Turnout in European Parliament elections declined in every vote held between 1979 and 2014. Ahead of the 2019 elections, the EU launched an initiative, ‘This time I’m voting’, in the hope of raising public interest. While turnout did increase in the 2019 contest, it remains an open question as to whether such campaign efforts help mobilise citizens. Drawing on a new study, Franziska Marquart, Andreas C. Goldberg and Claes H. de Vreese assess the role of individuals’ passive exposure to and active engagement with the 2019 campaign, finding that not all campaign efforts helped to increase turnout, with some even serving to demobilise the European electorate

De Vreese, Claes H.

Goldberg, Andreas C.

Marquart, Franziska

English

LSE Research Online

This	time	I’m	(not)	voting:	How	campaign	factorsaffect	European	citizens’	turnout	in	EP	electionsTurnout	in	European	Parliament	elections	declined	in	every	vote	heldbetween	1979	and	2014.	Ahead	of	the	2019	elections,	the	EU	launched	aninitiative,	‘This	time	I’m	voting’,	in	the	hope	of	raising	public	interest.	Whileturnout	did	increase	in	the	2019	contest,	it	remains	an	open	question	as	towhether	such	campaign	efforts	help	mobilise	citizens.	Drawing	on	a	newstudy,	Franziska	Marquart,	Andreas	C.	Goldberg	and	Claes	H.	de	Vreeseassess	the	role	of	individuals’	passive	exposure	to	and	active	engagement	with	the	2019	campaign,	finding	that	notall	campaign	efforts	helped	to	increase	turnout,	with	some	even	serving	to	demobilise	the	European	electorate.Although	research	has	found	that	a	number	of	factors	play	a	role	for	citizens’	participation	in	European	Parliament(EP)	elections,	few	studies	assess	the	specific	EP	election	campaign	environment	and	its	influence	on	turnout.	Littleinformation	exists	on	whether	or	not,	for	example,	online	and	offline	exposure	to	political	parties’	advertisements	orinformational	material,	interpersonal	communication,	and	active	searches	for	information	about	the	elections	cancontribute	to	mobilising	the	European	electorate.	While	efforts	such	as	the	EP’s	2019	‘This	time	I’m	voting!’	initiativemay	be	an	important	part	of	the	information	environment	in	the	run-up	to	an	election,	empirical	evidence	on	EPcampaign	effects	remains	scarce.Election	campaigns	generally	aim	at	increasing	turnout	through	information	and	mobilisation	efforts	and	are	part	ofthe	larger	information	environment.	Campaign	efforts	provide	citizens	with	crucial	information,	motivate	them	toseek	out	additional	information	about	the	elections,	and	mobilise	them	to	go	to	the	polls.	Citizens	can	be	exposed	toinformation	about	an	election	by	different	actors	and	through	various	(media)	outlets,	and	they	can	decide	toengage	with	the	campaign	themselves,	for	example	by	discussing	politics	within	their	personal	network.	EuropeanParliament	elections	are	a	particularly	relevant	case	in	which	to	study	the	influence	of	such	campaign	factors,	asresearch	demonstrates	that	citizens’	personal	motivation	plays	a	larger	role	for	turnout	on	the	supranational	levelbecause	the	initial	level	of	participation	is	lower.Credit:	CC	BY	4.0:	©	European	Union	2019	–	Source:	EPLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: This time I’m (not) voting: How campaign factors affect European citizens’ turnout in EP elections Page 1 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-08-06Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/08/06/this-time-im-not-voting-how-campaign-factors-affect-european-citizens-turnout-in-ep-elections/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/In	a	recent	study,	we	measured	citizens’	exposure	to	and	engagement	with	a	large	number	of	different	electioncampaign	activities	before	the	2019	EP	elections,	using	original	survey	data	from	the	Czech	Republic,	Denmark,France,	Germany,	Greece,	Hungary,	the	Netherlands,	Poland,	Spain,	and	Sweden.	We	assessed	how	oftencitizens	were	exposed	to	party	communication,	political	advertisements,	and	information	about	the	2019	EPelections	in	the	news	media,	and	how	frequently	they	engaged	with	the	campaign	(e.g.,	by	attending	events	orsearching	for	election-related	information	online).	