relieve	women	of	their	greaterfamily	workload.	Making	flexible	working	available	and	accessible	may	help	meet	different	paid	work	and	familyneeds.	Meanwhile,	women’s	empowerment	and	gender	equality	in	paid	and	unpaid	work	is	needed:	to	achieve	that,governments	should	improve	parental	–	and	in	particular	father’s	–	leaves	system	and	childcare	services,	especiallythose	for	infants,	which	would	support	a	better	conciliation	of	family	and	work	tasks	within	couples.Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	draws	on	the	authors’	research	and	originally	appeared	at	our	sister	site,	British	Politics	andPolicy	at	LSE.	It	gives	the	views	of	the	authors,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics.	Featured	image	credit:	by	Luma	Pimentel	on	Unsplash.	_________________________________About	the	authorsFrancesca	Luppi	–	Università	Cattolica	del	Sacro	CuoreFrancesca	Luppi	is	a	Post-doctoral	Researcher	in	Demography	in	the	Department	of	Statistics	atUniversità	Cattolica	del	Sacro	Cuore,	Milan.–Bruno	Arpino	–	University	of	FlorenceBruno	Arpino	is	an	Associate	Professor	in	the	Department	of	Statistics,	ComputerScience,	Applications	at	the	University	of	Florence.–Alessandro	Rosina	–	Università	Cattolica	del	Sacro	CuoreAlessandro	Rosina	is	a	Professor	of	Demography	and	Social	statistics	atthe	Università	Cattolica	del	Sacro	Cuore,	Milan.LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: There is no evidence of a Covid-19 baby boom in Europe – but there is of a bust Page 2 of 2		Date originally posted: 2020-06-16Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/06/16/there-is-no-evidence-of-a-covid-19-baby-boom-in-europe-but-there-is-of-a-bust/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

There is no evidence of a COVID-19 baby boom in Europe – but there is of a bust

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There is no evidence of a COVID-19 baby boom in Europe – but there is of a bust

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