We	also	measured	how	often	they	discussed	EU-topics	withfamily	members,	friends,	and	acquaintances,	or	tried	to	convince	others	(what)	to	vote	(for).	Our	results	paint	amixed	picture	of	campaign	effects	for	citizens’	turnout	in	EP	elections.Contrary	to	our	expectations,	not	all	forms	of	campaign	engagement	increase	the	likelihood	that	EU	citizens	go	tothe	polls.	For	instance,	whereas	passive	exposure	to	political	posters	positively	affects	electoral	participation,exposure	to	analogue	media	content	depresses	turnout;	actively	attending	to	party	material	increases	the	chancesthat	citizens	cast	their	vote,	while	sharing	election-related	content	online	decreases	it.	Political	conversations	withfamily	members	make	electoral	participation	more	likely,	but	interpersonal	communication	online	demobilises	theEuropean	electorate.	Importantly,	campaign	effects	are	not	uniform	across	voter	groups,	but	vary	for	those	citizensthat	had	already	decided	to	vote,	abstain,	or	were	indecisive	about	their	electoral	participation	prior	to	thecampaign.Active	engagement	with	the	electoral	campaign	can	change	the	minds	of	those	individuals	that	had	initially	beencertain	they	would	abstain	from	voting,	while	mere	reminders	such	as	political	posters	are	insufficient	to	provide	anadequate	boost	for	them.	In	other	words,	these	citizens	know	the	election	is	going	to	take	place,	but	it	takes	a	lot	ofeffort	to	change	their	minds	and	have	them	go	to	the	polls.	In	contrast,	‘certain’	voters	may	be	demobilised	fromcasting	their	vote	if	they	discuss	EU	politics	online.	Since	discussion	networks	on	social	media	tend	to	be	moreheterogeneous	than	relationships	that	we	have	with	people	in	our	immediate	environment,	citizens	with	a	positiveEU	attitude	might	encounter	demobilising	discussion	partners	online.	Ultimately,	such	interpersonal	discussion	maylead	citizens	to	abstain	on	Election	Day	–	even	if	they	initially	had	a	strong	intention	to	vote.Attending	events	related	to	the	campaign	also	strongly	depresses	turnout	among	initially	‘certain’	voters.	Oneconceivable	explanation	may	lie	in	a	ceiling	effect,	assuming	that	those	people	who	attend	events	are	a	highlymotivated	group	of	citizens	already	–	their	electoral	participation,	if	moving	in	any	direction,	can	only	go	down.Notably,	‘certain’	voters	can	also	be	further	strengthened	in	their	turnout	intention,	which	highlights	the	necessity	toconsider	them	a	relevant	target	group	for	campaigners.	For	them,	seeing	political	posters	(very)	often	seems	toserve	as	a	visual	reminder	of	Election	Day,	and	active	searches	for	information	online	further	strengthen	theirconviction.	Presumably,	the	more	effort	one	invests	into	finding	information	about	the	election	online,	the	more	oneis	convinced	about	the	importance	of	casting	one’s	vote.Prior	research	indicates	that	campaign	effects	might	be	largest	for	those	parts	of	the	population	that	have	not	madeup	their	mind	about	whether	to	vote	or	abstain	in	an	election.	Indeed,	‘uncertain’	respondents	in	our	study	were	themost	strongly	affected	in	their	decision	to	turn	out	–	both	positively	and	negatively.	We	observe	negative	effects	forexposure	to	analogue	media	content	and	communication	with	others	online,	while	active	information	search	booststurnout	for	‘uncertain’	citizens.	This	group	can	also	be	persuaded	to	go	to	the	polls	through	discussions	with	familymembers	and	close	friends.	These	findings	align	with	the	large	body	of	research	highlighting	the	importance	ofdiscussion	network	characteristics	and	tie	strength	for	politically	relevant	outcomes.Our	results	further	show	that	rather	than	looking	at	the	simple	offline/online	dichotomy,	we	should	consider	thespecific	role	of	social	media	platforms.	Whether	citizens	post	something	about	the	elections	or	mention	their	vote	onsocial	media;	whether	they	see	political	parties’	ads	on	social	media	or	talk	about	EU	politics	with	people	online	–	allthese	forms	of	exposure	or	activity	decrease	the	likelihood	that	citizens	are	going	to	cast	their	vote,	and	they	do	soacross	voter	groups.	Partly,	these	negative	effects	may	be	attributable	to	perceptions	of	so-called	slacktivistparticipation,	that	is,	the	idea	that	social	media	activities	alone	are	sufficient	to	make	a	meaningful	political	impact.As	a	result,	people	may	feel	that	they	have	already	‘done	their	part’	and	refrain	from	participating	in	politics	offline.The	information	environment	can	play	a	crucial	role	in	mobilising	the	European	electorate.	However,	contrary	to	theintention	of	the	EU’s	campaign	slogan	‘This	time	I’m	voting’,	not	all	efforts	increase	turnout	on	Election	Day.Instead,	mobilisation	efforts	are	multifaceted,	and	we	need	to	account	for	different	forms	of	exposure	andengagement	to	be	able	to	provide	a	comprehensive	picture	of	factors	influencing	turnout	in	EP	elections.For	more	information,	see	the	authors’	accompanying	study	at	European	Union	PoliticsLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: This time I’m (not) voting: How campaign factors affect European citizens’ turnout in EP elections Page 2 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-08-06Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/08/06/this-time-im-not-voting-how-campaign-factors-affect-european-citizens-turnout-in-ep-elections/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/Please	read	our	comments	policy	before	commenting.Note:	This	article	gives	the	views	of	the	authors,	not	the	position	of	EUROPP	–	European	Politics	and	Policy	or	theLondon	School	of	Economics._________________________________About	the	authorsFranziska	Marquart	–	University	of	AmsterdamFranziska	Marquart	is	a	Postdoctoral	Researcher	in	the	Political	Communication	and	Journalismresearch	group	at	the	Amsterdam	School	of	Communication	Research	(ASCoR),	University	ofAmsterdam.	She	works	in	the	ERC-funded	project	EUROPINIONS,	which	investigates	theantecedents	and	consequences	of	public	opinion	towards	the	European	Union.	She	earned	her	PhDfrom	the	University	of	Vienna	in	Austria,	where	she	was	part	of	the	Advertising	and	Media	Effectsresearch	group.	Her	research	focuses	on	political	communication	effects,	experimental	methods,	and	the	impact	ofvisual	communication	in	various	mediated	contexts.	She	is	on	Twitter	@FranziMarquartAndreas	C.	Goldberg	–	University	of	Amsterdam	Andreas	C.	Goldberg	is	a	Postdoctoral	Researcher	and	Lecturer	at	the	Amsterdam	School	ofCommunication	Research	(ASCoR),	University	of	Amsterdam.	He	currently	works	in	theEUROPINIONS	project,	which	analyses	causes	and	consequences	of	change	in	public	opinion	aboutEurope.	He	previously	worked	at	the	Department	of	Political	Science	and	International	Relations	at	theUniversity	of	Geneva,	where	he	also	obtained	his	PhD.	His	research	interests	include	politicalbehaviour,	political	communication,	EU	attitudes	and	survey	research.	He	is	on	Twitter	@andigoleClaes	H.	de	Vreese	–	University	of	AmsterdamClaes	H.	de	Vreese	is	Professor	and	Chair	of	Political	Communication	at	the	Amsterdam	School	ofCommunication	Research	(ASCoR),	University	of	Amsterdam,	and	Faculty	Professor	of	AI,	Data	andDemocracy.	He	directs	the	Center	for	Politics	and	Communication	and	is	the	principal	investigator	ofthe	ERC-funded	EUROPINIONS	project.	His	research	interests	span	from	media,	public	opinion,	andelectoral	behaviour	to	the	role	of	data	and	AI	in	democratic	processes.	He	is	the	current	President	ofthe	International	Communication	Association	and	editor	of	Political	Communication.	He	is	on	Twitter@claesdevreeseLSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog: This time I’m (not) voting: How campaign factors affect European citizens’ turnout in EP elections Page 3 of 3		Date originally posted: 2020-08-06Permalink: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/08/06/this-time-im-not-voting-how-campaign-factors-affect-european-citizens-turnout-in-ep-elections/Blog homepage: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/

This time I’m (not) voting: how campaign factors affect European citizens’ turnout in EP elections

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/106363/1/europpblog_2020_08_06_this_time_im_not_voting_how_campaign_factors.pdf

This time I’m (not) voting: how campaign factors affect European citizens’ turnout in EP elections

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